The Braves are a big problem, and the Phillies don’t have the pitching to deal with it. At least, not right now.
Once again, a heroic Bryce Harper moment was scuttled by a pitching staff with few good options. That looms large for the postseason.
The biggest reason to believe in the Phillies was the guy at the plate in the bottom of the ninth. It went how it always seems to go. First came the Moby bassline. Then came the big home run. In between, there came the roar of anticipation as the crowd realized who was stepping up to bat.
The outcome is getting to a point where it feels preordained. When is a loss not a loss? When there are two outs and it’s Bryce Harper’s turn to hit. In the ninth inning of Monday’s daycap against the Braves, that meant erasing a two-run deficit with a two-run home run and sending the game to extras. He is a ridiculous baseball player, and it is incredibly fun to watch.
» READ MORE: Taijuan Walker’s struggles leave Phillies without clear third starter for MLB postseason
The biggest reason to doubt the Phillies is that they only have one of him.
Harper wasn’t enough on Monday, when the Braves answered his game-tying blast with a two runs in the top of the 10th to claim a 10-8 win.
Harper won’t be enough this postseason, when Atlanta will enter October with an offense that might be the best in modern baseball history.
Scoff all you want. Phillies fans have that right after watching what happened to last year’s Atlanta team. Problem is, they won’t be playing last year’s team. And this year’s Braves are an entirely different beast.
Screenshot it. Save it to your notes. Pull it back up once the postseason begins. Everyone needs to go into October with their eyes wide open. These aren’t the Mets. These aren’t last year’s Braves. These guys are for real.
This year’s Braves have already hit 30 more home runs than last year’s Braves. Hell, they’ve already hit 30 more home runs than all but 20 teams in modern major league history. Only four have ever hit more than their 275: the 2019 Twins (307), 2019 Yankees (306), 2019 Astros (288) and 2019 Dodgers (279). The Braves will pass all of them by the end of the season, assuming they maintain their current pace of 1.9 home runs per game.
This year’s Braves have already scored 47 more runs than last year’s Braves. Their win over the Phillies on Monday was the 19th time they’ve scored 10+ runs in 143 games. That’s 13% of all of their games. They are on pace to finish the season with 947 runs, which would be 158 more than they scored last season. The only big league teams in modern history to score 947+ runs outside of the steroid era were the 1953 Brooklyn Dodgers and 1950 Red Sox.
Sidenote: Eleven teams reached that threshold between 1996-2004, just in case you forgot how warped those eight years were.
Sidenote 2: I consider modern big league history to be post-integration, since it’s a lot harder to put up numbers when everybody is allowed to play the game. But, for what it’s worth, the 1927 Yankees scored 976 runs, which was actually 100 runs fewer than the 1931 Yankees.
Sidenote 3: The overall big league record for runs is held by the 1894 Boston team. No nickname. Just BOSTON. They scored 1,220 runs while drawing 1,000 fans per game. They also had a lot of nice mustaches.
» READ MORE: Phillies squander another clutch homer from Bryce Harper, fall to Braves 10-8 in 10 innings
Point is, nobody has seen anything like these Braves before. On Monday, Ronald Acuna hit his 36th home run of the season, a solo shot off of Andrew Bellatti in the sixth. The blast gave him 130 runs on the season, putting him within reach of Jeff Bagwell’s post-integration record of 152.
Also on Monday, Matt Olson drove in his 122nd and 123rd runs, putting him on pace to finish the season with 139, a number nobody has hit since Miguel Cabrera in 2012.
Sidenote: Ryan Howard drove in 139+ runs three times between 2006-09
“They do damage,” said Phillies starter Taijuan Walker, whose rough stretch run continued with five runs allowed in 5 1/3 innings. “But they do have a lot of swing-and-miss too. I think that’s with any team. We have a really good lineup. The Dodgers have a really good lineup. But I think if you execute, they get out just like anyone else.”
Walker wasn’t the only Phillies pitcher who has been failing to execute. That’s a big concern when it comes to beating teams like the Braves and Dodgers.
Last year, the Phillies had two bona fide aces who were capable of winning postseason games on their own. This year, they have one. The other has been replaced by a poor facsimile of Aaron Nola. Last year, they had two bona fide closers who made every game seven innings long. That’s no longer the case.
Look at Harper’s heroics. Look at the last three times he did what he did on Monday. On Aug. 23, he hit a three-run home run in the bottom of the ninth inning to tie the Giants, 5-5. The next half inning, Craig Kimbrel allowed three runs and the Phillies lost. A week later, the Phillies were down by a run and down to their last four outs when Harper hit a two-run home run in the bottom of the eighth inning to give them the lead. The next half inning, Kimbrel allowed three runs and the Phillies lost.
On Monday, it was Jose Alvarado allowing an RBI single to the first batter of extras. The Braves tacked on another run and the Phillies lost. Seranthony Dominguez hasn’t been any better: He’s blown two straight games, allowing four runs on five outs.
“You get down early, you keep battling back, you finally tie it, and then you give it up in the 10th,” Phillies manager Rob Thomson said. “It’s disappointing, but you have to keep moving on.”
They also have to keep looking for somebody to step up. With pitching like this, they aren’t beating Braves or the Dodgers. They might not beat the Cubs, Brewers or Diamondbacks, either.