Why the Democratic nominee for N.J. governor might only get 20% of the vote

With five weeks until New Jersey’s June 10 primary and voters already returning mail ballots, all six candidates have a path to securing the Democratic nomination.

Only one of two U.S. governor’s races happening this year, the race has become a high-profile barometer of how New Jersey voters are responding to President Donald Trump’s second term so far.

Recent polls have put U.S. Rep. Mikie Sherrill slightly ahead of other candidates, but New Jersey political experts say the uniquely competitive race is still fair game and could have razor-sharp margins. All of the candidates have experience in elected office as a mayor, state senator or member of Congress — and a base of voters.

“Undecided is in first place; Mikie Sherrill is in a distant second, and everybody else is crowded around her in third place,” Patrick Murray, a New Jersey pollster, recently said on PBS.

Experts predict the primary winner could wiggle to victory with just 20% of the vote — or 250,000 ballots.

“Many election cycles recently have taught us to never say never,” Ashley Koning, the director of the Eagleton Center for Public Interest Polling, said. “ … it really comes down to who actually turns out, and by how many.”

Here’s a look at each candidate’s paths to victory.

Newark Mayor Ras Baraka is a progressive who would be the state’s first Black governor. He has particularly embraced working-class voters of color who he argues the Democratic Party has taken for granted. Baraka could energize voters who don‘t always show up to vote but have a record of voting in elections they care about, though some say that’s a gamble.

Baraka argues that Democrats need to stop trying to be “Republican Lite.”

He has the support of progressive organizations like the Working Families Party and various labor unions.

Baraka surprised some politicos by being a second-favorite in certain county party committee votes.

“For far too long we’ve seen that a lot of the Democratic Party’s strategy has been to focus only on the suburbs and focus only on, frankly, mostly white voters,” said Antoinette Miles, the director of the New Jersey Working Families Party. “ … if this electorate in the primary skews more multiracial, more Black and Latino, then I think that presents a pathway to victory.”

Jersey City Mayor Steven Fulop has been running an antiestablishment campaign. Some question the validity of that branding given his past involvement in the Hudson County establishment, but he hasn‘t shied away from publicly criticizing a slew of political actors throughout his campaign.

Fulop has a unique strategy. He’s formed a coalition that could be described as his own antiestablishment establishment of sorts. He recruited down-ballot candidates throughout the state who will run for county and state offices with a shared slogan with him. He’s argued that this strategy has given the opportunity for more people to run, but running candidates against Democratic incumbents has also made him some enemies.

“This may be the first test in which we really see whether or not somebody can put together something that could credibly challenge the power of the county organizations,” said Micah Rasmussen, the director of the Rebovich Institute for New Jersey Politics.

Fulop also uniquely already announced a lieutenant governor candidate, and said he would reappoint Attorney General Matt Platkin.

Fulop checks some of the boxes that other candidates in the race have touted as part of their bios: His parents are immigrants, and he’s a veteran.

Fulop would also be the state’s first Jewish governor.

U.S. Rep. Josh Gottheimer has focused on more moderate and conservative Democrats through a repeated “lower taxes, lower costs,” slogan. Gottheimer was the only New Jersey Democrat in Congress who voted in favor of the Laken Riley Act — which allows undocumented people to be detained based on theft-related arrests — solidifying himself to the right of other candidates in the field on immigration.

With tactics like a statewide diner tour, he’s targeted older voters since they tend to be more moderate. He has also tried to reach blue-collar workers.

Gottheimer hasn‘t gotten as much establishment support as some expected, but he has secured a sought-after endorsement from the Bergen County Democrats — the county has the second highest number of registered Democrats in the state.

Gottheimer, who would also be the state’s first Jewish governor, stands out as the Democratic candidate engaging the Orthodox Jewish community the most, said David Rosenberg, the executive director of the New Jersey Jewish Business Alliance.

“Look at the Jewish papers, you see Josh,” he said.

U.S. Rep. Mikie Sherrill can be described as generally more progressive than Gottheimer and Steve Sweeney but less progressive than Baraka and Fulop. She’s the candidate with the most support from county Democratic Party establishments throughout the state.

With the county line axed from New Jersey ballots, it’s unclear how much these endorsements matter. But even with its diminished power, county committees bring a structured support system made up of engaged party voters.

Sherrill said she’s found success building broad coalitions, though given her background as a veteran and mother, she said she’s had particular resonance with suburban women and veterans.

“There is still this sense from women who want to see a woman elected to office, and the fact that she is a veteran gives her some of that credit with some men who have a lot of respect for her military background” said Patricia Campos-Medina, a New Jersey progressive activist who is advising Sherrill on engaging with Latino voters.

Sean Spiller is the president of the New Jersey Education Association, the state’s largest teachers union with about 200,000 members. His campaign is unique because of how heavily he relies on a multimillion dollar super PAC called Working New Jersey that’s largely funded with union dues from public schoolteachers.

But despite the group’s backing, Spiller failed to garner enough individual donations to qualify for public matching funds and the debate stage. He was the only candidate in the Democratic field who didn‘t hit the benchmark.

“I think that’s going to send a very strong signal to any voter who‘s paying attention that he sort of faded into the background,” Rasmussen said. “ … Voters are going to wonder where he is, or what happened.”

Spiller, an immigrant from Jamaica who served one term as Montclair mayor, would also be the Garden State’s first Black governor.

Critics argue that using teachers union dues to support his campaign isn‘t the best look, but his supporters say he can champion public education and that the union has backed candidates before.

The question is whether the barrage of ads from Working New Jersey has resonated with enough voters, as well as whether enough teachers in the state show up for him. Spiller also has some opportunities to pick up voters who have developed grudges against other candidates in the field, like Sweeney, who has a bumpy past with the NJEA.

Sweeney is the only candidate from South Jersey — and has the establishment support to show for it — giving him a unique geographical base since the northern New Jersey vote is split five ways.

“I would argue that the primary-minded South Jersey voters are some of the most organized primary Democrats in the state,” Rasmussen said.

Sweeney, an iron union leader, has positioned himself as a more moderate candidate, coming out against New Jersey’s status as a sanctuary state. He has catered messaging to blue-collar workers, seniors, and parents of children with disabilities. Sweeney has credited his interest in public office to the birth of his daughter Lauren, now 32, who has Down syndrome.

Sweeney was the longest serving state Senate president, a powerful position where he became deeply familiar with New Jersey policy. While Sweeney’s knowledge of the state sets him apart, some view him as running a nostalgia campaign representing old Jersey politics at a time when there’s a hunger for something new. Sweeney was ousted from his long-held seat in 2021 by Ed Durr, a Republican truck driver who was little known at the time.