4 Nations Face-Off: Who has the edge between the U.S. and Canada in Thursday’s final?

BOSTON ― Let’s get ready to rumble.

On Thursday night, the United States and Canada will match up with international hockey supremacy at stake. The inaugural 4 Nations Face-Off, which has been a smash hit in the on-ice product and television ratings, will conclude at TD Garden with the Americans trying to settle a decade-long debate about whether they have reached equal footing with their northern neighbors at their most beloved game.

This isn’t the 1996 World Cup where the U.S. embraced the Rocky underdog role to shock and knock out the hockey machine that was and is Canada (Ivan Drago). The U.S. has come too far in terms of development in recent years for such comparisons, and now stands 60 minutes — or maybe more, if necessary — from putting the hockey world title belt around its waist. Did we mention the bad blood on the ice or the recent political strife between these nations that will serve as the backdrop to one of the biggest games in this storied hockey rivalry?

While it’s hard to imagine a championship game following the same script as the two nations’ round-robin battle royale in Montreal, we’ll stick with the boxing theme and go to the tale of the tape to break down this heavyweight clash.

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In a matchup of two rosters almost exclusively filled with NHL All-Stars, Canada gets the edge here, given the top end of its roster. Canada boasts the top two players in the world, Connor McDavid and Nathan MacKinnon, not to mention the league’s top defenseman Cale Makar, and a still-elite, Mount Rushmore-type figure in captain Sidney Crosby. U.S. fans might counter by pointing to the one-two punch of Auston Matthews and Jack Eichel down the middle, but Canada has the bigger game-breakers.

Edge: Canada

I’ll stick with Canada for all the reasons listed above and also mention Sam Reinhart, who is somewhat overlooked on this star-studded team, despite having scored 98 goals in 163 games (including playoffs) for the Florida Panthers since the start of last season.

Edge: Canada

Canada has the top defenseman in Makar, but the U.S., which has surrendered only four goals in three games, has strength in numbers and the better shutdown blueliners. Charlie McAvoy’s injury is a significant blow in terms of leadership and physicality, but the U.S. should be able to overcome it, thanks to the presence of Jaccob Slavin, Brock Faber, Noah Hanifin, Zach Werenski, and Adam Fox on the back end. Slavin and Faber put on a defensive clinic against Canada last Saturday and likely will be tasked with trying to slow down the McDavid line. Keep an eye on injury replacement Jake Sanderson, who coach Mike Sullivan called a “rising star” on Tuesday.

Edge: United States

Several categories could tilt either way, but there’s no debating who has the better goaltender. USA’s Connor Hellebuyck is well on his way to his third Vezina Trophy in six years and put some questions about his performances in big games to bed by stopping 25 of 26 shots against the Canadians at the Bell Centre. The Americans win the goaltending matchup in a landslide, as any of its three U.S. netminders likely would start for Canada. Canadian fans looking for a silver lining? Jordan Binnington’s crowning achievement took place at TD Garden, where he stopped 32 of 33 shots to lead the St. Louis Blues to a Game 7 victory over the Boston Bruins in the 2019 Stanley Cup Final.

Edge: United States

On paper, you could argue Canada is the deeper team with perennial 30-goal scorers like Brad Marchand and Travis Konecny playing on the fourth line. But the Americans have plenty of depth themselves with J.T. Miller, Dylan Larkin, and Matt Boldy headlining a really good third line. Add in a deeper defense corps, and the U.S. just shades it. Canada has more high-end offensive players, but the Americans have more versatile pieces that seem to fit better together and allow them to play in a multitude of ways.

Edge: United States

Canada’s top power play of McDavid, MacKinnon, Reinhart, Crosby, and Makar has been much talked about, and deservedly so. But while Canada has the advantage with the extra man, the U.S. has the better penalty kill, anchored by Slavin and Faber on the back end and Hellebuyck between the pipes. The U.S. kept Canada’s power play at bay in the first matchup and killed off both penalties it took. Special teams can be vital in tight games, and Canada has an embarrassment of offensive riches.

Edge: Canada

This is Canada all day, as it has the likes of Crosby, Marchand, and Drew Doughty — who have won everything there is to win in the NHL and internationally — to lean on for advice. The Canadians don’t usually lose these types of tournament games, with Crosby, who scored the golden goal, and Doughty holdovers from that epic 2010 Olympic gold-medal win over the U.S. in Vancouver. Fourteen of the 20 Canadian players expected to dress for Thursday’s winner-take-all game have won a Stanley Cup, compared to only three for the United States. Can’t get much more experienced than that.

Edge: Canada

Both nations have Stanley Cup-winning head coaches behind the bench in Sullivan (Pittsburgh Penguins) and Jon Cooper (Tampa Bay Lightning) as well as assistant coaches in John Tortorella and Bruce Cassidy, who have won Cups as NHL head coaches. Canada has built a strong coaching staff with Cooper, Cassidy, Pete DeBoer, and Rick Tocchet, but USA gets the edge thanks to Tortorella’s 30-plus years behind the bench, the cohesion, and shared philosophy between him and his longtime assistant, Sullivan.

Edge: United States

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The United States was the aggressor in the first matchup and clearly set out looking to exploit a perceived physical advantage led by Matthew and Brady Tkachuk. That mindset proved true, as the USA was the more physical of the teams, outhitting Canada, 34-29, and instigating three fights in the opening nine seconds on Saturday. Sullivan will want his team to follow a similar recipe on Thursday, although the loss of McAvoy, the team’s most physical defenseman, will hurt.

Edge: United States

Canada had defenseman Alex Pietrangelo pull out in the buildup to this event because of injury, while Quinn Hughes did the same for the United States. The Canadians lost another defenseman in Game 1, when Pietrangelo’s Vegas teammate, Shea Theodore, suffered an upper-body injury vs. Sweden. Since then, Canada has been mostly healthy, aside from Makar missing the first game against the U.S. because of illness. The U.S. is a bit more banged up heading into Thursday. McAvoy has been ruled out because of an infection and shoulder injury, and both Tkachuk brothers, while expected to play, won’t be 100% after suffering lower-body injuries. Matthew, who did not play Monday, took part in Tuesday’s practice, but Brady, who left Monday’s game after crashing into the post on a net drive, did not practice because of illness. The U.S. will need those guys near their best if they are to pull off the sweep.

Edge: Canada

This is a dead heat at five categories apiece with Canada having the clear advantages offensively due to its high-end guys and the U.S. having the deeper blue line and more trustworthy netminder. In what should be a closely contested affair, health could be the major swing factor in Canada’s favor, although the U.S. has the benefit of playing at home in what should be a raucous TD Garden.

I picked Canada before the tournament and will stick with that prediction. It’s never easy to beat a good team twice, and this Canada team is better than just good. The U.S. winning would be the better story and probably the best thing for hockey a year out from the NHL returning to the Winter Olympics in Italy, but I just think Canada will have too much firepower and avenge its loss from Montreal. I have a hunch that Reinhart will score another big goal in a big game here, while Brayden Point, who formed instant chemistry with McDavid on Monday, is my X factor. The U.S. will need to keep this a tight, low-scoring affair to give itself the best chance of winning, but holding Canada’s big dogs down for a second straight game is a nearly impossible task.

Prediction: 4-2 Canada

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