Trump’s Gaza diplomacy has failed. Will he break with Netanyahu and reverse course?
The president must choose between backing Israel's "forever war" or a moderate Arab peace plan.
The White House appears to have scant patience with peace talks that don’t produce quick results and an instant photo op.
As President Donald Trump threatens to “walk away” from his efforts to force Ukraine to surrender to Russia, he seems to have already abandoned his grandiose plans for the Mideast. I refer, of course, to his pledge to negotiate a quick return of Israeli hostages from Gaza, and build a Mideast Riviera there after Palestinians are “voluntarily removed” to other countries. (A less polite term would be “ethnically cleansed” by force.)
Diverted by Mideast complexity — and his tariff war on the world — the president has given far-right Israeli leader Benjamin Netanyahu the green light to continue policies that won’t destroy Hamas, but are magnifying the humanitarian disaster in Gaza beyond any imaginable proportions.
Israel’s retaliation for Hamas’ brutal Oct. 7, 2023, attack has lost any strategic purpose in Gaza. It is headed toward a long-term occupation of the enclave — a military trap that will get soldiers, hostages, and thousands more Gazan civilians slaughtered. Netanyahu won’t destroy Hamas, but, beholden to the extreme right, he may shatter relations with Israel’s peaceful Arab neighbors. Trump’s much-acclaimed Abraham Accords between small Gulf States and Israel — that he hoped to expand to Saudi Arabia — will wind up in history’s dustbin.
Unless, that is, Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (and other Gulf leaders) can sell Trump on their alternative plan for Gaza when he visits the region in May. Otherwise, the great negotiator will fail again — bigly. And the Gaza war will go on.
Let me start with a brief recap: In his one diplomatic triumph, Trump’s Mideast (and Ukraine, and Iran) negotiator, real estate mogul Steve Witkoff, pulled President Joe Biden’s Gaza peace plan across the finish line in January.
The deal had three parts: The first involved a ceasefire and partial hostage release. The second and third required Hamas to release all hostages and agree to a final political settlement for Palestinians in the West Bank and Gaza. That final deal would include a non-Hamas government for Gaza, which would involve Palestinian Authority leaders from the West Bank (who have cooperated militarily with Israel). It would also bring in Arab Gulf countries to finance the rebuilding and possibly the policing of the Gaza Strip. Israeli troops would withdraw behind a fortified border.
Netanyahu backed out after the first part of the deal ended.
Critics of the Israeli government argue, with much evidence, that Netanyahu only accepted Part One under Trump pressure, but never intended to negotiate a military pullout from Gaza. His right-wing coalition partners would have brought down his government had he done so. Their open goal — like Trump’s — is to expel much of Gaza’s population into Egypt or beyond, and build Jewish settlements in the strip. Trump’s vision of a beachfront tourist paradise fortified the right-wing’s demands.
On March 18, Israel ended the truce and restarted extensive bombing. Despite Israeli claims to the contrary, all rules of military engagement appear to have been lifted. A perfect example is the recent Israeli military killing of 15 uniformed Palestinian humanitarian workers — in well-lit and marked vehicles — by close-range fusillades of bullets. The dead and their crushed vehicles were then buried in the sand; the commando unit gave false reports of the incident, until press revelations based on recovered phone videos forced the Israeli military to recant.
Yet, as the bombing kills more civilians and Israel announces permanent control of more and more of Gaza, the Israeli government has halted all humanitarian aid to the population. “As long as our hostages are languishing in the tunnels, there is no reason for a single gram of food or any aid to enter Gaza,” declared radical right-wing National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir. “The cessation of humanitarian aid is one of the main levers of pressure on Hamas.”
Statistics and common sense prove this claim is flatly false. Only a few hostages have been rescued by Israeli soldiers, and more have been killed by Israeli attacks or mistaken fire on escaped hostages. Only negotiations have rescued large numbers of Israeli prisoners.
This is why the families of the remaining 59 hostages, of whom only 24 are believed to be alive, are demonstrating constantly against the Netanyahu government. They argue he is deliberately sentencing their relatives to death in order to hold on to political power.
Most Gazans, nearly all displaced from bombed homes, are now being forced to move from rubble to tent camp and back with dwindling supplies of food and water.
They are trapped, with no way to feed their kids. “Unless there is a permanent ceasefire soon, the situation is very bleak,” I was told by James Sussman, a spokesperson for the International Rescue Committee, which had been delivering water and medical supplies to the strip.
So here are the choices Trump (and Israel) face, if the president will listen to an informed briefing, or even care to reengage.
Give Netanyahu the green light for ethnic cleansing, as Trump has hinted he might do. But that option will fail. “Just not going to happen,” I was told by phone by the Israel Policy Forum’s Nimrod Novik, a member of the executive committee of Commanders for Israel’s Security, who is now touring the Arab countries to discuss Gaza’s future. “Egypt and Jordan” — which border Gaza and Israel, respectively — “won’t accept it,” he said flatly. It would be politically fatal for either to admit hundreds of thousands of Palestinians who were forced out of Gaza. Moreover, both countries are already sheltering millions of refugees.
Turn his back on the whole Gaza mess. But this will also boomerang. Israel will be sucked into a high casualty guerrilla war that won’t “totally destroy” Hamas. Meanwhile, the horrific civilian death toll of Gazans will drive more young men to join the group. Hostages will die. And no country will finance Gaza’s reconstruction. Gaza will become “an open-ended bleeding occupation,” in the words of Novik, destabilizing the region. World leaders (and Arab allies) will blame Netanyahu — and Trump.
Listen to moderate Arab leaders and do a U-turn on Netanyahu. The only way to destroy Hamas is via negotiations that offer Palestinians political hope for the future. Only then could small demonstrations against Hamas reach critical mass. This, too, is the only route to expand the Abraham Accords to include Saudi recognition of Israel. Trump has immense leverage on Netanyahu. Yet, we know he hates tough diplomacy, which demands knowledge and patience, so I doubt he will pursue it. Still, this is the only path forward that could help Israel emerge from unending war and free the hostages. Moreover, progress on Gaza would increase pressure on Iran to bend on its nuclear program. It’s a long shot, probably far longer than the chance of Elon Musk being buried on Mars.
But if Trump really wants a Nobel Peace Prize, it’s a chance he must take.