Phillies offseason primer: Outfield upgrade (Juan Soto?), spending outlook, fixing the bullpen, and more

Bryce Harper was chatting with reporters after the All-Star Game when someone noted that he appeared to enjoy a conversation at first base with Juan Soto, his former teammate in Washington and the marquee free agent this winter.

Any interest in a reunion with the Phillies?

“Obviously,” Harper said, “any time you’re able to get a player like that, I think there’s going to be a lot of teams that line up for him. I don’t think it’s going to happen, obviously.”

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How about now?

The Phillies’ circumstances have changed in three months. Way back in July, they were the class of baseball. But it’s only the second weekend in October, and their postseason is over, extinguished after four games in the division series by the buzz saw Mets, an outcome that star shortstop Trea Turner characterized as a “failure.”

Built to win it all, with World Series-or-bust practically tattooed across their foreheads, and knocked out one round earlier than last year — which ended one round earlier than the year before it — the Phillies are heading into a pivotal offseason. How much will the roster actually change? Time will tell.

It’s doubtful, though, that owner John Middleton will stop pushing now in a 15-year pursuit to “get my [expletive] trophy back.” Last winter, he made the highest bid for righty Yoshinobu Yamamoto, even though the Phillies didn’t have a vacancy in the starting rotation. (Yamamoto took less to sign with the Dodgers, his geographical preference.)

After Middleton watched the Phillies bat .186 and score 12 runs in the four games against the Mets, would anyone put it past him to go big for another hitter? And none is bigger than Soto.

OK, so it’s probably a long shot, considering the Yankees want to keep Soto, and the Mets are among the teams interested in prying him away. But everything should and probably will be on the table, as president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski seeks to fortify a roster that had more holes than even team officials seemed to realize.

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The Phillies did win 95 games and a division title after making the rare decision to bring back nearly a carbon copy of the 2023 team. But there will also be less tolerance for the status quo after the bats went Arctic cold for a second consecutive postseason series and the bullpen melted down with an 11.37 ERA.

If Dombrowski brought back the same team for a third consecutive season and claimed he expected a different result, well, fans would question his sanity.

Here, then, is a primer for an earlier-than-expected offseason:

Since they signed Harper in 2019, the Phillies’ approach to their most immediate roster needs has been to throw money at them while building up the farm system and waiting for it to bear fruit.

Generally speaking, it has worked.

The Phillies’ annual win total has risen along with their payroll, which projects this year to come in at about $261 million for luxury tax purposes. They will pay roughly $13 million in luxury tax, the third consecutive year that Middleton has received a tax bill.

» READ MORE: Bryce Harper knows the Phillies’ time is now. But he also believes their window isn’t close to shutting.

Indications are that Middleton won’t turn off the spigot now. But the Phillies already have 11 players under contract next season for $220.5 million, calculated for the luxury tax. It isn’t the most flexible roster.

The highly paid core is intact through 2025. J.T. Realmuto and Kyle Schwarber will be the first to reach free agency, after next season, and Nick Castellanos’ contract will expire a year after that. So there’s still time for them to win together.

But they’re all over 30 and will be one year older next season. So will Harper, Turner, Zack Wheeler, and Aaron Nola. With age comes a heightened risk of injury. The Phillies have stayed remarkably healthy, especially in the pitching realm, relative to the Dodgers, Braves, and other NL contenders. How long will it last?

“This is going to be a crazy answer, but I think my prime is for the next 10 years,” said Harper, who turns 32 Wednesday. “I don’t think I’m faltering in any way, kind of the way I run my stuff and what I do to get ready for the seasons and things like that.”

Wheeler, 34, wants to pitch for three more seasons, so the Phillies signed him to a $126 million extension that runs through 2027.

Realistically, the window will remain open until then.

“Obviously it’s getting shorter. Right?” Harper said. “But I think at the same time you don’t pay Wheels and Nols if you don’t think you’re going to be competitive for the next five years.”

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Indeed, the most fascinating decisions might involve the collection of players beneath the core of thirtysomethings. Because Alec Bohm, Bryson Stott, Brandon Marsh, and Ranger Suárez have taken turns inspiring confidence that they’re part of the long-term plan while also shaking the Phillies’ belief in them.

Another wave of prospects is on the way, but none is particularly close to reaching the majors. Andrew Painter will pitch in the Arizona Fall League, a milestone in his return from Tommy John surgery. But it’s doubtful he will be an option for the rotation until a few months into next season. Center fielder Justin Crawford played 40 games in double A this year; shortstop Aidan Miller played five.

Last year, after the bats were muted by the Diamondbacks in Games 6 and 7 of the NL Championship Series, the Phillies added two hitting coaches to work with a group of free swingers on chasing fewer pitches out of the strike zone.

But the problem only persisted.

The Phillies use the word chase more often than when Chase Utley anchored the lineup. Turner and Castellanos, the biggest offenders, shaved a few percentage points off their rate of swinging at balls. But the lineup as a whole remains susceptible to breaking pitches in the dirt and elevated fastballs. Opponents know it and exploit it.

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Or maybe the Phillies make it easy on them.

“I personally think we get ourselves out,” Turner said. “I don’t think it matters who’s on the mound. I think a lot of guys in this room feel that way, as well. It’s easy to sit in the dugout and say, ‘Don’t swing at this pitch,’ or ‘Do this, do that.’ But when you’re in the box, you’ve got to make a decision how you’re going to compete. I think we want to compete.”

In other words, Turner, Castellanos, and several others are up there to swing. They’re aggressive. It’s in their DNA, and that’s fine.

But it’s difficult to have a lineup full of the same style of hitter. For every free-swinger, it helps to have a hitter who excels at putting the bat on the ball, no matter where it’s pitched. Think of the Padres’ Luis Arraez or the Guardians’ Steven Kwan, and you get the idea.

Left field and center field are the easiest positions to plug in a player who could add a different dimension to the offense. The Phillies were tied for 15th in the majors with a .710 OPS out of left field and 20th with a .644 mark in center.

Marsh looks increasingly like the lefty-hitting side of a left field platoon. But his high strikeout rate is problematic within the context of the rest of the lineup. If the Phillies got more production out of left field, it would be easier to stick with Johan Rojas’ .601 OPS in center.

» READ MORE: The Phillies’ ‘longer-term bet’ on Cristopher Sanchez looked like a misstep. Then he found his pitch.

They surely will be linked to Soto, who has a strong relationship with hitting coach Kevin Long from their shared time in Washington. They could pursue Cody Bellinger if he elects free agency. White Sox center fielder Luis Robert Jr. will be on the trade market again, although his swing-and-miss tendencies wouldn’t change the lineup’s overall look.

Dombrowski might have to find a more creative solution. Could the Phillies trade Marsh, for instance, for an outfielder with better bat-to-ball skills? Could they sign free-agent infielder Alex Bregman, a disciplined hitter with a winning pedigree, and move Bohm or Stott for outfield help?

The Phillies will discuss every possible avenue.

This should be an exciting time for Jeff Hoffman, who is on the verge of becoming a free agent after the best season of his career.

But after the Phillies were ousted by the Mets, he wept.

“It’s hard to think about right now,” Hoffman said.

There wasn’t a bigger Phillies success story over the last two seasons. Hoffman signed a minor-league contract at the end of spring training in 2023 and got called up after impressing the staff while throwing live batting practice to Harper, who was rehabbing from Tommy John surgery.

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By the end of the season, Hoffman rated among Thomson’s most trusted relievers. He was even better this season. In 122 appearances, he posted a 2.28 ERA and 158 strikeouts in 118⅔ innings, a body of work that will land him a lucrative contract this winter.

Maybe it’ll be with the Phillies.

“That’s all I want,” Hoffman said.

The Phillies’ starting rotation will remain largely unchanged, with only the fifth-starter spot up for grabs. It eventually will belong to Painter, though probably not at the outset of the season.

But Hoffman and trade-deadline addition Carlos Estévez are free agents in a bullpen that will include lefties Matt Strahm, José Alvarado, and Tanner Banks, and righties Orion Kerkering and possibly José Ruiz. When the Phillies gave up two pitching prospects for Estévez, Dombrowski hinted at possibly keeping him beyond this season.

“That would be great,” Estévez said. “But let’s see. You know how it is.”

Otherwise, Estévez’s lasting legacy with the Phillies will be the 99-mph fastball over the plate that Francisco Lindor smashed into the bullpen for a grand slam in the sixth inning of Game 4.

The impact of that swing — the knockout blow, as it turned out — could set up a fascinating Phillies offseason.