Ranking the Phillies’ top 10 prospects: Key question, 2025 outlook for each

It didn’t require much squinting for the Phillies to see Starlyn Caba as a future major league shortstop.

But for an organization that’s trying to balance winning a World Series with a $300 million roster and ripening the farm system, there are limits to how many prospects can be off-limits in trades. So, after a year of hanging up on teams that called about Caba, the Phillies dealt him to the Marlins in December for lefty starter Jesús Luzardo.

Even so, the Phillies wouldn’t have made the move if not for Luzardo’s reasonable salary ($6.225 million this year) and two seasons of club control. At least not for Caba, “who we like a great deal,” president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski said last month.

» READ MORE: Phillies storylines to watch in 2025: Transforming Trea Turner, welcoming back Alec Bohm, and more

But while Caba recently cracked Baseball America’s top 100 prospects list at No. 72, the Phillies’ farm system still features Andrew Painter (No. 9), Aidan Miller (36), Eduardo Tait (93), and Justin Crawford (96). Painter is expected to make his major league debut this year; Miller and Crawford will join him as nonroster invitees to major league camp.

And because pitchers and catchers are due to report for spring training in less than two weeks, it’s time for The Inquirer’s ranking of the top 10 Phillies prospects, an annual exercise carried out with input from opposing scouts.

Age: 22 (on April 10) | Height/weight: 6-foot-7 / 215 | Throws: Right

2024 stats: Did not pitch (injured).

Outlook: He’s baaaaaaack. Sort of. Eighteen months after an elbow ligament reconstruction, Painter will throw bullpen sessions and do everything else with the healthy pitchers in major league camp. But he won’t pitch in spring training games, Dombrowski said, because the Phillies want to balance an innings limit in his return from injury with having him available later in the season.

» READ MORE: Andrew Painter is healthy and pitching again. Here’s how the Phillies are planning for his return in 2025.

Key question: When will he finally make his major league debut?

“July-ish,” in Dombrowski’s words. If all goes as planned in a buildup that will continue in Clearwater after camp breaks and proceed through the minors, Painter will touch down in Philly by the summer. He affirmed his health — and cemented his status as a top-five pitching prospect in the sport — by dominating the Arizona Fall League (2.30 ERA, four walks, 18 strikeouts in 15⅔ innings). His fastball returned to the upper-90s, and he flashed a harder slider. “He’s one of the best pitchers I’ve seen,” Guardians top prospect Chase DeLauter told MLB.com. “Elite stuff.”

Age: 21 (on June 9) | Height/weight: 6-2 / 205 | Bats/throws: Right

2024 stats: .275/.401/.483, 5 HR, 14.3% walk rate, 21.4% strikeout rate at low-A Clearwater (182 plate appearances); .258/.353/.444, 5 HR, 11.6% BB rate, 22.1% K rate at high-A Jersey Shore (258 PA); .191/.227/.191, 0 HR, 0 BB%, 18.2% K rate at double-A Reading (22 PA).

Outlook: Through 18 games after getting promoted to high-A in June, Miller batted .167 with one homer, 19 strikeouts, and a .558 OPS. Over his next 40 games, he batted .296 with five homers, 38 strikeouts, and an .897 OPS. And scouts who didn’t already believe in him were converted to the cult. “All-Star upside,” said one NL talent evaluator. “He’s got a good chance to succeed as a high-contact, extra-base-hit guy in the 20- to 25-homer realm by 2026.”

» READ MORE: Aidan Miller ‘can get used to this’ after teaming up with Phillies top prospects

Key question: Is he a long-term shortstop?

When the Phillies drafted Miller in the first round in 2023, the industry presumption was that he eventually would shift over to third base. It hasn’t happened. And with Trea Turner likely to move from shortstop within the next few years, it’s sensible to keep Miller where he is. Besides, as one scout noted, Miller is “not flashy or quick, but steady, poised, and very instinctive” at shortstop.

Age: 21 | Height/weight: 6-1 / 175 | Bats/throws: Left/right

2024 stats: .301/.349/.438, 6 HR, 27-for-35 stolen bases, 6.6% BB rate, 20.1% K rate at Jersey Shore (317 PA); .333/.380/.455, 3 HR, 15-for-16 SB, 6.1% BB rate, 16.1% K rate at Reading (180 PA).

Outlook: Within the scouting community, the most frequently cited criticism of Crawford is his extreme tendency to hit the ball on the ground. It’s notable, then, that his ground-ball rate went from 69.7% in 2023 to 60.9% last year. There’s room for further improvement, but given his speed, Crawford can turn ant-killing grounders into infield hits. He led the farm system in hits (143) and was second in doubles (25) last season, then homered to lead Team USA into the medal round of the Premier 12 tournament in November.

» READ MORE: Phillies prospect Justin Crawford lived ‘a dream’ playing for Team USA

Key question: Will he graduate to the majors this year?

The Phillies have had seven opening-day center fielders in the last seven years. Crawford is a long shot to be No. 8. But if Crawford makes an impression in his first major league camp, Dombrowski won’t be shy about pushing him. With the Red Sox, Dombrowski called up Andrew Benintendi at age 21 from double A in 2016 and Rafael Devers at age 20 after nine triple-A games in 2017. Crawford’s father, Carl, made his major league debut at age 20. Justin’s time is coming.

Age: 18 | Height/weight: 5-11 / 219 | Bats/throws: Left/right

2024 stats: .321/.377/.500, 6 HR, 6.1% BB rate, 14.6% K rate in rookie ball (212 PA); .269/.316/.462, 5 HR, 7% BB rate, 28.9% K rate at Clearwater (114 PA).

Outlook: In 1998, the Phillies signed a teenage catcher from Panama for $8,000. Carlos Ruiz turned out to be pretty good. They returned to that Central American country in 2022 and paid $90,000 for Tait. So far, the reviews are positive. Tait’s calling card is his left-handed power that one scout labeled as “special.” In his first season in the United States, he registered some of the highest exit velocities recorded by Phillies minor leaguers. After beginning the season in rookie ball, he ended it as one of the youngest players in the Florida State League.

» READ MORE: J.T. Realmuto or … who? The Phillies will face a complex decision with their star catcher.

Key question: Will he stay behind the plate?

It can be difficult for talent evaluators to predict the future of a catching prospect because of the responsibility that comes with the position. When the catcher is still a teenager, the projection is nearly impossible. One scout cited Tait’s arm strength and said he “has the raw tools to continue to mature defensively.” Another cautioned that Tait’s “fully developed body” might keep growing and take him out from behind the plate. Either way, he’s light-years away from the majors. But his journey will be fascinating to follow.

Age: 22 (on June 9) | Height/weight: 6-1 / 213 | Throws: Right

2024 stats: 3.46 ERA, 1.288 WHIP, 13.5% walk rate, 34.2% strikeout rate at Orioles’ high-A Aberdeen (52 innings); 4.15 ERA, 1.038 WHIP, 8.6% BB rate, 37.1% K rate at Jersey Shore (8⅔ IP); 3.66 ERA, 1.068 WHIP, 9.1% BB rate, 45.5% K rate at Reading (19⅔ IP).

Outlook: After trading two pitching prospects (George Klassen and Sam Aldegheri) to the Angels at the deadline for reliever Carlos Estévez, the Phillies got two back (Chace and Seth Johnson) from the Orioles for lefty Gregory Soto. Chace struck out 48 of 112 batters in six starts between Jersey Shore and Reading and exhibited better control than in the past in Baltimore’s system. How’s that for a strong first impression?

» READ MORE: Meet the pitching prospects the Phillies got in the Gregory Soto trade: Seth Johnson and Moisés Chace

Key question: Does he project as a starter or a reliever?

A lot will ride on the development of Chace’s slider — and, to a lesser extent, changeup. He throws two variations of a slider: a sweeper and a hard cutter. The latter is a more recent addition and figures to help against left-handed hitters. If he can command both sliders, in addition to a fastball that comes from a low arm slot and tends to miss bats, he will have the weapons to go through a lineup multiple times.

Age: 23 | Height/weight: 6-5 / 190 | Throws: Right

2024 stats: 6.46 ERA, 1.813 WHIP, 15.1% BB rate, 22.7% K rate at triple-A Lehigh Valley (108⅔ innings).

Outlook: Look out below. Once regarded alongside Painter as No. 1 and 1A in the Phillies system, Abel is tumbling down the prospect chart after a dreadful season in which he couldn’t throw strikes consistently. His struggles began with an illness late in spring training, and things got only marginally better. (Abel had a 6.88 ERA at the All-Star break, 5.75 thereafter.) But he stayed healthy and topped 100 innings for a second consecutive season.

» READ MORE: From 2023: Don’t forget about Mick Abel, the other half of the Phillies’ best pitching prospect duo in 20 years

Key question: Was 2024 a developmental speed bump or a warning sign?

Perspective is important. Abel pitched last season at 22, five years younger than the average age in the triple-A International League, according to Baseball-Reference.com. That isn’t insignificant. He’s also a cerebral student of pitching, and with a five-pitch repertoire, there’s a lot for him to think about. Maybe he’d benefit from simplifying things. Mostly, though, it comes down to throwing strikes and trusting his stuff to get high-level hitters out.

Nori’s age: 20 | Height/weight: 5-10 / 190 | Bats/throws: Left

Burkholder’s age: 19 | Height/weight: 6-2 / 195 | Bats/throws: Right

Nori’s 2024 stats: .240/.424/.280, 0 HR, 4-for-6 SB, 24.2% BB rate, 21.2% K rate at Clearwater (66 PA)

Burkholder’s 2024 stats: .500/.500/1.500, 0 HR, 0% BB rate, 0% K rate at Clearwater (2 PA)

Outlook: It feels like a cop-out to lump together the Phillies’ first two picks from the 2024 draft, but the on-field sample size isn’t large enough for scouts to separate them. Burkholder, in particular, played only four innings in his pro debut Aug. 13 before straining his hamstring. After a glimpse of Nori, one scout noted his speed and on-base ability and projected a Johnny “Damon-esque-type ceiling” as a center fielder.

» READ MORE: Phillies draft high school outfielders Dante Nori and Griffin Burkholder with their first two picks

Key question: Which outfielder will be the better player?

The comparisons are inevitable. Not only were Nori and Burkholder drafted only 36 picks apart, but both came out of high school. They even got identical signing bonuses ($2,497,500). Nori’s speed and defense in center field might make him the safer bet; Burkholder’s right-handed power potential might boost his ceiling. They’re expected to share the outfield for Clearwater this season.

Age: 24 (on March 3) | Height/weight: 6-3 / 225 | Bats/throws: Left/right

2024 stats: .263/.357/.487, 11 HR, 20-for-27 SB, 11.6% BB rate, 25.6% K rate at Reading (258 PA)

Outlook: After missing two months last season with a torn ligament in his right thumb, Rincones batted .296 with eight doubles, six homers, and a .961 OPS in his first 23 games upon rejoining Reading’s lineup. Consider it a snapshot of his potential. To make up for lost time, the Phillies sent him to the Arizona Fall League, where he reached base at a .367 clip with only two homers but also just seven strikeouts in 90 plate appearances. If he stays healthy, there’s 20-homer/20-steal upside.

» READ MORE: From 2023: The Phillies’ next great hitting prospect might be a Scottish Venezuelan-American with a frame like Pat Burrell

Key question: Could he contribute in the majors this season?

Maybe. It’s no secret the Phillies lack corner-outfield depth, but they’re so thin that they recently purchased 22-year-old Dylan Campbell from the Dodgers for international bonus money. Rincones might open the season back in double A, but it won’t be long before he’s in Lehigh Valley. And if the Phillies need help beyond Nick Castellanos, Max Kepler, Brandon Marsh, Johan Rojas, Weston Wilson, and perhaps out-of-options Kody Clemens, they will reach down and find … Rincones?

Age: 23 | Height/weight: 6-0 / 160 | Throws: Right

2024 stats: 3.39 ERA, 1.091 WHIP, 8% BB rate, 29% K rate at Jersey Shore (77 IP); 4.85 ERA, 1.517 WHIP, 6.1% BB rate, 14.4% K rate at Reading (29⅔ IP).

Outlook: The Phillies added Cabrera to the 40-man roster in November because they didn’t want to risk losing him in the Rule 5 draft. And he probably would’ve been selected. Never mind his slight build. The skinny righty pitched into the sixth inning in 10 of 19 starts and struck out nearly 25% of batters. He does it with two fastballs but also an above-average changeup that is widely considered his best pitch.

» READ MORE: Will Bryson Stott and Orion Kerkering be part of the next Phillies core? Their 2025 seasons will be telling.

Key question: Is his future in the bullpen?

Undersize pitchers don’t tend to stick in starting rotations. Across baseball last season, only eight 5-foot-11 or shorter pitchers made at least five starts. The Phillies haven’t had a 5-foot-11 or shorter pitcher make at least five starts in a season since Pedro Martínez and Antonio Bastardo in 2009. Cabrera has the repertoire to be a starter. It will come down to commanding his pitches and staying healthy.

Age: 20 | Height/weight: 5-10 / 180 | Bats/throws: Right

2024 stats: .338/.495/.481, 3 HR, 9-for-9 SB, 20.2% BB rate, 9.6% K rate in rookie ball (104 PA).

Outlook: Remember this name. Multiple scouts listed Escobar as a sleeper in the Phillies’ farm system. He signed for $450,000 out of Venezuela in 2022 and made a solid, albeit brief, stateside debut last season in the Florida Complex League. Sidelined by double shin splints after 24 games, he flashed impressive bat-to-ball skills and sneaky power. One NL scout compared him to the Astros’ Isaac Paredes for both his contact rate and infield versatility.

» READ MORE: The Phillies’ reliever numbers don’t add up now, but that’s part of Dave Dombrowski’s bullpen-building calculation

Key question: Where does he stack up among Phillies infield prospects?

Bryan Rincon, a switch-hitting shortstop who turns 21 next week, gets strong reviews for his defense. Devin Saltiban, who turns 20 next month, has more advanced skills at the plate and the versatility to project as a utility player in the majors. Given his age and inexperience, Escobar might be more of a project but have a higher ceiling, according to one NL scout. The Phillies figure to challenge him at the low-A level.