Philly added about 10,500 residents in 2024, starting to reverse pandemic decline

After four consecutive years of losses to Philadelphia’s estimated population, the city may have begun to turn it around in 2024.

Between July 2023 and July 2024, Philly gained about 10,500 residents, according to estimates from the U.S. Census Bureau released Thursday. That figure represents a 0.7% increase, putting the city’s estimated population at 1,573,916 residents.

It also starts to reverse Philadelphia’s pandemic-era population decreases, which saw estimates for the city’s number of residents fall each year dating back to April 2020. But with revisions to the Census Bureau’s past estimates, those losses may not have been as significant as initially thought, said Katie Martin, project director at Pew Charitable Trusts’ Philadelphia research and policy initiative.

Experts cautioned against reading too much into the Census Bureau’s yearly estimates, as they do not provide a complete picture of the city’s population and might not be indicative of the city’s long-term standing. Still, this year’s estimates could be considered good news.

“We are cautiously optimistic about this,” said Greg Diebold, a planning data analyst with the Delaware Valley Regional Planning Commission. “This year’s results appear to match what we see on the ground.”

The city did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

The Census Bureau’s annual estimates serve as a 12-month snapshot of county populations, and reach their totals by taking into account births, deaths, and the movement of residents into and out of the area. Since about 2006, Martin said, growth in Philadelphia has largely been a result of foreign-born residents moving into the city, which the Census Bureau refers to as “international migration.”

That trend appears to have continued in 2024, and at a higher rate than during the pandemic years. Between July 2023 and July 2024, about 21,000 immigrants moved to Philadelphia, more than double the number who arrived in 2022, according to Census Bureau estimates.

Additionally, in 2024 about 15,000 more people left Philadelphia for elsewhere in the United States than moved in — roughly half the number of other recent years. As a result, Philly saw a net migration gain of about 6,000 residents last year.

Likewise, births outpaced deaths in Philadelphia by about 4,600 people, putting the city in a net positive for what the Census Bureau calls “natural change.” During the early years of the pandemic, that figure was much lower, standing at about 1,700 in 2021.

Overall, however, migration historically has had a more significant impact on Philadelphia’s population than births and deaths.

“Our region does well with international migration, and for domestic migration, we have seen a net outflow,” Diebold said, adding that that outflow historically slowed during the 2010s. “So, this is sort of a return to what we were seeing pre-pandemic.”

Philadelphia was not the only place to grow locally in 2024. Every county in the region showed modest growth for the year, too, census figures showed.

While the city had the largest increase in total population by number of residents, five counties beat Philly out proportionally: Burlington (1.1%), Chester (1%), Gloucester (1%), Montgomery (0.9%), and Camden (0.8%). South Jersey counties, Diebold said, showed slightly higher growth than their Pennsylvania counterparts in 2024, though he expects local counties in both states to continue to grow moderately in the long term.

But despite gains last year, Philadelphia has seen a net loss of about 30,000 residents since April 2020, Census Bureau estimates indicate. Suburban collar counties, meanwhile, collectively added more than 90,000 residents during that time — with about a third of that group coming from South Jersey.

Philly’s population decrease is not unusual nationally. Throughout the pandemic, most big cities lost residents, with those declines largely being attributed to COVID-19-era changes like the rise of remote work and telecommuting, cheaper suburban real estate, and concerns about crime.

But now, the Census Bureau said in a statement, many metro areas that experienced pandemic population losses — Philadelphia included — are seeing gains. Largely, that is due to immigration, with every metro area in the country showing positive net international migration between 2023 and 2024, the bureau said.

The Census Bureau regularly revises its population estimates, and provides updated numbers with its new annual releases. For 2024, those revisions saw estimates for Philadelphia’s population losses across the pandemic shrink significantly, Martin said.

Previously, estimates showed the city’s population dropped by about 3.3% since April 2020, or about 53,000 people — which would have been a historic decrease, as Philly had not posted a 3% decrease in population across three years since the 1970s. But with the revised numbers, that drop appears to be less than initially reported, standing at about 1.9%, or about 30,000 people.

Those numbers, Martin said, are “more in line with historic records.”

The revision may come from what the Census Bureau referred to as “methodological improvements,” which include the use of additional data, Diebold noted. Such revisions are not unusual.

The new estimates are looking more like typical year-over-year churn, Martin said. The 10,500-person increase, she added, is also closer to the Philly population gains of the 2010s, a decade when the city saw similar growth each year.

Because the Census Bureau’s estimates take into account only births, deaths, and migration data, researchers like Diebold and Martin tend to take them with a grain of salt. More emphasis is generally given to the decennial census, which will not happen again until 2030.

That census is an actual count, rather than an estimate. And this year, we are smack in the middle between the last decennial census of 2020 and the next one, which makes getting an accurate picture more difficult.

“The further you get from that count, the more of an estimate it is,” Martin said. “It is a sample. It’s not the entire population.”

Still, after several years of reported declines in the city, it’s tough not to feel at least a little good about Philly’s increase — even if it is only an estimate.

“I was really happy to see the numbers,” Martin said.