Saquon Barkley as NFL MVP? Maybe not. In the conversation? You bet, with or without the numbers.

The pre-training-camp MVP odds tell you all you need to know about the state of play in the NFL.

Christian McCaffrey, the reigning offensive player of the year, indisputably the best and most important player on the defending NFC champs, fresh off a season in which he led the league in touches (339), yards from scrimmage (2,023), and touchdowns (21), is currently on the board at 50 to 1.

Anthony Richardson, a second-year quarterback who missed all but four games of his rookie season with a shoulder injury?

30 to 1.

I’m too much of a realist to pretend that Saquon Barkley has a realistic shot at winning an award that has been earmarked for the game’s best quarterback for more than a decade now. That said, there are worse ways to try to turn $10 into $3,000.

Among the players currently ahead of Barkley at 300-to-1: Will Levis (100-to-1), Bryce Young (150-to-1), Puka Nacua (200-to-1), Nick Chubb (200-to-1), and Jacoby Brissett (200-to-1).

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Now, look, nobody will try to argue that Levis and Young are better players than Barkley. But we still haven’t seen anything to suggest that they are better quarterbacks than he is, either. And I say that as a founding member of the Will-Levis-Has-More-of-a-Chance-Than-He-Gets-Credit-For Club.

The world is sleeping on Saquon.

A little more math for you. The fun kind.

In his first two years in the NFL, Barkley averaged 2.8 yards after contact per rushing attempt.

In 2022, Eagles running backs averaged 3.22 yards before contract per rushing attempt.

Add them together, and you get a pretty good look at Barkley’s ceiling for 2024.

The last running back to average 6.0 yards per carry on 200-plus carries was Adrian Peterson in 2012. The last running back to win the AP Most Valuable Player Award? Peterson in 2012.

Granted, world problems are a lot more fun when you don’t have to worry about mathematical rigor.

If it’s intellectual honesty you crave, you’d probably start by looking at Barkley’s numbers in his four most recent seasons rather than his first two (he topped out at 2.0 yards after contact per carry last year). You’d also factor in the Eagles’ yards-before-contact performance last year (2.62 yards per carry). And, lastly, you’d note that Peterson won the MVP in a year when he carried the ball 348 times. Last year’s NFL leader was Derrick Henry with 280.

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But none of that matters. Because the real source of Barkley’s value — or, at least, the value I anticipate — isn’t on the ground.

Don’t get me wrong. He will be great on the ground, perhaps monstrously so, as long as he is healthy. Maybe not as great as 21-year-old Saquon, who encountered plenty of brick walls behind a godawful Giants offensive line and proceeded to treat them like he was a giant anthropomorphized glass pitcher filled with tropical fruit punch. Those who don’t remember his rookie season should light some candles, turn on some Kenny G, and watch some highlights. Rookie year Saquon did not defy the laws of physics, because that would be impossible. But he sure did teach them.

We’re talking value, though. There isn’t an executive in the league who understands it better than Howie Roseman. He has a long track record that says he doesn’t see three years and $37.5 million worth of value in some crooked rushing numbers.

So, what’s that sly devil up to?

Don’t think rookie year Barkley. Think last year McCaffrey.

Actually, I take that back. Rookie year Barkley is relevant. He caught 91 passes for 721 yards that year, before embarking on the Daniel Jones experience. The hands, the route-running, the body control — those are the things the world needs to see in conjunction with a coordinator like Kellen Moore and a quarterback like Jalen Hurts.

Barkley isn’t McCaffrey. He wasn’t even at his peak. Nobody was, or is, or may well be again. But he is the only other running back in today’s NFL who has the ability to do what McCaffrey does. He is a power back with elite cutting and finishing ability who draws some serious game-plan gravity as a receiver.

During his year-end news conference, Roseman talked about his front office’s desire to constantly challenge its assumptions and remain ahead of the curve. I have little doubt that he had Barkley in mind. The Eagles had a front-row seat to the competitive advantage that a team can create with multidimensional players who do not fit classic run-catch archetypes. The 49ers had two of them in McCaffrey and Deebo Samuel. The Eagles saw how confounding it is to prep for such a team in the week leading up to their 42-19 loss in Week 13.

They already have one such player in Hurts, who forces defenses to account for all four corners of the field and every point in between. Pair that with Barkley’s ability to swing or wheel or angle out of the backfield and you have the ability to motion and misdirection your way into some gaping throwing lanes for your two elite wideouts and your athletic tight end.

His individual numbers may not show it in the end. The best version of this Eagles offense will be a well-rounded beast where everybody feasts. But Barkley has a chance to be a legitimate X factor. It doesn’t get more valuable than that.