NHL draft lottery: What to know for Monday’s draw, Flyers’ odds at No. 1 pick, and more

The Flyers have been around for 58 years, and the franchise’s library is packed with several must-reads and more than a few duds. When the team hires a new head coach this summer, a new leather-bound book will begin on page one.

But before the Flyers write the new coach’s name on the spine comes the NHL draft lottery. On Monday, they hope it will afford them the chance to draft a player who will help shape the plot of their future — and not a footnote.

» READ MORE: Who will be the Flyers' next coach? Let's meet the candidates.

One of 16 teams that did not advance to the Stanley Cup playoffs, the Flyers, will find out Monday where they will choose their next potential franchise cornerstone on June 27 with their first of their three first-round picks. The lottery only applies to the first round, as Rounds 2-7 are based on the standings

Here’s everything you need to know about the draft lottery.

The NHL will conduct the lottery on Monday at 7 p.m. Fans can watch it all unfold live on ESPN before Game 1 of the Carolina-Washington series. The event will be televised from the NHL Network studios in Secaucus, N.J.

Let’s start with the good news. For the first time in the draft lottery’s 30-year history, it will all be conducted live on TV instead of in a back room, with the results being shared afterward.

The not-so-good news? The draft lottery can be a smidge complicated.

In 2021, the NHL instituted a weighted system to determine the draft order. According to the league, it was done to reduce the chances of the last-place team dropping in the draft order and, if it did drop, limit how far it fell.

Although 16 teams are involved in the lottery, the change made it so that only the 11 worst teams are eligible to receive the No. 1 overall pick. The new rules also stipulate that a team is limited to winning the lottery twice in five years. So, for example, if the San Jose Sharks, who won it last year and selected Macklin Celebrini — and also have the best odds this year — were to win the lottery, they would not be able to select first overall again until 2028.

So, how is it all figured out?

Each team has been randomly assigned a combination of four numbers, ranging from one to 14. Depending on how low a team finished, it gets more combinations from the 1,000 created, with the combination of 11-12-13-14 being an automatic redraw.

The Flyers have 95 combinations because they finished with the fourth-worst record. Among the 1,000 combinations created, the Flyers have the 93rd combination (1-3-6-14) which is the number worn by Jakub Voráček, Tyson Foerster’s No. 71 (1-3-4-9), No. 29 worn by Joel Otto, Todd Fedoruk, and Ray Emery (1-2-5-13), No. 18 worn by Mike Richards (1-2-4-11), and No. 20, which was the same number Flyers president Keith Jones wore when he played in Philly (1-2-4-13).

Then, on live TV, there will be two draws of the ping-pong balls.

If a team in the top 11 is selected in the first lottery, it will select first overall. If a team in the bottom five wins, it moves up in the standings — but only 10 slots — and then the Sharks would select first overall. The Sharks were the worst team in the NHL last year and won the first draw. The Sharks have an 18.5% chance of winning the first lottery and a 25.5% chance to pick No. 1 (18.5% on their own plus 7% from teams not eligible for No. 1 winning lottery).

The second drawing is then used to determine the No. 2 pick, with teams able to move up again. Last year, the Sharks won that draw too, so another draw had to be done. The Chicago Blackhawks, who had the second-best odds, won that draw and kept the second-overall selection.

According to the NHL, as each ball is drawn, odds change and teams are eliminated, and viewers will learn who is still in the running in real time.

Once the top two spots have been determined, the 14 remaining teams will be assigned in inverse order based on regular-season points.

» READ MORE: Resetting the Flyers’ future: Which prospects beyond Jett Luchanko and draft picks do the Orange and Black have on the way?

Thanks to a loss to the Buffalo Sabres in Game 82, the Flyers finished with 76 points. Although they tied with the Boston Bruins and Seattle Kraken on points, the Flyers had just 21 regulation wins, thus giving them the tiebreaker and the fourth-worst record. So, entering the lottery, the Flyers are slotted in at No. 4 and have a 9.5% chance of being selected in each lottery draw and thus winning one of the top two spots.

According to Tankathon, the Flyers have a 9.5% chance of getting the second overall pick but just a 0.3% probability of picking at No. 3. In this scenario, Detroit would have to win the first lottery to move up 10 spots to No. 2 and at the same time lock San Jose in at No. 1. If that happened and then the Flyers won the second lottery, they would pick third given that the first two picks would already be accounted for. Currently slotted in at fourth overall, they have a 15.4% chance of staying there but a 44.6% or 20.8% probability of dropping to fifth or sixth, respectively. The Flyers can pick no lower than sixth.

The Rangers and Flames’ picks are conditional and could be transferred to the Canucks and Montreal Canadiens, respectively.

Yes!

Compared to last year, when they went into the lottery at No. 12 and therefore outside of the top 11, the Flyers have a chance to win the first overall pick. Yep, we’re saying there’s a chance.

The Flyers have never won the lottery or selected first overall due to having the worst record in the NHL. The one time they picked in the top spot was in 1975, but only after trading Bill Clement, Don McLean, and the 18th overall pick to the Washington Capitals for No. 1 overall. Philly selected center Mel Bridgman, who played 462 of his 977 NHL games with the club. In his rookie year, he notched 50 points in 80 games and finished fifth in Calder Trophy voting. Before being traded for Brad Marsh in 1981, Bridgman helped the Flyers reach the Stanley Cup Final in 1976 and 1980.

As of today, the Flyers have an abundance of picks — 11 total — when the draft rolls around on June 27 and 28, with seven of those picks in the top 48.

In the first round, they have their pick, which will fall between 1-6. The Orange and Black also have Colorado’s first from last year’s Sean Walker trade and Edmonton’s first for trading pick No. 32 to the Oilers at last year’s draft. Both picks were protected, but both teams made the playoffs. Colorado’s elimination on Saturday ensures the Flyers’ second first-round pick will now fall between 22 and 25.

» READ MORE: The Flyers are poised to land a top-10 draft pick. Here are six center prospects they could target.

The second round sees the Flyers with four picks: their own, Anaheim’s from the Cutter Gauthier-Jamie Drysdale trade, Calgary’s from the trade that said goodbye to Morgan Frost and Joel Farabee, and Columbus’ pick from the Ivan Provorov three-team swap two years ago.

Philly has one pick in the third and sixth, and none in the fourth (traded with Scott Laughton) or seventh (traded with Andrei Kuzmenko). It does have two in the fifth, its own and the Carolina Hurricanes’ pick from the August 2023 trade that also landed the Flyers forward Massimo Rizzo.

Unlike in previous years, there isn’t a true consensus No. 1 pick. But, after much uncertainty, it appears Matthew Schaefer has risen to the top. The 6-foot-1, left-shot defenseman hasn’t played since he suffered a broken collarbone at the World Juniors, but he left a big impression in his 17 games with the Erie Otters of the Ontario Hockey League.

Behind the defenseman are several centers, some of whom Flyers general manager Danny Brière and assistant general manager Brent Flahr would love to get their hands on.

Michael Misa, a 6-1 pivot for Saginaw of the OHL, is ranked No. 2 behind Schaefer in NHL Central Scouting’s final ranking of North American skaters. Long Island native James Hagens, who plays at Boston College, is third, and Brantford center Jake O’Brien — no relation to failed Flyers first-round pick Jay O’Brien — is fourth. Six-3 winger Porter Martone (Brampton) is sixth, and center Caleb Desnoyers (Moncton, Quebec Maritimes Junior Hockey League), the brother of Flyers prospect Elliot, is ranked seventh.

Anton Frondell, a center many expect to be high on the Flyers’ list, is ranked as the No. 4 overall prospect by TSN insider Bob McKenzie and is Central Scouting’s top-ranked international skater. Right behind him is winger Victor Eklund, the younger brother of Sharks forward William Eklund.

Some other notable names include towering 6-5 center Roger McQueen, and defensemen Kashawn Aitcheson, Radim Mrtka, and Jackson Smith.