Eagles-Chiefs predictions: Our beat writers make their picks for Super Bowl LVII

The Eagles beat writers predict the last game of the season, and the pick is not unanimous.

Philadelphia Eagles quarterback Jalen Hurts (center) and Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes (right) shake hands.Read moreDavid Maialetti / Staff Photographer

by Jeff McLane, EJ Smith, and Josh Tolentino

Published Feb. 10, 2023, 11:05 a.m. ET

Jeff McLane

I see a close game, a coin flip, if you will. Maybe the actual coin flip decides the outcome of this Super Bowl. Both teams when they’ve won the toss have overwhelmingly deferred — the Eagles all 13 times and the Chiefs on 9 of 10. The one time Andy Reid elected to receive, against Jacksonville in Week 10, Doug Pederson dialed up an onside kick and the Jaguars recovered. Most offensive-minded coaches want to defer because they love the idea of double dipping at the end of the first half and the beginning of the second. But if I were Reid, I’d consider taking the ball to open the game if I won the flip. Every coach wants to get a lead — duh — but the Eagles are built to play from ahead and have probably been the best at it of any team in the NFL.

If Nick Sirianni’s squad jumps out to a double-digit lead, that brings the Eagles’ offensive balance more into play and I think Steve Spagnuolo’s suspect defense will struggle against the adaptability of Jalen Hurts in the zone read, run-pass-run option game. Reid will likely counter — as he always does when playing from behind — and drop Patrick Mahomes on nearly every down, which would allow the Eagles’ ferocious pass rush to pin its ears back. Do I think the Eagles will gain such an early margin, even if Reid defers? Probably not. I see a relative shootout that will volley back and forth until the final possession. But the Chiefs’ odds drop dramatically if the Eagles have a decided advantage in the early going.

Mahomes, of course, can rally from nearly any deficit. The Eagles haven’t seen a quarterback of his caliber all season. That’s not their fault. But if Mahomes, Joe Burrow, Josh Allen, Justin Herbert, and Hurts are considered the top five, you have to drop to the next group or the next three — Aaron Rodgers, Kirk Cousins, Dak Prescott — to find a decent quarterback whom Jonathan Gannon’s unit faced. The Eagles can make life difficult for Mahomes, of course, but it may take them some time to get accustomed to defending one of the more accurate and improvisational quarterbacks in the league, even if his ankle is still tender.

The same could be said for the Chiefs facing Hurts. They saw him a year ago and he had success through the air, but both teams are significantly different and I don’t see Sirianni and offensive coordinator Shane Steichen wanting to get into another arms race with Reid. Hurts hasn’t looked the same since his shoulder injury. He had an extra week to get healthy, but from my understanding he won’t be 100%. If there’s a matchup Kansas City needs to win up front, it’s defensive tackle Chris Jones vs. the Eagles’ interior O-line. I know Spagnuolo flexed him outside a year ago with right tackle Lane Johnson out, and some last week vs. the Bengals. But his natural spot is as the three-technique and there should be ways to get him matched up 1 v. 1 vs. guards Isaac Seumalo and Landon Dickerson. Jones had his coming-out party vs. the Eagles in 2017, recording three sacks, two forced fumbles, and an interception. His performance essentially got Seumalo benched and he never got his job back and didn’t start in the Super Bowl. Seumalo a much better player five years later. Dickerson had a very good season, but he’s not as good in pass protection and will be playing with an injured elbow.

The Eagles, conversely, have a decided advantage with whomever they line up over right tackle Andrew Wylie. Haason Reddick could have another field day. Gannon is likely to bracket coverage toward tight end Travis Kelce, and I think the defensive coordinator’s two-high safety coverages are ideal for containing Mahomes. But Mahomes has become more patient without Tyreek Hill, and ultimately, I’m going with the better quarterback. That’s not a knock on Hurts. I just trust Mahomes more in a late-game situation. I may be the only reporter in Philadelphia picking the Chiefs, and I risk having to hear about my selection, should they lose, for the rest of my career. But I’d rather stay true to my analysis than be a homer.

Prediction: Chiefs 31, Eagles 30

EJ Smith

If the Eagles played the Chiefs 10 times, I’m not convinced things wouldn’t end in a 5-5 split.

The two teams aren’t evenly matched in the traditional way — the Eagles have the more talented roster and a handful of matchups to exploit. The Chiefs have Mahomes.

Mahomes is the type of quarterback who can make everything else seem irrelevant when he’s at the peak of his powers. The ankle injury that’s hobbled him the last two games is two-weeks healthier than when he did enough to send the Bengals home, but his health will be an important factor to monitor early on.

History in these games typically favors the team with experienced coaches like Reid and utterly dominant quarterbacks like Mahomes. That’s the case for Kansas City.

The Chiefs have their share of talented players who will pose problems outside of Mahomes, of course. Kelce is a matchup nightmare who will test the Eagles’ zone coverages and likely command specialized matchups or bracket coverages. Jones has game-wrecking potential as a pass rusher, especially if Dickerson’s hurt elbow hinders him.

So what’s the case for the Eagles?

Their offense should be able to put up points. The group has proven it can run against just about anyone and the Eagles’ wide receivers should be able to gain separation against Kansas City’s secondary. Trent McDuffie is a rock-solid rookie, but L’Jarius Sneed on the other side could be hobbled by a hamstring injury that popped up Thursday. Even with those players at full strength, there’s reason to believe A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith could each have big games.

Especially if the Chiefs get out to an early lead, the Eagles offensive production will hinge on Hurts’ ability to play the way he did before hurting his shoulder two months ago. They may need to win a shootout and doing so will require Hurts to be at his best.

Defensively, their front four will need to pressure Mahomes without extra help, but even that isn’t as simple as it seems. Mahomes is excellent at navigating the pocket to avoid the rush and once he’s out of the pocket he is the most dangerous quarterback in the league. There’s also a strong chance Reid uses a heavy dose of screen passes to neutralize the Eagles’ rush.

This game is a toss-up. An early lead will be a significant swing, as will the health of both quarterbacks playing. Picking against a quarterback as good as Mahomes is tough to do, but the Eagles’ talent advantage is too hard to overlook. The Eagles win in a shootout with Brown becoming the third receiver in the last five years to win Super Bowl MVP.

Prediction: Eagles 38, Chiefs 34

Josh Tolentino

On Thursday evening, Mahomes was named the NFL’s MVP while Hurts finished right behind him in second place. Could Hurts possibly end up the last laugh after the biggest game of his young career?

The Eagles boast the superior roster, while the Chiefs have Mahomes and Reid. It’s remarkable what Mahomes has accomplished in the post-Hill era, but Hurts’ progression from Year 2 to Year 3 shouldn’t be slighted. Hurts’ accuracy and touch have been a tad off since returning from the injury to his throwing shoulder. If Hurts is able to connect with one of his explosive targets on an early deep shot, he’ll force the Chiefs into a more passive game plan as Spagnuolo’s unit will surely be aiming to contain the run.

Jones is capable of wrecking a game, but the Eagles boast the NFL’s best offensive line, and their running backs have displayed improved pass protection in recent weeks. If Hurts finds enough time, he’ll need to deliver the ball to his top wideouts, Brown and Smith; the duo possesses enough talent to expose one of the league’s youngest secondaries. Defensively, this matchup could play into Gannon’s favor. His philosophy centers around limiting explosive plays in favor of allowing intermediate gains at an increased rate. Kelce could have a field day, but if the Eagles buckle up elsewhere, that type of monstrous performance could be deemed as acceptable. Special teams has the potential to be an X factor. Punter Arryn Siposs is on the mend, and kicker Jake Elliott has converted on 10 consecutive field goals dating back to Dec. 18.

If the Eagles commit fewer than two turnovers, they’ll claim their second Super Bowl championship in franchise history.

Prediction: Eagles 31, Chiefs 24

The Eagles are one win away from their second championship. Join Inquirer Eagles writers EJ Smith, Josh Tolentino, Jeff McLane, Marcus Hayes and Mike Sielski on Gameday Central Sunday at 5 p.m. as they preview the game at sinomn.com/Eaglesgameday