Here’s why the Eagles are better off without Deshaun Watson | David Murphy

Oftentimes, the line between wisdom and foolishness is only as thick as the piece of rope in your hands. Did the Eagles make the right decision, or did Deshaun Watson not allow them to make the wrong one? At the end of the day, the result is the same. Whether or not Watson was open to the Eagles, whether or not the Eagles were open to him, the former will soon be a Brown, and the latter can go about building their roster the right way.

To understand the magnitude of the bullet that Howie Roseman just dodged, we need to consider a couple of things. The first is the price that the Browns will pay to secure the services of an embattled quarterback who has serious civil lawsuits and a potential NFL suspension hanging over his head: three first-round picks, a third-rounder, and a gigantic new contract worth a reported $230 million over five years, fully guaranteed.

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The second point of consideration is something an NFL source told the Inquirer’s Jeff McLane a year ago, when it was not yet apparent that Watson would miss the entirety of the 2021 season while the subject of a grand jury investigation into a lengthy series of sexual misconduct allegations.

“Howie will give up everything he has for Watson,” the source said.

There are quarterbacks who are worth everything. Watson is not one. The fact that another NFL team was willing to part with three first-round picks and a potential record-setting contract for the former Houston Texans star tells you everything you need to know about the way the NFL views the quarterback position. It also tells you more than a little bit about the league’s moral compass.

Let’s start with the second part of the equation, since it contains the gravest variable in play. The most charitable interpretation of the portrait painted by the 22 civil suits that have been filed against him is that of an entitled celebrity who took advantage of his power differential. Watson no longer be faces the prospect of criminal charges for the various instances of sexual misconduct he allegedly committed on Houston-area massage tables, but the justice system hardly has the final word on questions of ethics and morality.

A franchise quarterback earns a franchise quarterback’s salary because he is paid to be more than just a player. He is paid to be a locker-room leader, a community fixture, an organizational figurehead. Watson may well prove to be all of those things. Right now, though, he is a man who has the potential to alienate a significant portion of a fan base simply by his presence. At best, he is a risk. Everything about his situation, and that of the Eagles, made him a risk not worth taking on.

Even if you somehow managed to ignore the allegations detailed in the civil complaints that have been filed against him, there remain plenty of unresolved questions about the quarterback himself. If Watson couldn’t turn the Texans into serious contenders in four seasons there, what makes anybody think he would have been a sure bet to have the Eagles in contention four years from now?

There are two sets of numbers that don’t get enough attention when Watson’s name comes up: his 28-25 regular-season record, and his one playoff win. The Texans went 4-13 with Watson sitting out last season. The year before, with Watson as the starter, they went 4-12.

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Granted, his individual numbers are about as good as they get. Heading into last season, his 104.7 quarterback rating ranked fifth among quarterbacks between 2018-20 (minimum 17 starts). But look at the won-loss records of the four guys above him: Drew Brees (30-8), Patrick Mahomes (37-8), Russell Wilson (33-15), and Ryan Tannehill (23-14).

If Watson’s individual performance is worth three first-round picks, why has his team’s performance not followed suit? In 2020, nearly 75% of his passing yards came when the Texans were trailing. Take his numbers when leading or tied and you’re left with a season of 4,235 passing yards, 22 touchdowns and 12 interceptions over 544 attempts. His career splits are similar. In 908 attempts when trailing, he’s thrown 61 touchdowns and 16 interceptions and 8,010 yards. In 840 attempts when leading or tied, he’s thrown 43 touchdowns, 20 interceptions, and 6,529 passing yards.

Watson’s talent is undeniable. In a way, that makes the Texans’ resumé with him under center even more suspect. They were a good but not great team in the first three seasons of his career, when Watson happened to be paired with one of the best pass-catchers in NFL history. More than a third of his passing yards during that stretch came on catches by DeAndre Hopkins. Watson’s reliance on Hopkins was notable throughout his first three seasons, as was Hopkins’ penchant for making ridiculous plays on the ball to make something out of nothing.

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In 2020, everyone saw that Watson can put up big numbers without Hopkins. But we have yet to see him do it for a team that finishes better than 4-12.

History has taught us two things when it comes to paying a big price for a quarterback: He had better be a sure thing, and your fans better stand by him. Watson did not check off either box for the Eagles. They might not be a better team without him, but they are surely better off.