Why Zach Eflin and Griff McGarry are the X factors for the Phillies’ shorthanded pitching staff

The team is running low on arms, but a few pitchers — such as Seranthony Domínguez — returning from injury and one pretty big call-up from triple A could help a lot.

The Phillies need quality arms to throw quality innings, and Zach Eflin might be a big part of that if he can return from injury.Read moreYONG KIM / Staff Photographer

by Scott Lauber

Updated Sept. 6, 2022, 10:43 a.m. ET

Published Sept. 6, 2022, 9:43 a.m. ET

It’s that time of year, so let’s dust off the old calculator, grab a pencil and paper, carry the 3, divide by 2, and tally the Phillies’ magic number.

Here it is: 252.

Oh, you thought we were talking about the magic number to clinch a wild-card playoff spot? (It’s any combination of 27 Phillies wins and Milwaukee Brewers losses, by the way.) Before they can consider that, the Phillies must figure out how to piece together 252 more innings from their pitchers over the season’s final 28 games.

It’s hardly an easy task for any team, but especially challenging for the Phillies, who haven’t had Seranthony Domínguez (triceps tendinitis) since Aug. 17 and Zack Wheeler (elbow inflammation) since Aug. 20. Erstwhile closer Corey Knebel (shoulder) won’t return this season, and the innings are piling up for Noah Syndergaard, who barely pitched the last two years after elbow surgery, and to a career-high level for Ranger Suárez.

The Phillies have already used 29 pitchers, including a few that you probably forgot (hello, Nick Duron and Bubby Rossman). Their 40-man roster depth is nearly tapped. Last week, they acquired reliever Vinny Nittoli in a minor trade with Toronto because they saw potential in his slider at triple A and, well, they need arms.

There are different paths to 252. Most involve Domínguez, who could return by the weekend, and Wheeler, who has not yet resumed throwing. But it’s appearing increasingly likely that the Phillies will also need two pitchers who didn’t figure prominently in the picture until the last week or two.

Zach Eflin

When Eflin barehanded Hunter Renfroe’s chopper to the left of the mound, contorted his right leg, and made an off-balance throw to first base in the second inning of a June 9 game in Milwaukee, it seemed like little more than a nice play. But he tweaked his right knee. Although he didn’t damage the surgically repaired patellar tendon, he suffered a bruise that caused pain around the kneecap.

Eflin tried to pitch through it, eventually landing on the injured list after a June 25 start in San Diego. And for two months, whenever he got on a mound, the pain returned, either when he pushed off his back leg in his delivery or tried to field his position. Sometimes he wouldn’t feel anything until a day or two later.

“There were moments I was very, very optimistic, and the next day, I wouldn’t be so optimistic,” Eflin said over the weekend. “Kind of went back and forth with that. But the past week has been incredible. I’ve been optimistic every single day.”

Eflin threw from a bullpen mound last week in Arizona without issue. He simulated a between-innings break in a bullpen session last Friday in San Francisco and did fine. Next up: Eflin (and Domínguez) are due to face hitters in a live batting practice setting Tuesday at Citizens Bank Park. If that goes well, Eflin could progress to a minor league assignment.

There isn’t time for Eflin to rebuild the arm strength required of a starter, his role for all but five of 120 appearances in the majors. He isn’t sure how his stuff will play as a reliever, although he suspects there may be an uptick in velocity because he wouldn’t have to pace himself to get through a lineup two or three times.

“It’s a completely different mindset coming out of the bullpen,” Eflin said. “You’re out there to empty the tank. I’m sure I’ll have my curveball spinning better. Might have some more velo on it. But we’ll kind of see how it is when someone else gets in the box.”

And if Eflin is able to deliver two, maybe three innings at a time out of the bullpen with an arm that would be fresh relative to relievers who have labored for the last 2½ months? Not only could he provide value for a staff that has gotten six innings from a starting pitcher only seven times in the last 17 games, but he also may help boost his stock in free agency.

“It would mean the world to me,” said Eflin, who has a $15 million mutual option for 2023 that figures to be declined by the Phillies after he made only 31 starts in the last two years. “I’ve been trying to do that for 2½ months now in whatever role that may be. I’m not a very patient person. There was nothing structurally wrong. I didn’t need surgery. It was more just a rest kind of thing and let it recover, and it kept dragging out. It’s going to mean the absolute world to me to get back out there with these guys.”

Griff McGarry

It was always a fun hypothetical. What if the Phillies took McGarry, a strikeout machine with an upper-90s fastball and sweeping slider from a low arm angle, and dropped him into the major league bullpen? Imagine the potential impact.

By next week, team officials may no longer have to imagine.

The Phillies moved McGarry to the bullpen at double-A Reading on Friday, and he racked up four strikeouts in two hitless innings. They promoted him Monday to triple-A Lehigh Valley, where he’s expected to remain in a relief role as the debate continues about his viability at the major league level.

“My personal opinion is I think he could definitely pitch in the big leagues,” Reading pitching coach Matt Hockenberry said by phone Monday. “I think his stuff is major league-ready. I personally think his command is major league-ready. But he’s only going to figure that out, he’s only going to learn from his mistakes, once he gets up there.”

Long-term, the Phillies view McGarry as a starter. President of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski said recently that McGarry, Mick Abel, and 19-year-old phenom Andrew Painter will get a chance to compete for a rotation spot in spring training. McGarry remains firmly in that mix.

But if the 23-year-old can help out of the bullpen in the short term — maybe as a hard-throwing, right-handed complement to Suárez, a lefty sinkerballer who hit a fourth-inning wall in his last two starts — well, why not?

The biggest question about McGarry has always centered on his command. He walked 131 of the 633 batters that he faced at the University of Virginia, a 20.7% walk rate that landed him in the bullpen for a brief stretch as a senior. He changed his delivery before the Phillies drafted him in the fifth round last year. In 79⅓ innings between high-A Jersey Shore and Reading, McGarry has walked 44 of 327 batters (13.5%) while posting a 3.18 ERA, including a 2.20 mark at double A. There’s room for improvement, but it has been better.

“He’s got some unicorn stuff that I don’t think a lot of umpires have seen before, so he does get squeezed,” Hockenberry said. “It’s a unique slot, it’s a unique presentation, and it’s hard to see. It surprises hitters, and it surprises umpires, I know that for sure. I don’t think walks are an issue. When he keeps an upbeat tempo in his delivery and stays toward the plate, toward his target, his stuff is there.”

Hockenberry said McGarry got loose quickly in the bullpen on Friday night. He also liked the mentality of throwing full-tilt for a shorter spurt and threw 24 of 36 pitches for strikes. McGarry left an Aug. 26 start with a blister. That appears to be behind him.

The Phillies received interest in McGarry last winter and at the trade deadline. They took him off the table. Now, the only discussion about McGarry is when to bring him to the majors.