Russian prospect Matvei Michkov presents a dilemma for every team — but even more so for the Flyers

With each team that doesn’t take talented winger Matvei Michkov after Connor Bedard and Adam Fantilli on June 28 at the NHL draft, the next team has a dilemma on its hands — and for the Flyers, that dilemma hits especially close to home.

While Bedard and Fantilli are the undisputed projected No. 1 and 2 picks, Michkov is considered by some the No. 3 player in terms of talent. But unlike Canadians Bedard and Fantilli, Michkov hails from Russia, a country currently embroiled in war.

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Last offseason, the political climate affected the sports world in many ways, including when Russian players heading to the NHL started to experience obstacles.

The first player to make headlines was goaltender Ivan Fedotov. The Flyers signed the 25-year-old Fedotov, whom they had drafted seven years earlier, to a one-year entry-level contract in May 2022. Then-general manager Chuck Fletcher said he hoped Fedotov, who had just backstopped CSKA Moscow to the Gagarin Cup (the KHL’s championship), would compete for the backup job behind Carter Hart.

Two months later, Fedotov was arrested in St. Petersburg for an alleged evasion of military service. All Russian men between the ages of 18-27 are required to serve one year with some exemptions, but Fedotov allegedly bought a fake military ID in an attempt to avoid his service. Russian officials denied the arrest had anything to do with his desire to go to the NHL — even though they knew of his violation previously and had yet to act on it. Fedotov subsequently was sent to a remote base in northern Russia for military training.

Fedotov was not the only NHL player to encounter problems last offseason. Minnesota Wild star Kirill Kaprizov had difficulty returning to the United States after leaving the country during the offseason.

The Wild said it was because his work visa ran out and the pandemic caused a backlog of paperwork, but there also were reports that he was wanted for buying a fake Russian military ID as well. Those reports largely were refuted, and Kaprizov elected not to discuss it upon his return to Minnesota. But lawyers and diplomats had to get involved, and Wild general manager Bill Guerin admitted to being concerned. The Wild previously had to wait the entirety of Kaprizov’s three-year contract with CSKA Moscow before he arrived in Minnesota in 2020-21.

So the Russian dilemma isn’t new. Despite widespread concerns around the league regarding Russian players entering last year’s draft, ultimately, three Russian players were taken in the first round. Minnesota chose one of them, Danila Yurov. The Flyers did not draft a Russian player with any of their six picks.

Adding further complications to Michkov’s situation is that he is signed with KHL giant SKA St. Petersburg through the 2026 season. While SKA has said it will not prevent a player from heading to the NHL, it does expect players to fulfill their contractual obligations.

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That means it could be at least three years before Michkov joins the team that drafts him. For teams that are rebuilding, that timeline might work and offer Michkov a chance to mature further. But for others, the wait and potential risk may be too much. That’s also assuming the political climate and American-Russian relations don’t deteriorate between now and then.

The Flyers are in that slow rebuild, but they’ve been burned once before. And that experience remains fresh in their memory. But they also aren’t in a position to turn down high-end talent or the chance at landing a player with genuine star potential.

“The Fedotov situation is a little different than the Michkov [situation],” assistant general manager Brent Flahr told The Inquirer recently. “There’s some things you can’t control, which you’ve got to weigh out your comfort level with going into it. But at the same time, we’ll have all of our background intact, and if we’re comfortable, then we’ll certainly consider it. You’ve got to weigh the talent level as well.”

While Michkov is Russian, it doesn’t mean his situation automatically will end up being like Fedotov’s. He may play out his contract and come over to North America with no issues. Fedotov allegedly broke a Russian law, while Michkov has done nothing illegal. For context, the Washington Capitals recently signed Russian 2022 first-rounder Ivan Miroshnichenko with no headaches.

Michkov also comes with a much higher reward than Fedotov. The 5-foot-10, 172-pound right wing is considered the best Russian prospect since Alexander Ovechkin and Evgeni Malkin went 1-2 in 2004. He’s got elite stick handling and intelligence, and in a non-Bedard draft without the Russia factor, he would have had a good chance at going No. 1 overall.

In addition to being a natural goal scorer and a game-breaker, he has a showmanlike quality to his game. The puck seems to find him in the offensive zone, and, once it does, he processes information quickly and creates danger for opponents. Most draft analysts project him to develop into a star-level NHL player.

Michkov often is compared to Ovechkin. His statistics in junior hockey certainly compare. When playing for Lokomotiv Yaroslavl’s under-16 team as a 15-year-old, Michkov scored 70 goals and put up 109 points in 26 games. Then, in Russia’s top junior league, the MHL, he scored 38 goals and 56 points in 56 games, the most ever by a 16-year-old. He followed it up with 30 goals in 28 games as a 17-year-old. He also has dominated at every underage international level with Russia including at the U16 Worlds and Hlinka Gretzky Cup in 2021.

This past season, he scored 10 goals in 12 games in Russia’s second-tier pro league, the VHL, before being loaned out to last-place Sochi in the KHL. Despite being the youngest player with Sochi, he tallied 20 points in 27 games. His 0.74 points per game with Sochi — excluding his three games when he barely saw ice time with SKA — would be a record for an 18-year-old in Russia’s top pro league.

However, there are still some questions surrounding his game. Because of distance and politics, NHL teams have had limited contact with Michkov over the last year, given that he plays in a country that Americans are hesitant to enter, and Russian teams are banned from International Ice Hockey Federation tournaments. Michkov hasn’t played on North American soil since playing two games at the COVID-19-abbreviated 2021 IIHF World Junior Championships.

NHL scouts have watched lots of video on Michkov, but there are intangibles that can only be picked up in person. Fortunately, the Flyers have a scout, Kenny Hoodikoff, in Russia who has had live viewings of Russian prospects. Flahr also has watched Michkov and talked with him at previous tournaments before Russia’s ban. Michkov is “allegedly” attending the draft in person, Flahr said, so they’ll be able to talk to him more there.

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Assuming Michkov falls as far as No. 7, the Flyers will have to seriously weigh the risk with the reward. But even if he doesn’t (and there are mock drafts that have him going well before seven), the Flyers will still have to consider whether they are comfortable drafting a Russian with any of their 10 picks this year.

“It’s a challenge for sure, but there’s some good players in Russia this year in the draft and guys we’re going to have to strongly consider,” Flahr said. “So this year, it’s unique. It’s the same for every team. But there’s some pretty high-profile players over there that will go early in the draft regardless of the political situation or whatnot.”