Low voter turnout in Tuesday’s primary is a warning sign to some Philly Democrats

Voter turnout in the city appeared to fall to one of its lowest points in a decade on Tuesday as District Attorney Larry Krasner coasted to a primary victory against former Municipal Court Judge Pat Dugan.

With 99% of divisions reporting and some ballots left to count, turnout figures showed just 16.5% of registered voters cast ballots, a figure that was expected to rise to around 17% when all votes are counted.

That’s down from the 21% who turned out in 2021, the last time a district attorney primary race was at the top of the ballot. Turnout was also 17% in 2017, when Krasner won his first primary, according to the city commissioners. Philadelphia’s low point for turnout in recent history came in 2013, when just 9% of registered voters cast a ballot.

Turnout is never expected to be high immediately following a presidential election, and district attorney races tend not to draw droves of voters. Still, the low turnout figure is alarming to some Democrats in the Democratic-dominated city, who are hoping to reset after a dip in support in the city contributed to statewide fall losses.

“This is a massive drop-off that to me goes well beyond like classic Philadelphia not giving a s—,” said Kellan White, vice president of campaigns, policy, and strategy at Groundwork Strategies. “It’s gone well beyond not paying attention.”

City Democratic Party chair Bob Brady was far less concerned.

“Turnout doesn’t bother me, only bothers me [that] we win,” Brady said Wednesday of the meager numbers.

“It wasn’t a juicy election,” Brady said. “There was only a DA fight. They don’t get juiced up with the judges; half don’t know who they are.”

Asked what the party was doing to reconnect with its base, Brady said a voter-registration drive is in the works.

But in recent years, Philadelphia’s sagging turnout has become an annual data point of concern for Democrats. It has raised alarms for Democrats in the swing state as Republicans seek to capitalize and improve their margins here, and it has frustrated election officials and civic engagement groups regardless of party affiliation.

Lauren Cristella, president of the Philly-based civic engagement group Committee of Seventy, said Tuesday’s results showed a worsening problem in Philly. The base of voters who show up in every election no matter what is shrinking. It has been, she said, since voter turnout hit a high-water mark in 2020.

“All politics is national. People are losing faith in our institutions,” Cristella said. “The overwhelming perception is that the systems are broken and their votes don’t matter.”

In total, 174,945 ballots had been cast and counted as of Friday. There are a little more than 1 million registered voters in the city.

“There really needs to be a comprehensive approach to interacting with voters, understanding why they aren’t turning out in a municipal cycle, and working to address any concerns they have,” said City Commissioner Seth Bluestein, the sole Republican on the panel that oversees Philly elections.

Republicans did not mount a candidate for district attorney this year. While the party did have a candidate in 2021, there was not a competitive primary for the job.

Turnout drops were particularly striking in the Bridesburg and Mayfair neighborhoods in Northeast Philadelphia, where around 40% fewer voters went to the polls this year than in 2021.

The mail ballot return rate for the city was about 68%, short of the typical return rate statewide of about 80%. The low return came after ballots went out later than usual — leaving officials concerned that several voters were unable to return their ballot in time for it to be counted.

Adjoining wards, the 7th and 33rd in Juniata, had turnout at or below 5%. In 12 wards, turnout was below 10%. White, who worked on Vice President Kamala Harris’ presidential campaign in Philadelphia and who also ran former Controller Rebecca Rhynhart’s mayoral bid in 2023, noted that even typically dominant wards struggled to hit 30% turnout in this election. Only the 9th and 22nd Wards, both in the Northwest, had passed 30% turnout as of Wednesday.

“We used to be able to say we can point to 10 wards that did really well. No one did well this time,” White said. “We need to have a real conversation about the parts of the city that have horrible turnout and what else is happening in those parts of the city that contribute to that.”

He called Brady’s dismissal of the turnout numbers unhelpful. “We’re all losing right now, and most of us don’t want to admit we’re losing because it’s an uncomfortable conversation.”

As polling figures showed Krasner pulling ahead of Dugan, voters may have been even less inclined to show up, believing that the race was not competitive. In 2021, when former prosecutor Carlos Vega ran against Krasner, Vega tapped into rising frustrations surrounding Kensington.

Omar Sabir, a Democrat who chairs the Philadelphia City Commissioners, said Dugan did not seem to drive the same enthusiasm.

“The majority of Philadelphians are African American, Latino, and Asian, so having a Carlos Vega in a race, that sort of excited the base,” Sabir said. “Most people typically vote for somebody you can relate to, so when you have minorities in the race, you’re probably going to see increased voter turnout.”

Sabir said he is planning significant work over the summer to engage with voters who are not turning out — noting that low turnout could translate to fewer resources for the city if state and federal officials do not see a need to appeal to its voters.

But turning the tide on turnout may take work from politicians on both sides of the aisle and better civic education so voters understand what they are voting for, Cristella said.

“Issues that affect so many people, like letting SEPTA fail or whatever’s coming down the pike with the budget crisis over the summer, that’s all going to play into whether people show up,” she said. “We’re all going to sink or swim together, on both sides of the aisle, and it’s time to start delivering basic services for Pennsylvanians so they can rebuild their trust in institutions.”