Forgot about the Phillies? Two big reasons they are still a threat to win 100 games

CLEARWATER, Fla. — The first day of full-squad workouts is an easy day to believe. It’s as true for teams eyeing 80 wins as it is for those reaching for 100. The rest of the world may snicker when the Phillies suggest they are nowhere different, and even further along, than they were last season. But the rest of the world is not here. It is back north, where skies are gray and trees are toppling and thermostats are still set to heat.

Not here, my friends. Here, the mitt makes a different sound when thwacked by an Orion Kerkering heater. Here, Jordan Romano strikes out the first two batters he faces in live batting practice. Here, Cristopher Sánchez is walking around in a sleeveless Phillies compression shirt looking like he modeled his offseason off Bryce Harper’s TikTok.

» READ MORE: The next Chan Ho Park and Chad Durbin? Phillies think Joe Ross can be that and maybe more

We saw all of those things on the first day of full-squad workouts at BayCare Ballpark and the Carpenter Complex. We also saw Jesús Luzardo throw a bullpen session alongside Zack Wheeler. He looked like he did a couple of seasons ago, when he and Wheeler were taking turns on the mound in Game 1 of the 2023 wild-card series. Back when he was regarded as something much closer to a No. 1 starter than a No. 5.

“If we keep ‘em healthy,” Phillies manager Rob Thomson said. “That’s the key. With everybody.”

He was talking about Luzardo. But, as he noted, he could have been talking about any of them.

And, yeah, everybody else.

But let’s take health out of the equation, for a second. It isn’t the reason the world is doubting the Phillies. Rather, they are looking at a National League that has seen contenders like the Dodgers, Mets, and Diamondbacks get significantly better.

The concern is valid. But it shouldn’t overshadow the potential that still exists on this Phillies roster. Once upon a time, teams were expected to make most of their improvements from within. The Phillies happen to be a team where that isn’t an unreasonable expectation.

» READ MORE: Bryce Harper knows the Dodgers (and Mets?) are the new Evil Empire. Frankly, he respects it.

“I think Stott’s going to have a better year,” Thomson said. “[Brandon] Marsh didn’t have a bad year, but there’s still more in there. And I think there’s still more in [Alec] Bohm, too. I hope those guys have better years and I kinda think they will.”

The path to 100 wins isn’t nearly as fraught as the offseason report cards might suggest. Better starting pitching, further development from some of the younger hitters, better luck. That’s the formula.

Consider two scenarios …

1. In 2024, the Phillies went 75-48 in games started by their top four starters.

2. In 2023, the Marlins went 19-13 in games started by Jesús Luzardo.

3. If the Phillies go 19-13 in games started by Luzardo this season, and 75-48 in games started by their returning four starters, then that would make them 94-61 with seven games unaccounted for.

4. If Andrew Painter starts those seven games, and the Phillies win at the same clip in those starts, it would leave them with 98 or 99 wins.

» READ MORE: A healthy Bryson Stott hopes to move past his down season and return to 2023 form

Lots of “ifs,” sure. But the logic is much less complex. When the Phillies had one of their top four starters on the mound in 2024, they played at a 98-win pace. The big problem was the drop-off after the top four. They lost 11 of 15 starts by Taijuan Walker and went 16-8 in starts by a hodgepodge of others.

With Luzardo joining the rotation this season, there won’t be any drop-off. Painter is still something of a wild card, but the current thinking is he’ll factor in sometime later in the season, and will further help to fill the gaps with a quality arm. Point being, the Phillies could easily turn 95 wins into 100 wins by improving their starting pitching alone.

“He’s really got good stuff,” Thomson said. “He feels good right now. We just want to keep him right there. Keep building.”

Again, focus on the underlying logic. Stott was a 4.8 WAR 9wins above replacement) hitter in 2023, according to Baseball-Reference.com. He was a 2.5 WAR hitter in 2024. That’s a difference of 1.8 WAR.

Typically, you wouldn’t figure Stott’s 2024 season as an anomaly, given his small career sample. But his elbow injury gives us a credible reason to believe in the 2023 version. On Monday, Stott offered details on the nerve irritation that impacted his swing throughout much of the last four months of the season. Assuming the injury is behind him — and he seems to think that it is — Stott could count for another win or two in the standings.

Or more.

» READ MORE: It’s up to Kevin Long to bring about change with Phillies hitters. And it starts with Trea Turner.

Remember, Stott was one of the key drivers of the Phillies’ blistering start last season. On May 18, he was hitting .280 with a .393 OBP, a .462 slugging percentage, and five home runs in 163 plate appearances. The Phillies were 33-14.

Over the rest of the season, Stott hit .233/.284/.318 with six home runs in 408 plate appearances. The Phillies went 62-53.

“Just do what I did in ‘23,” Stott said.

This time of year, it’s easy to believe it will be so.