The Eagles are going to need Jalen Hurts to win them a game at some point. A tough Rams team might be the one.

Schedule, circumstances, and matchups. They are three of the more underrated differentiators between success and failure in the NFL. They are three reasons to think the Eagles’ six-game winning streak will be in serious jeopardy against the Los Angeles Rams on Sunday.

I’m not predicting a loss for the Eagles, mostly because I’ve learned not to predict anything in the NFL. The margins are slim in this here league. We saw that on Thursday in the snow in Cleveland, when the 2-8 Browns knocked off the 8-2 Steelers. We’ve seen it all season in San Francisco, last year’s wire-to-wire juggernauts who this year seem just as snake-bitten as the Eagles were down the 2023 stretch. It doesn’t take much to tip the scales of competitive advantage. Everything is within the margin for error. Week 12 is one of those situations where a team often needs its quarterback to be the great equalizer.

This was always going to be a tough spot in the schedule, even before it became apparent that the Eagles would be traveling west without one of their three foundational offensive players. DeVonta Smith’s absence was confirmed on Friday, when their final Week 12 injury report listed him as out for Sunday’s matchup with the Rams. The Eagles have never won a game that Smith has missed. Then again, they’ve only played two without him.

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The little we know about the unknown suggests the Rams now have the advantage. Earlier this season, we saw how dramatically A.J. Brown’s absence impacted Jalen Hurts. As singular a force as Brown is — his sheer physicality brings an element that few receivers in the NFL can replicate — part of the reason he looks so unguardable is defenses also worrying about guarding Smith. When you have two receivers who can consistently beat single coverage and a running game that also requires extra men to stop, something has to give. At least, when everybody is healthy.

The Eagles’ Week 12 opponent is similar in that regard.

One year after the Rams went on a 7-1 post-bye surge and nearly knocked off the Lions in the playoffs, Sean McVay’s electric offense is once again sizzling with three wins in four games thanks to a wide receiver duo that is the closest thing in the NFL to the Eagles’ equal. In Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp, the Eagles will have to contend with an offense that presents many of the same challenges as their own. This will be a game where you will want to watch Darius Slay, in particular. The Eagles will either need him to summon his prime lateral quickness or their front four to generate the pressure they did in sacking Matthew Stafford four times last season. Otherwise, they won’t have the luxury of waiting around until Saquon Barkley busts loose.

This much is inarguable. The Eagles are going to need Hurts to win them a game at some point. Through the first 11 weeks of the season, he mostly has succeeded at doing what it takes to not lose games. The Eagles are 8-2 largely because they have strategically scaled back expectations at quarterback. During their six-game winning streak, Hurts has averaged just 21.8 pass attempts per game, a number that is remarkably low even after you account for the situational effects of a trio of blowouts. Last season, Hurts averaged 31.6 pass attempts per game. This year, he has thrown 31-plus passes in just two games and is on pace to finish the season with 447 pass attempts, which would be 91 fewer than last year. His career-low was 432 in 2021, when he missed two games.

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It has been a couple of years since the NFL has seen an offense like the Eagles’. Of their 3,799 total offensive yards, 47.7% have come on the ground, by far the highest in the league. In fact, it would be the highest single-season distribution since 2022, when both the Bears and the Falcons finished the season with more rush yards than pass yards. The Ravens also had a rush distribution north of 47% that year.

The Eagles are different even among that trio of teams, none of which finished with more than 365 points on the season. This year, Kellen Moore’s offense ranks ninth with 259 points and is on pace to finish with 440.

A big question remains. How much of the strategic shift is luxury, and how much is necessity? Barkley is on pace to finish the season with the most yards from scrimmage since Christian McCaffrey in 2019 and the second-most since Adrian Peterson won MVP in 2012. The Eagles have been wise to ride him. Their defense has helped make it work.

This week brings a new opponent and a new set of circumstances. The current Vegas over/under is 49, which would be higher than any game since the season opener against the Packers. In Stafford, Nacua, and Kupp, the Eagles will be facing a quarterback-receiver triumvirate unlike any they have faced to date. This could be one of those weeks where a team needs the old gunslinger to loosen up those joints.

The Eagles play in Week 12 against the Los Angeles Rams. Join Eagles beat reporters Olivia Reiner and EJ Smith as they dissect the hottest storylines surrounding the team on Gameday Central, live from SoFi Stadium.