Penn State appears to be a lock for its first College Football Playoff, but the scenarios are numerous

Coach James Franklin is on the verge of his first playoff berth as Penn State remained the No. 4-ranked team in the College Football Playoffs.

As it stands, Penn State would receive the No. 6 seed and host a first-round matchup against Indiana. If the Nittany Lions win, they would take on Miami. But things could change before Selection Sunday, on Dec. 8.

Of the Power 4, Georgia, Southern Methodist, and Oregon are the only teams that have clinched a conference game berth. The Big 12 has nine teams that could mathematically make the postseason.

With the 32nd-highest strength of schedule and fourth-best strength of record, Penn State (10-1, 7-1 Big Ten) has received favorable rankings from the playoff committee through the weeks. The win over now-No. 23 Illinois has provided validity to Penn State’s resumé.

With a win over Maryland and an Ohio State loss to Michigan on Saturday, Penn State would find itself in the Big Ten championship game against Oregon.

If Penn State can beat the undefeated Ducks, it would almost certainly lock up the No. 1 seed to go with its first-round bye. The championship would trump the close loss to Ohio State and a neutral site, conference championship victory over the top dogs.

At the No. 1 seed, the Lions would face the winner of a Georgia-Tennessee first-round matchup. The seeding could change when Georgia plays the winner of Texas and Texas A&M in the SEC championship game.

It may not be the most favorable draw, though. The committee could select Penn State as a No. 2 seed if Texas wins the SEC. They’d earn a lighter path, playing the winner of the 7-10 matchup, currently slated for Notre Dame and SMU.

Penn State would likely avoid a rematch with Ohio State regardless unless the committee views a non-conference champion Texas team as the best non-conference team.

» READ MORE: Here’s what Penn State head coach James Franklin thinks about the Big Ten vs. SEC debate

Things could get ugly if Penn State loses to Maryland on Saturday (3:30 p.m., Fox29).

Two home losses and close wins over USC, Minnesota, and Bowling Green could give the committee enough reason to kick the Nittany Lions out of the playoffs, though not likely with mainly three-loss SEC teams in the waiting room.

The more unlikely, unfavorable scenario would be Penn State’s dropping below Indiana and into an away playoff game against Notre Dame, Georgia, or Ohio State.

ESPN lists Penn State’s championship odds at 18-1. Those odds likely drop considerably after a bad loss and a road game in three hostile environments. Still, Maryland (4-7, 1-7) has lost four straight and has beaten Penn State in the Franklin era only during the COVID-shortened season.

Fans shouldn’t expect much movement from the rankings for Penn State. Barring unlikely outcomes Saturday, the Nittany Lions have locked up a home playoff game.

The No. 6 or No. 7 seed is their best bet, with Indiana, SMU, and Arizona State (projected Big 12 champion) the most likely opponents. Clemson and Alabama are the current first two teams out, but they likely won’t get a seed of 11 or higher.

The debate comes where the committee compares Penn State and Notre Dame (10-1). The Fighting Irish have dominated almost every opponent, but their early-season loss to now-6-5 Northern Illinois is a stain on their record.

Notre Dame has a win over No. 20 Texas A&M. It also defeated Louisville, Army, and Navy — all ranked at the time of play.

The No. 6 seed provides the easiest path for Penn State, likely facing either Miami, Clemson, or SMU in the second round — depending on who wins the ACC championship.

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