2025 special election results in Wisconsin and Florida

While the 2026 midterms are more than a year and a half away, three special elections held Tuesday offered voters in Pennsylvania and across the country a sense of which way the political breeze was blowing.

In Wisconsin, the state Supreme Court will retain its 4-3 liberal makeup despite billionaire Elon Musk spending at least $20 million to promote the Republican-backed candidate. Among other things, the victory could help Democrats challenge congressional district boundaries in Wisconsin that overwhelmingly favor Republicans.

While Democrats narrowed their losses in Florida, Republicans still won both special elections Tuesday night, giving Speaker of the House Mike Johnson a bit of breathing room. Republicans will now control 220 seats in Congress, compared to 213 seats held by Democrats.

Democrats in Florida did greatly outperform their results in 2024, the latest sign President Donald Trump has alienated some of his supporters a little more than two months into his second term. Last week, Democrats narrowed the GOP majority in the Pennsylvania state Senate by flipping a Lancaster County seat in a district Trump won by 15 points.

“In a district carried comfortably by President Donald Trump just a few months ago, they chose a better way forward — an embrace of competence, common sense, and a desire to bring people together," Gov. Josh Shapiro said in a statement.

Here’s what to know about the three special elections:

Race: 6th Congressional District (which includes Daytona Beach and Palm Coast along the Atlantic Ocean)

Candidates: Randy Fine (R), Josh Weil (D)

What was the result: Fine was declared the winner by the Associated Press at 7:30 p.m. Eastern

Why was there a special election?

A special election was held to fill the seat vacated by Mike Waltz, Trump’s embattled national security adviser who is under fire for apparently inviting a journalist into a Signal group chat where sensitive attack plans were discussed.

The seat should’ve always been in the bag for Republicans, with Trump winning 65% of the vote in 2024. But state Rep. Randy Fine, who was backed by Trump, appeared on track to defeat Democratic challenger Josh Weil by a closer margin in a deep red district rated R+14 by Cook Political Report.

With more than 95% of precincts reporting, Fine was on track to win about 56.5% of votes, about 13 percentage points ahead of Weil.

Last week, Trump withdrew U.S. Rep. Elise Stefanik’s (R., N.Y.) nomination to become his U.N. ambassador, citing the narrow margin Republicans are holding onto in the House.

“We have a slim margin,” Trump told reporters at the White House last week. “We don’t want to take any chances. We don’t want to experiment.”

Race: 1st Congressional District (which includes Pensacola and the westernmost part of the Florida panhandle)

Candidates: Jimmy Patronis (R), Gay Valimont (D)

What was the result: Patronis was declared the winner by the Associated Press at 8:20 p.m. Eastern

Why was there a special election?

Former U.S. Rep. Matt Gaetz gave up his seat when he was nominated by Trump to become the U.S. attorney general. Gaetz withdrew under heavy bipartisan pressure about a week later, but his former seat still needed to be filled.

Republican Jimmy Patronis, Florida’s chief financial officer and a former state representative whom Trump endorsed, was declared the winner Tuesday night in a surprisingly tight race against Gay Valimont, a public middle school teacher.

With more than 95% of precincts reporting, Patronis was running about 14 points ahead of Valimont. That doesn’t seem close, but Trump won the district with 68.1% of the vote in 2024, and the Cook Political Report gives it a uncompetitive R+19 rating.

Gaetz defeated Valimont by more than 30 points in November, 66% to 34%, so at the very least it’s a potential sign of growing unease at Trump and his policies in a district saturated with his supporters.

Race: State Supreme Court

Candidates: Dane County Judge Susan Crawford, Waukesha County Judge Brad Schimel

What was the result: Crawford was declared the winner by the Associated Press at 10:25 p.m. Eastern.

Why was there a special election?

A state Supreme Court race doesn’t normally crack through on the national scale, but the replacement for outgoing Justice Ann Walsh Bradley could have far-reaching consequences, including potentially impacting which party controls Congress in 2026.

There are no party affiliations in the race, but Crawford was backed by Democrats and endorsed by former President Barack Obama, while Schimel had the support of Republicans and Elon Musk, so make of that what you will.

Wisconsin’s state Supreme Court has had a liberal majority since 2023, and Crawford’s victory will maintain that advantage at a time Democrats want to challenge the state’s electoral map, which currently favors Republicans by a 6-2 margin. Republicans currently have a slim five-seat advantage in Congress, and that will likely tighten more in 2026, if history is any guide.

“What’s happening on Tuesday is a vote for which party controls the U.S. House of Representatives,” Musk said at a rally in Green Bay Sunday night, according to the New York Times, which is why he’s endorsed Schimel and thrown $20 million into the race. And just like in Pennsylvania, Musk cut a few $1 million checks to random voters in what was described as a random giveaway, though one recipient happened to be the chairman of the Wisconsin College Republicans.