Zack Wheeler and Aaron Nola won’t like it, but the Phillies should use a six-man rotation when Ranger Suárez returns
They've thrown more innings than any other pitchers in the majors over the last five years, and they're not getting any younger. They should take an extra day whenever they can.
Of all the concerns facing the Phillies in the first three mediocre weeks of the Run It Back season, none is as chilling as the inconsistency of their horses. Not the situational hitting, not the black hole of offense in center field, not the spotty bullpen work.
The main reasons the Phillies have made the playoffs the last three seasons are Zack Wheeler and Aaron Nola.
Since arriving in Philadelphia in 2020, entering this season Wheeler had pitched 899⅓ innings, including the playoffs. That’s second in baseball.
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Who’s first? Nola, with 903⅔, innings.
Wheeler is 34. Nola is 31.
Wheeler began the season fast, but he’s given up nine runs in his last two starts. Nola had given up 10 runs in his first three starts, then gave up four in the first inning Wednesday night against the Giants. He’s lost four in a row for the first time in his career.
Both are slaves to healthy routines. Both are well-conditioned professionals. Both should, generally, be left alone.
But both also are 30-something workhorses who are having a hard time finding their legs after five straight years of getting ridden hard. Sometimes, the great ones don’t know what’s best for them.
Never fear. Help is on the way.
The Phillies left Ranger Suárez in Clearwater, Fla., after spring training to rehabilitate his chronically balky back. Suárez pitched the second of three rehab starts on Wednesday. He has allowed one run and struck out 11 in his first two rehab starts with low-A Clearwater.
When Suárez comes back, instead of moving a starter to the bullpen, the Phillies should plan to absorb Suárez into their rotation as the sixth starter.
This would protect everyone. Newcomer Jesús Luzardo is coming off an injury in 2024 and averaged 140 innings in his previous two seasons, his first seasons as a full-time starter. Suárez has averaged 144 innings his previous three seasons, his first three seasons as a starter. Cristopher Sánchez, who has a history of injuries, pitched a career-high 181⅔ innings last season.
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But the Phillies’ chief motivation to use a six-man rotation should be preservation of the 30-somethings at the top of their rotation. Not only have they been baseball’s most-used pitchers of the past decade, but they also are owed a combined $273 million, including this season. It’s protection of investment.
What affords the Phillies this luxury?
The unexpected competence of No. 5 starter Taijuan Walker; 14⅔ of his 15⅔ innings this season have been scoreless. They should take advantage of this phenomenon for as long as it lasts.
Inevitably, Walker will revert to form; after all, his lifetime ERA as a starter entering 2025 was 4.15 ERA.
Inevitably, one of the starters will get hurt.
Has the six-man option been a topic of discussion?
“Not yet,” manager Rob Thomson told me Tuesday night.
Don’t expect this idea to be adapted without protest.
Nola’s reaction Tuesday to a possible six-man rotation? “I … don’t know.”
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Wheeler despises extra days. He likes to stay in rhythm.
At some point, though, preference must succumb to priority. Bryce Harper was willing to move to first base and this past offseason said he’d be willing to move back to right field. He adjusted. Wheeler can adjust. He has before.
Two years ago, when the Phillies added Michael Lorenzen at the July 31 trade deadline, Wheeler went 3-1 with a 2.80 ERA in six starts before the Phillies resumed a five-man carousel in mid-September.
Early last season, when Walker rejoined the rotation after missing the first four weeks, the Phillies briefly went to a six-man rotation in an attempt to continue to use red-hot swingman Spencer Turnbull. Wheeler gave up two runs in 12 innings in his two six-man starts.
He might not prefer to get an extra day of rest, but it certainly didn’t hurt him.
Historically, Wheeler is a better pitcher on four days of rest. His career ERA on five days’ rest is 3.65, and 3.55 on six or more days’ rest — a regular occurrence with a six-man rotation — while it’s 3.03 on four days’ rest.
But this can’t just be about Wheels.
Nola’s ERA on five days of rest is 3.23. It’s 4.12 on four days’ rest, a difference of nearly a full run. He’s clearly better with the extra day. He’s at 4.16 on six or more days of rest.
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If Nola and Wheeler stay healthy in a five-man rotation, each should expect to throw another season with slightly more than 190 innings, their combined average since 2021 (2020 was abbreviated by the COVID-19 pandemic).
If the Phillies give them an extra day here and there, that number could shrink to 175 or maybe even 170. That means they wouldn’t hit the 200 mark unless they pitched 25 innings in the playoffs.
That’s a huge advantage.
In case you’re wondering how much more work Wheeler and Nola have handled than the next busiest pitchers, it’s not really close.
Yankees ace Gerritt Cole entered the season with 866⅔ total innings pitched since 2020, but Cole just had Tommy John surgery and will miss the 2025 season.
Underrated Astros lefty Framber Valdez is next, with 866 innings, but he’s 1-2 with a 4.91 ERA and was battered in the two losses, most recently a four-inning, five-double, seven-run debacle Monday in St. Louis.
Nobody else is close.
In fact, nobody but Valdez is even within 65 innings of Wheeler and Nola.
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Even if everyone stays healthy, the six-man rotation needn’t be a season-long strategy. Saving Wheeler and Nola even, say, 15 innings or 20 innings in May, June, and July would mean a stronger front line duo in an August and September stretch run.
With the Mets and Braves stalking the powerful NL East, and with the Giants and Padres looking valid in the NL West, the Phillies don’t look like a team that will be pulling away any time soon.
They’re going to need a strong stretch run to return to the playoffs.
The fresher the horses, the better.