Is the New Jersey Legislature at risk of flipping from Democratic to Republican?

ATLANTIC CITY — Caren Fitzpatrick, a Democratic candidate for State Senate in New Jersey’s Second Legislative District, looked over the grade school auditorium at the Atlantic City NAACP’s legislative forum on a Tuesday night in October and issued a warning.

“We are at a turning point here in the state of New Jersey, I believe,” she said, flanked on the stage by her opponent, Republican incumbent Sen. Vince Polistina, and the four candidates for State Assembly. “We are just one or two elections away from changing our entire value system.”

Is New Jersey’s Legislature, in which Democrats have controlled both the 40-person Senate and the 80-person Assembly since 2004, at risk of flipping, with all members up for reelection on Nov. 7?

After 2021′s shocker, in which Republican truck driver Edward Durr defeated State Senate President and Democratic powerhouse Steve Sweeney in Gloucester County’s Third District and a closer-than-expected win for Gov. Phil Murphy, nothing in New Jersey politics is taken for granted.

In a handful of contested districts — spanning Atlantic County’s Second, Gloucester’s Third, Camden and Gloucester’s Fourth, Monmouth’s 11th, Hunterdon’s 16th, and Bergen’s 38th — hot-button cultural issues like women’s health and reproductive rights, parental rights in schools, treatment of trans students, wind energy, and climate change are coursing through local races.

And New Jersey’s perennial campaign issue: affordability and the state’s high taxes are again a statewide concern, but one for which Democrats believe they have the upper hand.

A list of candidates for State Senate in all of New Jersey’s Districts can be found here. Assembly candidates can be found here.

New Jersey’s political analysts say there is a chance of the state flipping its legislative majorities, but it remains unlikely.

“Clearly the Republicans have a handful of issues that emerged for them, what they call a strong policy environment,” says Benjamin Dworkin, the director of Rowan’s Institute for Public Policy & Citizenship. “Offshore wind and how schools treat trans students. Gas stoves and electric vehicles. The Democrats are talking about affordability and abortion. It’s less about reaching moderates than getting the base excited. They’re the ones who have to come out.”

Micah Rasmussen, director of Rider University’s Rebovich Institute for New Jersey Politics, says, “Republicans would have to win every contested race to take control of the legislature.”

But the impact of the parental notification of students’ preferred gender identity, which has become a controversial school board policy issue across the country, and related issues remain a “real question mark,” he said.

“If that moves the kind of ground that Republicans think its going to move, we may have unforeseen kinds of impacts,” he said.

The issues are playing out differently in different districts, notes John Froonjian of Stockton University’s Hughes Center for Public Policy, but they are evoking strong emotions.

“It’s like a gumbo election, a stew of multiple strong flavors and ingredients,” he said. “There are multiple strong issues and emotions, some more prominent in some districts than others.”

Money has been flowing to candidates from political action committees, with Democrats looking to drown out turbine and transgender talk with issues of women’s health and abortion rights.

During a recent episode of The Golden Bachelor, an ad ran featuring former State Senate Majority Leader Loretta Weinberg, 88, speaking about being sexually assaulted at age 13 and characterizing Durr, Polistina, and Chris Del Borrello, the Republican candidate in the Fourth District, as “dangerous to women.”

Durr is being vilified for posting on his Facebook page in 2020: “A woman does have a choice. Keep her legs closed.”

The ad was paid for by Brighter Future Forward, a group with ties to South Jersey Democrats, which the New Jersey Globe news site reported had purchase more than a half-million dollars in Philadelphia television time.

Durr is facing a challenge from Democrat John Burzichelli, a former 10-term assemblyman and mayor of Paulsboro.

Another group, the American Representative Majority, tied to South Jersey Democratic power broker George Norcross, has also been pouring money into ads in South Jersey, spending more than $200,000 in the Second, Third, and Fourth Districts, on issues such as property tax relief.

Democrats in general are trying to sway voters with pocketbook issues.

About 1.3 million residents are set to receive up to $1,750 in rebate checks signed by Murphy before the election in the second year of the state’s ANCHOR property-tax-relief program. (In District 2, Polistina and his Republican Assembly counterparts, Don Guardian and Claire Swift, also voted to approve the budget with the tax relief.)

The budget also included the StayNJ program, that, starting in 2026, will offer 50% relief on property taxes to senior homeowners, up to $6,500.

On Thursday, Murphy vetoed the New Jersey Turnpike Authority’s 2024 budget, a decision that delays a planned 3% toll increase. And he headed off another school culture war by criticizing a North Jersey district’s decision to not allow Halloween costumes and celebrations based on “building equity and fostering inclusion,” saying “Seriously? We can’t let kids celebrate Halloween? Give me a break.”

Here’s a primer on the local and contested districts that will determine New Jersey’s legislative majority, now held by Democrats 25-15 in Senate, and by 46-34 in the Assembly. Terms are two years in the Assembly. Senators serve four-year terms, except for the first term of a new decade, which is a two-year term.

Second District: This Atlantic County district has been all-Republican since former Atlantic City Mayor Don Guardian and Margate lawyer Claire Swift toppled Democratic-controlled Assembly seats in 2021. Polistina, a former assemblyman, won after Republican Chris Brown declined to seek reelection.

Polistina’s Democratic opponent, Atlantic County Commissioner Caren Fitzpatrick, has been running on issues of women’s health and reproductive rights, climate change action, and affordability issues in New Jersey. She is a supporter of the wind energy programs. Her running mates are Lisa Bender, a marine biologist, and Alphonso Harrell, a kindergarten teacher in Atlantic City and disabled veteran.

Ads from outside groups have sought to portray Polistina as an ally of Durr and a threat to women’s reproductive rights, which Polistina calls “a fraud.” And these Republican incumbents all voted to approve the state budget, including the tax relief programs.

Third District: Democrats are hoping to erase their 2021 humiliation by regaining control of the Senate seat with Burzichelli. Durr’s comments about women have dominated this race and others in South Jersey. The district covers part of Cumberland and Gloucester Counties and all of Salem County.

In the Assembly race, Republican incumbent Bethanne Patrick and Thomas Tedesco, a committee person in Hopewell Township, Cumberland County, are being challenged by Democrats Heather Simmons, a Rowan administrator, and Dave Bailey Jr., the CEO of Ranch Hope Inc., a children’s mental health services organization.

Fourth District: Democrats hold the seats in this district in Camden and Gloucester Counties, but, says Dworkin, “the Republicans are making a strong effort to pick up seats there. A lot of money is being spent.” The district was reconfigured to lean a little bit more Republican than it did two years ago, and State Sen. Paul Madden is retiring.

Democratic Assemblyman Paul Moriarty, a former KYW investigative journalist, is running for the Senate against Del Borrello, a former Washington Township councilman, and Democrats Dan Hutchison, an attorney, and Cody Miller, an alumni relations director at Rowan, face Republicans Matthew Walker, a former Buena Borough council president, and Amanda Esposito, a public school teacher.

11th District: Considered a key target for Republicans, this split district features Democratic State Sen. Vin Gopal defending his seat against Stephen Dnistrian, a former health-care executive. Republicans hold the Assembly seats. Offshore wind is an issue in this coastal district. And Monmouth County is the home to three school districts being sued by the Murphy administration over their policies requiring parents be notified if support services are provided to transgender students.

16th District: Democratic incumbents Sen. Andrew Zwicker and Assemblyman Roy Freiman and newcomer Mitchelle Drullis are being challenged in Hunterdon County by Republicans Mike Pappas, Ross Traphagen, and Grace Zhang. The Democrats are talking about abortion, and the Republicans are talking about “extreme energy policy.”

38th District: School notification issues are dominating this district in Bergen County, where Democrats are the incumbents but Republicans see some chance to made inroads. Democratic State Sen. Joseph Lagana faces Republican Micheline B. Attieh, a Paramus businesswoman. In the Assembly race, incumbent Democrats Lisa Swain and Chris Tully face Republicans Gail Hornton and Barry C. Wilkes.