Pennsylvanians consider crime a major problem and think Trump will do a better job addressing it, our poll finds
The results come as the saliency of crime as a political issue has ebbed and flowed over the last several years.
Former President Donald Trump may be currently standing trial, but Pennsylvania voters still trust him more to handle crime.
That’s according to a Philadelphia Inquirer/New York Times/Siena College poll that shows about half of Pennsylvania voters think crime is a major problem in the state and that the electorate favors Trump over President Joe Biden on the issue.
When asked whether they trust Trump or Biden to do a better job on crime — regardless of for whom they might vote — 51% of respondents said Trump compared to 42% who said Biden. The poll was conducted between April 28 and May 7.
Trump performs well on the issue even in some of the state’s deep-blue enclaves. For example, while Biden leads Trump by 13 percentage points in the voter-rich Philadelphia suburbs, the candidates are tied at 46% among those same voters when asked who would do a better job on crime.
The results come as the saliency of crime as a political issue has ebbed and flowed over the last several years. Violent crime rates and shootings spiked across the country in 2020, but have been generally declining for more than a year. In Philadelphia, where public safety was the hands-down No. 1 issue in last year’s mayoral race, shootings and homicides are markedly lower this year compared to last.
Democrats locally have attempted to respond to accusations from the right that the party is weak on the issue by distancing themselves from calls to reduce police funding and talking more openly about improving public safety. But Republicans have continued to hit Democrats on the issue and tried to portray progressives as soft on crime.
Wayne DeCaria, a registered independent from Springfield, Delaware County, who voted for Trump in 2020, said he intends to vote for him again this year, citing crime as a major reason.
”One of the biggest issues is the crime rates in a lot of the major cities across America,” DeCaria, 22, said. “A lot of the support and aid that is going to other countries other than America, even though America has its handful of issues it needs to handle.”
Here are three other takeaways from the poll:
Philadelphians feel the least safe, by far.
Philadelphia voters were far more likely than other Pennsylvanians to say crime is a major issue in the state, with 73% saying it is. That’s compared to 54% of voters in the Philadelphia suburbs.
The difference became even more stark when voters were asked how they would describe crime in their local area. Seventy-two percent of Philadelphia voters said it’s a major problem.
The city was a major outlier on this question. No other place came close to that figure; the second highest amount was 16% of voters in the Lehigh Valley and Northeast Pennsylvania.
Voters statewide were also far more likely to say that they’re confident their own community will be “relatively safe in the future” compared to voters in the city.
Across the state, 34% of voters said they’re very confident compared to 17% of Philadelphia voters who said the same. Forty percent of Philadelphia voters say they aren’t confident they’ll be safe, more than double the statewide figure.
Three groups of voters are more likely to see crime as an issue
Older voters: Thirty-five percent of 18- to 29-year-olds said it was a major problem compared to 58% of respondents age 65 and over.
Non-white voters: Statewide, 65% of non-white voters said crime is a major problem, while 47% of white voters did. The non-white category in the poll includes voters who are Black, Hispanic/Latino, Asian, American Indian, Alaska Native, Middle Eastern or North African, Native Hawaiian or Pacific Islander.
Trump voters: About two-thirds of people who indicated they are likely to vote for Trump in a head-to-head with Biden were more likely to see crime as a major problem, while just 30% of likely Biden voters said the same.
It’s not clear if crime is driving votes
Most Pennsylvania voters see crime as a problem. Just over half of respondents said it was a major problem in the state, and an additional 41% said it’s a minor problem. Only 4% of voters said crime isn’t a problem statewide.
Some of it might be perception. When asked if crime is a problem in their own local area, the picture changed: Just 19% said it’s a major problem and a third of voters said it isn’t a problem at all in their area.
What’s unclear is whether the issue drives voters in a presidential race. It clearly motivated voters in last year’s local elections, but when voters were asked the most important issue deciding their vote in November, just 1% volunteered the issue.
Inquirer staff writer Aseem Shukla and Camille Baker of the New York Times contributed to this article.