What Trump’s indictment could mean for his 2024 presidential campaign in Pennsylvania

Donald Trump has divided Pennsylvania for years. The leaked news of his indictment was no different.

Pennsylvania Republican allies rallied behind him. Democrats applauded the prosecution as a sign of justice in motion. And both sides speculated what it could mean for his 2024 presidential campaign.

“Like the two previous impeachments, this sham is nothing more than an outrageous abuse of power,” said U.S. Rep. Guy Reschenthaler (R., Pa.).

“An immoral man, corrupt citizen, and twice-impeached former president was indicted yesterday, proving that no one should be above the law,” said U.S. Rep Madeleine Dean (D., Pa.).

Typically, political scandal is something candidates hope to avoid when running for office. But Trump is far from typical and both allies and critics said on Friday that the indictment could either galvanize Republican voters who see the prosecution as overtly political or offer another reason to those looking for a party reboot to abandon the scandal-prone former president.

“The upside of this for former President Trump is people will see he’s again being persecuted and come to his defense,” said Sam DeMarco, who heads the Republican Party in Allegheny County. “The downside is that many other independents or swing voters will just see this as more drama when they’re looking for stability.”

» READ MORE: Live updates: Donald Trump expected to surrender next week after indictment

Trump was indicted by a Manhattan grand jury on charges related to a 2016 hush money payment to adult film star Stormy Daniels, though the exact charges are not yet known. It’s the first time in U.S. history a former president has been indicted for a crime. He has denied wrongdoing and said in a statement Thursday that he was “completely innocent.” He’s expected to surrender Tuesday.

This week might be the beginning of a longer saga. Trump is facing several different investigations, including a federal probe of his actions to challenge the 2020 election and his handling of classified information after he left office. That could set up the potential for a summer of various debates, and possibly additional charges.

However, at a Republican conference Friday in Harrisburg, the indictment and the prosecutor behind it was often the butt of a joke: ”Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg, he seems to have reduced crime in New York City to the point that the biggest thing he has left to prosecute is someone saying someone else paid off an adult film star,” Stacy Garrity, the state treasurer, said jokingly. “It’s so good to know there are no more murders, no more robberies, no more muggings in Manhattan.”

The indictment comes on the heels of a 2022 midterm election in Pennsylvania where Trump-aligned State Sen. Doug Mastriano lost the governor’s race by a large margin, prompting members of the state GOP to soften their support for the former president, skeptical of his ability to deliver votes in a key state. After the midterms, several influential Republicans in the state expressed worry that while Trump has a fervent base, he is also an ideal foil for Democrats. Trump’s bombastic style also may have repelled some suburban swing voters away from the GOP.

Pat Poprik, GOP chair in Bucks County, thinks the indictment will help Trump reclaim some of that wavering support.

“There are some people who go for underdogs and rally around when people are picked on,” Poprik said. “I think this crossed the line. This is a criminal charge over something so weak. I think people are going to see this and think, ’This is just too much.’ ”

Support for Trump’s presidential bid rose in the last week as news bubbled of a possible indictment. And Republicans are deeply skeptical of investigations into Trump. A recent Reuters poll showed 75% of Republicans believe he is being unfairly persecuted through “politically motivated investigations.”

Matt Brouillette, the head of Commonwealth Partners, an influential conservative group in the state, said he thinks the prosecution fits perfectly into Trump’s ongoing narrative that there’s a witch hunt against him, which could help Trump in a 2024 primary in Pennsylvania.

“Donald Trump has a strong plurality of support in the Republican base and these actions only harden that support as well as rallying other Republicans who recognize this is a purely political prosecution,” Brouillette said.

“In a Trumpian kind of way, he probably welcomes this kind of attention.”

» READ MORE: Donald Trump was just indicted. Here’s what happens next

Brouillette, who has called on Trump to retire from the party and indicated early interest in Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, took it one step further. He said he thinks the prosecution is politically motivated because Democrats think it could help Trump win the nomination, which is “ultimately what Democrats want.”

But a criminal prosecution, even if unpopular with the GOP base, could still hurt Trump as a candidate. And potential candidates for other top spots toed the line on how hard they should come down in defense of the former president.

“We haven’t seen what the indictment is, but I think it’s obvious this is a highly politicized attack on the former president,” said Dave McCormick, a former financier and U.S. Senate candidate expected to run again in 2024.

DeMarco predicted while most Republicans might be unified in thinking the case is an overreach, they won’t let it affect who they think should run the country.

“I think folks can believe that this is wrong without also believing that President Trump is the best messenger for the Republican Party in 2024,” DeMarco said.

The most formidable potential GOP opponent to Trump is DeSantis, who will be in Pennsylvania on Saturday, headlining the Pennsylvania Leadership Conference in Harrisburg as he explores whether to run for president. It will be a moment to see what kind of response DeSantis gets in a different swing state where Trump had a huge following in 2016.

At the GOP conference on Friday, several hundred conservatives gathered to discuss strategy ahead of elections this year and next, but few mentioned Trump.

Several speakers alluded to Trump’s indictment, but few directly addressed it.

”It’s a very solemn day in the history of America, isn’t it?” said State Rep. Stephanie Borowicz (R., Clinton) to start the conference Friday morning.

”Anything in the news today?” asked Holly Love, a conservative radio host on WHP-AM (580).

Democrats in Pennsylvania have pushed back on Republicans who frame the case as a political witch hunt, and have stressed due process.

“For a guy who ran a campaign saying he wanted to bring back law and order, this is in fact law and order,” State Rep. Malcolm Kenyatta (D., Philadelphia) said Friday.

“I think this is actually a pretty sobering moment for the country, but I think it’s an important moment for the country that we never say that, because you’re lucky enough to be in the White House that crimes you committed before that job and after or during that job, can’t be prosecuted,” Kenyatta said.

» READ MORE: Who’s who in the Manhattan DA’s Donald Trump indictment

J.J. Abbott, a Democratic strategist in the state, criticized the impetus of many Republicans to dismiss the case before the grand jury findings are even revealed.

“It’s indicative of a Republican Party that seems to have a real disconnect between what they say — which is be tough on crime and hold people accountable — but then when President Trump is supposedly about to be held accountable for things he did wrong, it’s improper,” Abbott said.

U.S. Rep. Dwight Evans (D., Philadelphia) invoked the Founding Fathers.

“Benjamin Franklin famously said in Philadelphia that we have ‘a republic, if you can keep it,’ ” he said. “And ensuring that accountability applies to a former president is important for keeping our republic and the rule of law.”

U.S. Rep. Chrissy Houlahan (D., Chester) said, “No person is above the law and all people are innocent until proven guilty as guaranteed by the Constitution.

“President Trump is no exception.”