Here’s what we’re watching for in Gov. Josh Shapiro’s first budget proposal

Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro will unveil his first budget proposal Tuesday, his first test to see how far his bipartisan efforts will go.

Shapiro, a Democrat, cruised to victory in November, attracting wide support in a deeply divided state. He’s said he hopes to gain bipartisan backing for his budget pitch, which he’ll deliver to a joint session of the state House and Senate. He’ll then have to negotiate with lawmakers to pass a spending plan likely topping $40 billion by the end of June.

Here’s what to know.

Shapiro has only released a few of the initiatives he’ll be proposing for the next fiscal year. But he has said he’ll follow through on his campaign promises of good schools, safe communities, and an economy that “gives people a shot and lifts them up.”

“You’re going to see the things I campaigned on come to life in this budget,” Shapiro told The Inquirer in an interview last month.

There will be no tax increases included in the budget proposal, Shapiro told KDKA-FM in Pittsburgh last week.

Shapiro also told KDKA that his budget address will include a three-year tax credit program for up to $2,500 per year for new nurses, police officers, and teachers who get certified in the state. The incentive would cost approximately $25 million and would help Pennsylvania recruit for the critically low-staffed public services.

» READ MORE: Takeaways from Gov. Josh Shapiro's first month on the job.

Shapiro has said he’ll propose increased funding for school counselors and investments in child care services.

He will not be proposing a “fix” to the state’s school funding mechanisms, he told The Inquirer. He said it will take years to decide on a new system and implement it after a court found the current system unconstitutional.

We’ll be looking for mentions of school choice and environmental regulations — two issues where Shapiro has tacked away from traditional liberal views and broken from his predecessor and fellow Democrat, former Gov. Tom Wolf.

Shapiro expressed interest in school-choice programs on the campaign trail, and said he believes that backing school choice won’t harm public schools.

Many Democrats in Harrisburg, including Wolf, have long opposed any school choice programs. They cite fears that funneling state funding to private and charter schools would pull too much money away from already struggling public schools.

Shapiro has also questioned whether the state should stay in the Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative, a multistate pledge that requires fossil fuel plants to buy allowances in order to emit carbon dioxide. We’ll be watching to see if Shapiro has any proposal that would meet all of his wants: keep jobs and affordable energy prices while still reducing the state’s carbon emissions.

We’ll be watching for whether Shapiro tries to tap into the state’s $6.7 billion surplus and record-high $5 billion “rainy day” fund. The state’s overflowing coffers can be mostly credited to billions in federal aid and infrastructure funding deposited during the COVID-19 pandemic. However, state spending is projected to increase every year, setting the state up to fall off a fiscal cliff.

Despite the positive financial outlook for this year’s budget, the state’s Independent Fiscal Office projects that spending will outpace revenue starting in the 2023-24 budget year, and that the gap will grow after that.

Asked about the fiscal cliff, Shapiro told The Inquirer that he has a “long track record” of fiscal responsibility that goes back to his days as a Montgomery County commissioner, when he tackled a budget deficit. His budget secretary, Uri Monson, previously served as the chief financial officer for Montgomery County as well as for Philadelphia schools.

Wolf and the GOP-controlled General Assembly set Shapiro up with a “great opportunity,” the governor said.

“[It] gives us an opportunity right now to have real funding available and make critical investments,” Shapiro added. “We also have to be cognizant of what life looks like in three, four, five and six years down the road, so you’ll see responsible investing on our part.”

Governors’ budget proposals outline their top priorities and values.

Next, lawmakers will take Shapiro’s budget proposal and begin hearings and negotiations. They must pass a balanced budget by June 30 and send it to Shapiro for his signature.

For his first budget in 2015 and facing a massive budget deficit, Wolf couldn’t reach an agreement with lawmakers, resulting in a nine-month impasse before he finally made a deal with the GOP-controlled General Assembly.

Shapiro has legislative experience that Wolf did not. But he could still face challenging negotiations, as Republicans control the Senate and Democrats hold a razor-thin majority in the state House.