Early Phillies trade deadline preview: Bullpen help will be costly. Here are some relievers to watch.

Two months from the trade deadline, it’s safe to make a few pronouncements with a reasonable level of certainty.

1. The Tigers, Yankees, Dodgers, Cubs, Mets, and, most notably around here, the Phillies definitely will be buyers.

2. Surefire sellers, albeit with little to sell: the White Sox, Pirates, Marlins, and embarrassingly bad Rockies, all of whom would be in line for relegation if only baseball were soccer.

3. The Phillies will shop in the reliever aisle.

Beyond that, well, let’s just say it’s still a long way from here to July 31. Everything can change, and sometimes it actually does, in two months.

» READ MORE: Bryce Harper on Kyle Schwarber: ‘I don’t see him playing anywhere else’

Look back to last May, for example. As the Mets sank 11 games below .500, owner Steve Cohen posted this reply on X to a message advising him to blow up the roster: “Not much we can do until trade deadline.” When the deadline arrived, the Mets were a half-game out in the wild-card race. They wound up in the NL Championship Series.

But even without the Mets’ turnaround fresh in their minds, executives across the majors know that there are more roads than ever into the playoffs. Since the introduction of a third wild card in each league in 2022, the Phillies and Diamondbacks won two of the last three National League pennants as the final team to clinch a spot.

It’s little wonder, then, that most teams put off the buy-or-sell decision until the All-Star break. Some clubs delay it until a few days before the deadline.

Entering the weekend, FanGraphs‘ projection system gave 13 teams between a 70% and 20% chance of making the playoffs. Eight of those clubs are in the American League, which, after the Yankees and upstart Tigers, looks flatter than the Great Plains.

It can still go either way for baseball’s middle — middling? — class. So, if you’re like the Phillies — a World Series contender with an obvious need — the best you can do in the last week of May is to sift through internal options, take a few fliers on minor league contracts (Lucas Sims and Josh Walker), and wait for the buyers and sellers to form their lines.

The Phillies already were short one late-inning reliever after deciding in the offseason that 1+1=1. At least that’s what president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski came up with when he replaced free agents Jeff Hoffman and Carlos Estévez with Jordan Romano.

But two weeks ago, lefty José Alvarado was suspended for 80 games — and banned from the playoffs — for failing a drug test, leaving Romano, Orion Kerkering, and lefty Matt Strahm as the top options for manager Rob Thomson. Entering the weekend, the Phillies ranked 24th in the majors in bullpen ERA (4.61).

» READ MORE: With José Alvarado suspended, the Phillies will need to boost the bullpen with a trade. But it will cost them.

Surely, they will be linked to Mason Miller and Félix Bautista, flame-throwing closers for the Athletics and Orioles, respectively. But Miller, 26, is under club control through 2029 and Bautista, 29, through 2027, so the returns figure to include multiple top prospects.

With Dombrowski leading the front office, the Phillies dealt for a reliever at three of the last four deadlines. In each case — Ian Kennedy in 2021, David Robertson in 2022, and Estévez last year — they acquired an expiring contract. (MLB.com recently reported that the Phillies “reached out” to Robertson, but “no serious talks took place” with the 40-year-old.)

Last year, the Phillies gave up two single-A pitchers — right-hander George Klassen and lefty Sam Aldegheri, both midlevel prospects — for Estévez. The going rate for a two-month reliever rental likely would be similar this season.

But how will the relief market shape up? It might depend largely on how a few teams fare over the next six weeks.

Record: 32-24, through Thursday

Playoff odds: 42.3%, via FanGraphs

Alec Bohm wasn’t the only prominent third baseman who didn’t get traded last winter.

The Cardinals were poised to undertake a roster “reset,” as president of baseball operations John Mozeliak put it, that featured a trade of Nolan Arenado. But Arenado vetoed a deal to the Astros and batted cleanup on opening day in St. Louis.

Ryan Helsley didn’t get traded either, and two months into the season, the hard-throwing closer is 12-for-14 in save opportunities for the surprising Cardinals, who were in possession of the final NL wild card through Thursday.

Can they keep it up?

» READ MORE: The Phillies are headed to a ‘point of pain’ with their bullpen. Could they have avoided it, and what’s the fix?

There may not be a more pertinent question hovering over the reliever market.

It’s probably going to take more than 90 wins to lock up a playoff spot in a deep NL field. So it could get late early for teams that can’t stop flirting with .500. We’re looking at you, Brewers and Reds, but also you, Braves and Diamondbacks.

The Cardinals aren’t in that group. Not yet. They were 18-7 in May entering the final weekend of the month, winning despite a front office that seemingly had other plans.

Just in case, though, the contenders will continue to target Helsley, who can take his triple-digit fastball to the free-agent market after the season. If the Cardinals can get back a package similar to what the Phillies gave up for Estévez, they might have to consider it.

Record: 29-27, through Thursday

Playoff odds: 35.7%, via FanGraphs

Could a major league team really host playoff games in a minor league ballpark?

It’s not so far-fetched.

The Rays entered the weekend with 13 wins in 19 games since the Phillies bludgeoned them for 22 runs in a three-game sweep May 6-8 at the temporary home in Tampa, Fla., that they’re borrowing from the Yankees. They’re on a roll, and amid the mediocrity of the AL, it might actually be sustainable.

» READ MORE: Can Kyle Schwarber hit 500 home runs? It’s not that far-fetched. Here’s how he can get there.

Not only did the Rays enter the weekend with the AL’s third-best run differential (plus-30), but they also could get ace Shane McClanahan back in the second half after he irritated a nerve in his triceps in spring training while trying to return from Tommy John surgery.

So maybe the Rays will go for it. They missed the playoffs last season for the first time since 2018 and have an opportunity to get back into the tournament.

But the schedule toughens in the second half. Forced out of the domed comfort of Tropicana Field, the Rays were front-loaded with home games to avoid the rainy season in Florida and will play 41 of 58 games on the road from June 24 to Aug. 31.

What if the vagabond Rays stub their toe early in the summer? Or if McClanahan’s slow recovery takes even longer? In that case, the Rays could recoup value in a trade for reliever Pete Fairbanks, who has an affordable $7 million club option for next season.

Fairbanks blew his only save of the season May 8 against the Phillies. But the 31-year-old righty dialed up 97-98 mph fastballs to post a scoreless inning against them one night earlier. He had a 2.05 ERA and 22 strikeouts in 22 innings entering the weekend.

Record: 27-31, through Thursday

Playoff odds: 17.7%, via FanGraphs

In a 10-inning loss Wednesday that punctuated a sweep in Milwaukee, the Red Sox blew three leads and made three errors that resulted in three unearned runs.

Rock bottom? If not, it’ll be a long summer in Boston.

There’s already a whiff of dysfunction in the air at Fenway. The Sox signed third baseman Alex Bregman without asking if Rafael Devers was comfortable as a DH. Devers finally relented after protesting in spring training. Then, when Triston Casas suffered a season-ending knee injury, Devers declined to move to first base and publicly questioned general manager Craig Breslow.

As the Red Sox turn, they’re also in a downturn. Entering the weekend, they lost five games in a row and 11 of 16. Bregman, their best player, strained his quadriceps this week and could miss two months.

» READ MORE: Need a rest? J.T. Realmuto will never admit it, even as his offense dips. But his value goes beyond his bat.

You see how this is trending.

Even if the Red Sox don’t fully wave the white flag, they could trade lefty closer Aroldis Chapman, who has provided a solid return (2.05 ERA, 8-for-9 in save chances through Thursday) on their $10.75 million, one-year investment. He’s throwing more strikes, too, reducing his walk rate to 9%, his lowest mark since 2020.

Chapman checks many boxes that often entice Dombrowski, notably hair-raising velocity. Even at age 37, he’s among the hardest-throwing relievers in the sport, with a 99.2 mph average on his fastball.

And Chapman has been a deadline darling before, moving to the Cubs in 2016 and the Rangers in 2023.

In both cases, he helped his new team win the World Series.