Zack Wheeler could break a Phillies record for consistent dominance in his start vs. Rockies
He could log a 13th straight regular-season start giving up two earned runs or fewer in at least six innings. He's already passed Cliff Lee and has his sights set on ol' Dutch Leonard.
WASHINGTON — Buried in the minutia of opening day trivia lay a trend that wasn’t trivial at all. The Phillies’ daily notes package Thursday in Washington included a tidbit that underscored the consistent excellence of ace Zack Wheeler. He was on the verge of a sustained consistency unmatched by any pitcher in Phillies history.
Wheeler ended 2024 with a string of 11 starts in which he lasted at least six innings and gave up two runs or fewer. That tied him with Cliff Lee for the second-longest such streak of starts by a Phillies pitcher dating back to 1912, when the National League adopted earned runs as an official stat. Lee’s run went from early August 2011 to early April 2012.
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Back in 1947, Dutch Leonard had a run of 12 starts of at least six innings with two earned runs or fewer. Leonard’s streak was, perhaps, more impressive, since he never went fewer than seven innings, and lasted nine innings in 10 of those games. He also blew a save between the fifth and sixth games of his streak.
It was a different era. Nobody was counting pitches in 1947.
They’re counting them now, and Wheeler’s making every pitch count.
On Thursday, after six more innings and just one earned run, Wheeler tied ol’ Dutch. He can pass him Wednesday, when the Phillies host the Rockies.
Wheeler is a bloodless sort from just northwest of Atlanta. He’s been a Cy Young runner-up and an All-Star twice. He’s pitched in 12 playoff games in the last three seasons, and his $42 million salary this year is No. 1 for a pitcher and No. 2 in baseball.
Little fazes him. Less impresses.
However, about an hour after Thursday’s 7-3 win, when told of his latest accomplishment, Wheeler, who was walking toward the showers, stopped and turned around. He asked for the information to be repeated. Then, he smiled.
“You know,” he said, “that one’s pretty cool.”
They’re all pretty cool.
In the five-plus seasons since Wheeler joined the Phillies as a free agent in 2020, only teammate Aaron Nola pitched more innings than his 835⅓. Among the 23 pitchers with at least 600 innings since 2020, Wheeler’s 2.93 ERA, 59 wins, and 4.80 strikeout-to-walk ratio rank third. He’s even better when the games are bigger.
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Wheeler’s 2.18 ERA ranks seventh in major league history among pitchers who have pitched at least 70 innings in the playoffs. His strikeout-to-walk ratio is 5.50, which ranks third. His walks and hits per inning pitched is 0.725, which ranks No. 1.
He’s good at the beginning of seasons, too. Thursday marked the fifth time in his six years with the Phillies that he has allowed zero or one run in his first start.
His catcher, J.T Realmuto, says Wheeler shines in the spotlight.
“I think when he gets that little bit of incentive, it takes him to another level. There’s a little more focus there,” Realmuto said. “Usually, the [velocity] ticks up because he’s got a little extra adrenaline, and he just seems hyper-focused in those moments. Opening day, we see the same version of Zack Wheeler as we have become accustomed to seeing him in the postseason.”
That doesn’t explain why he was so good for so long over the final 71⅓ innings of 2024, just his second 200-inning season.
“Yeah, to go on a streak like that that long, I feel there’s been multiple times where he’s gone out there and hasn’t had his best stuff,” Realmuto said. “Those are the outings where he just really grinds and finds a way to get quick outs without necessarily having his best stuff.”
That’s the earmark of all-time great pitchers, right? It’s how other Phillies studs like Steve Carlton and Jim Bunning and Robin Roberts earned their Hall of Fame plaques.
And no, it’s not fair to the horses of yesteryear to compare Wheeler’s current streak to their best days. When Carlton won 27 games for a horrid Phillies team in 1972, he started 41 games, threw 346⅓ innings, lasted between eight and 11 innings 33 times, gave up two runs or fewer 27 times, gave up zero runs 12 times, and had eight shutouts. Wheeler has three shutouts in his career.
But again, it was a different time.
Wheeler has learned to be the best version of himself, and, since he became a Phillie, that’s been the best version of any starter in baseball.
Wheeler will be 35 in May. He arrived in Philly as a free agent in 2020 with a 44-38 record and a 3.77 ERA in five seasons with the Mets. He’d been with the Mets organization since 2011, after the Giants drafted him sixth overall in 2009 then traded him for Carlos Beltrán. Wheeler debuted in the majors two years later, but lost 2015 and 2016 to two elbow surgeries, then found his footing.
Still, Wheeler said, he didn’t develop his steadfast self-confidence until his second year in Philadelphia. It was 2021 when he became so comfortable with his fastball control that he was unafraid to waste pitches.
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“I’m not scared to not strike guys out, to get quick outs, to make certain pitches just to see if hitters are going to be overaggressive or whatever,” Wheeler said. “Because now, more than likely, I’ll be able to throw a strike after that.”
Of course, when your fastball sits just above 96 mph and your sinker sits just a tick below, and you throw them about 60% of the time, and hitters hit just over .200 off them, then yes, you can rely on them.
“Having developed that command allows me to go deeper in the games and kind of, just, pitching, you know?” Wheeler said. “Just learning how to pitch over the years.”
He’s never pitched better than during this streak.
Batters are hitting .181 in the 12 starts. His ERA is 1.86.
As a matter of fact, or perhaps a matter of opinion, Wednesday might even not matter.
Why?
Because you could argue that Wheeler already passed Lee and already tied ol’ Dutch. That he did it in October, in Game 1 of the National League Division Series, when he pitched seven shutout innings against the Mets. That means he actually passed ol’ Dutch last Thursday.
I accept that argument.
Still can’t wait to see him pitch on Wednesday.