Penn State’s razor-thin ‘margin for error’ cost it a Big Ten title. Can the Nittany Lions overcome their flaws in the CFP?

INDIANAPOLIS — “Margin for error” was the buzz phrase Saturday night after Penn State’s gut-wrenching 45-37 loss in the Big Ten championship game against top-ranked Oregon. James Franklin and his Nittany Lions (11-2) lived on that margin throughout the game.

After overcoming an early 18-point deficit — largely self-inflicted due to three personal-foul penalties in the first quarter and an interception of Drew Allar that led to an Oregon score — Penn State moved the ball at will early in the second half, trailing by seven with all of the momentum swinging in its favor. But on a second-and-9 from the Oregon 27-yard line, Allar’s pass to a wide-open Tyler Warren, who spent most of the game blanketed and “bracketed,” was juggled by the star tight end and fell incomplete. If caught, it would have been first-and-goal for the Nittany Lions with a chance to tie the game.

Instead, Ryan Barker missed a 40-yard field goal two plays later. Oregon’s Tez Johnson, the Big Ten title game MVP (11 receptions, 181 yards), scored a 48-yard touchdown on the ensuing possession to give the Ducks a 38-24 lead.

After Penn State trimmed the lead to eight early in the fourth quarter, Oregon quarterback Dillon Gabriel fumbled the ball with three Nittany Lions players surrounding him in desperate need of a turnover. However, Gabriel recovered the fumble and led the Ducks on a 12-play touchdown drive to put them up 15.

» READ MORE: No. 3 Penn State squanders chance to capture the Big Ten championship against No. 1 Oregon

And yet, despite its rough start, despite the early mistakes, the Nittany Lions had an opportunity to tie the game with 2 minutes, 11 seconds remaining, down 45-37. But after a 9-yard run to open the drive, Allar fired a deep pass to receiver Harrison Wallace that landed in the hands of Ducks defensive back Nikko Reed for the game-sealing interception with 1:54 left.

Those three sequences were a microcosm of Penn State’s inability to flip the “margins” in its favor. And just like in its loss to Ohio State last month that featured two failed red-zone trips, Penn State could not finish when it needed to most at critical junctures.

“We came up short against a really good Ohio State team and now a really good Oregon team,” Penn State defensive back A.J. Harris said. “So I feel like we proved to the country that we definitely belong. We just have to finish these type of ballgames at this point.”

“To be quite frank, we also just made a lot of mistakes,” Nittany Lions defensive tackle Dvon J-Thomas said. “That’s a credit to [Oregon]. When you have such a talented team and you’re playing at an elite level, the margin of error is very, very small.”

Linebacker Dom DeLuca spent a few minutes postgame explaining that Penn State is focusing on “writing your own script for the 2024 season. What’s everyone going to ask you 20-30 years from now?”

Warren, who finished the game with seven receptions (12 targets) for 84 yards, conceded that the offense “missed some plays in the red zone down there to keep the drive going,” although it finished with 523 total yards against Oregon (13-0).

Those mistakes added up, especially for a team with championship aspirations. The missed opportunities — settling for field goals to start both the first and third quarters, losing the turnover battle, and failing to create negative plays defensively against Oregon’s potent offense — hurt Penn State. Franklin, who fell to 1-14 against top-five teams in the AP rankings, admitted as much postgame, detailing that “some of the things they were doing to cause stress and their athleticism also created some of the mistakes and challenges that we made.”

“We just made it harder than it needed to be in the first quarter of the game,” Franklin added later. “And it’s hard to do that against this type of opponent and expect to win.”

» READ MORE: College Football Playoff: Penn State opens against SMU; Oregon seeded No. 1

Despite the loss, Penn State secured a home playoff game and the College Football Playoff’s No. 6 seed. The Nittany Lions will host No. 11 seed Southern Methodist on Dec. 21 (noon, TNT/Max) in the first round of the playoffs.

Like Penn State, the Mustangs lost in their conference final, a 34-31 defeat to No. 12 seed Clemson for the Atlantic Coast Conference title. Franklin met with reporters Sunday and shared his reaction to hosting a playoff game at Beaver Stadium.

“Having a home game I think is huge for a ton of reasons, obviously, hopefully a home-field advantage, also for Happy Valley, the community, should be a win-win for everybody,” Franklin said. “So we’re excited about that. And then with SMU, we’re just getting to know them. I’ve literally got them on the TV right now, starting to get to know them on a obviously much deeper level, understanding what makes them tick, how they operate.”

SMU (11-2) has the No. 7 scoring offense and No. 20 passing offense in college football, led by quarterback Kevin Jennings, a dual-threat player who has accounted for more than 3,400 yards and 27 touchdowns this season. The Mustangs also have a capable running game led by senior running back Brashard Smith, who averages 5.9 yards per carry with 14 touchdowns.

Penn State will use its bye week to go into bowl preparation mode, but the road ahead is just beginning. The winner of Penn State-SMU will play No. 3 seed Boise State in the Fiesta Bowl on Dec. 31 (7:30 p.m., ESPN). But the Nittany Lions aren’t getting ahead of themselves just yet.

“Obviously, there was still some hurt feelings and raw emotions, but overall, I think guys get it and understand that we’ve got a ton of football left in front of us, as long as we handle it the right way,” Franklin said. “And I think our leadership will step up big time.”

Collectively, Penn State finished with its second-best rushing effort of the season with 297 yards against the 22nd-ranked Oregon rushing defense. Running backs Nicholas Singleton and Kaytron Allen combined for 229 of those yards. Singleton rushed for 10.5 yards per carry, his best average of the season, including a 41-yard burst to wake up Penn State’s rushing attack in the first quarter.

It’s a recipe Penn State can carry into the playoffs, especially with a December game in State College. And it’s a positive development that the Nittany Lions were able to impose their will against the No. 1 team in college football.

» READ MORE: James Franklin and Penn State lost the big one, again, to Ohio State.

“I feel like it builds momentum, especially against a team like Oregon,” Singleton said. “Me and Kaytron, we’re the best backfield in the nation. Pick your poison, when one of us are on the field, there’s no drop-off and our O-line is giving us good looks, making big holes, so we just run through.”

One drive that illustrated Penn State’s potential to wear down defenses was a six-play, 97-yard scoring drive, all runs, that allowed Allen to find creases in Oregon’s front seven. He carved up Oregon’s defense for 54 of the 97 yards of that drive, finishing with a game-high 124 rushing yards.

Warren, Penn State’s top offensive weapon, recognizes how a potent rushing attack can open up opportunities for him in the passing game.

“That’s kind of our mentality, we know running the ball is going to be important in every game we play in, and you’ve got Nick [Singleton] and Fat man [Kaytron Allen] back there, and it’s easy to block for them when they can make big plays, make guys miss,” Warren said. “The run game opens up everything on offense. You can’t run the ball, it’s going to be hard being one-dimensional. So that’ll be big for us down the road.”

“I think that’s the credit to the offensive line as well, especially getting the engine going on our front side of our mid-zone to outside zone plays, and allowing Nick and Kaytron to not get hit until they were on the second and third level,” Allar added. “And when they get momentum going, they’re really hard to bring down.”