‘I thought we would play better’: Dave Dombrowski weighs in on the Phillies’ 20-23 start

With the Phillies in the throes of a four-game losing streak that dropped their record to 20-23 through more than one quarter of the season, there isn’t much sense in mincing words.

Dave Dombrowski didn’t even bother when he answered his phone Thursday.

“I’m surprised that we haven’t played better so far,” the Phillies president of baseball operations told The Inquirer. “I thought we would play better.”

There are many reasons why the defending National League champions — with a club-record $249 million luxury-tax payroll boosted by the 11-year, $300 million signing of shortstop Trea Turner — have fallen short of expectations.

Start with the starting rotation’s 4.94 ERA, nearly half a run more than league average (4.50). Then move to the .232/.318/.324 batting line with runners in scoring position, considerably less than league-average production (.254/.335/.412) even though Bryce Harper returned to the lineup several weeks earlier than expected.

The default position in baseball is to brush off a slow start by declaring, “It’s early.” And it is. If this was an NFL season, it would be halftime of Week 5. There’s still a long way to go to snag one of six National League playoff spots, and at the moment, only three NL teams (Dodgers, Braves, and the surprising Diamondbacks) are more than five games over .500.

Oh, and the Phillies were 20-23 through 43 games last season, too.

But Dombrowski made a few things clear, chiefly that the problems were different last season. The solutions won’t be the same, either.

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“We made a managerial change last year, which we will not be making,” Dombrowski said. “It’s one of those where, I think the culture has been built. It’s good. I think they believed they could do it [last season]. I think they now know they can do it. But when I say that, you still have to do it.”

Dombrowski weighed in on a few of the Phillies’ most glaring issues.

Turner’s disappointing start has mirrored the team’s. A .300 career hitter, he’s batting .262 with only 15 extra-base hits and a .707 on-base plus slugging in 195 plate appearances.

“He’s one of the best players in the game of baseball, so I think he’ll be fine,” Dombrowski said. “But yeah, I’m a little surprised that he has started out the way he has. I’m not really sure why. He’s been around a long time. He’s switched clubs. He works hard. He knows the hitting coach, knows some players on the team. I don’t know if he’s put too much expectations on himself.

“I do think he will do much better as the year goes on. I’ll be absolutely shocked if he doesn’t — and I think the baseball world will be shocked if he doesn’t.”

Among Turner’s biggest issues: He’s swinging at pitches outside the strike zone at a higher rate (36.1%) than his career average (27.8%). It has been a widespread Phillies problem. Collectively, they have the fifth-highest chase rate (31.5%) in the majors.

“We’re just chasing too much, and that happens a lot when you’re struggling,” Dombrowski said. “You try to do too much, so sometimes you go outside the zone. Then, when you go outside the zone, [opponents] are smart. They know you’re doing it. They feed to that.”

It’s one thing to seek a fifth-starter upgrade after Bailey Falter went 0-7 with a 5.13 ERA and got demoted to triple A. It’s quite another when the $72 million No. 4 starter has a 6.53 ERA through nine starts.

The Phillies thought they solved Taijuan Walker’s problem a few weeks ago when they simplified his pitch mix and got him to lean on his signature splitter. But Walker’s fastball command has been erratic, which makes the splitter less effective. He has walked 10.5% of opposing hitters, a dramatic increase from his 7.7% career mark.

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“He has to pitch better than that. He just has to,” Dombrowski said. “He can’t go out walking people. He knows it. He’s very conscientious. He’s just got to go out and do it.”

It’s uncommon, though not unprecedented, for teams to make trades in May.

“That does happen,” Dombrowski said. “Normally, if you make trades early, it’s because you’ve given up a whole bundle to get a guy. But it does happen. I think there’s fewer clubs out there that are really in a position that they’re prepared to move players at this point.”

In the short term, then, the Phillies will likely fill the fifth-starter spot internally, perhaps even using the bullpen to piece it together.

But the schedule is about to toughen. After playing only three of their first 49 games against divisional opponents, the Phillies will face the Braves and Mets 13 times in a 29-game span beginning next Thursday night in Atlanta. (For all of their payroll might, the Mets are off to a 21-23 start that rivals the Phillies’ disappointment.)

Maybe then the picture will be a little clearer. Maybe then the Phillies will know if they’re as good as they think they are.

“I’ve been with good clubs that, the next year, they don’t do quite as well and for whatever reason some guys don’t perform up to their capabilities,” Dombrowski said. “But a lot of times, they do jump back and play the way they’re capable of playing. I’ve been with slow-starting clubs and inconsistent clubs that, all of a sudden, they get it together. I think this club has those capabilities to do that and to play well.

“But we can talk all we want. We have to do it.”