Why Bob Casey and Dave McCormick are talking about China as the Senate race heats up

The opening act of Pennsylvania’s U.S. Senate race is all about China.

As Republican Dave McCormick looks to unseat Democratic Sen. Bob Casey next year, both have been talking a lot about China and the threat they say the superpower poses to national and state economic interests.

The issue will be a central theme in a critical race in 2024 that could determine control of the U.S. Senate and who is in a position to push international policy that impacts Pennsylvania on issues like manufacturing jobs, the fentanyl crisis, and national security.

Democrats see China as a weakness for McCormick, who as CEO of Bridgewater Associates, oversaw huge increases in investments in companies in the communist nation and faced relentless attacks on the subject in his unsuccessful race in 2022. They hope to present a contrast with Casey, who has backed several tough-on-China bills over three terms in Congress and used the issue to appeal to voters in areas that have lost jobs overseas.

“The rise of China over the last generation and even more recently didn’t just happen because of actions taken by the Chinese Communist Party...” Casey said. “A lot of that rise was funded by corporate America and I think what we face now is a circumstance where China’s not simply a competitor, I would argue that China is really an economic adversary.”

McCormick has gone on the offensive this time, wary of again getting painted as a wealthy globalist. He’s attempting to reclaim the narrative, arguing that as a businessman who worked with Chinese companies, he is best positioned to know how to decouple the two nations’ interests.

“Bob Casey talks a big game,” McCormick said in a statement. “But he’s been in Washington for 17 years and hasn’t done zip to protect Pennsylvanians and their jobs from the Chinese Communist Party. The commonwealth needs a Senator who has seen the way the Chinese work up close: someone who has learned things the hard way and knows exactly the mistakes that American businesses and American government officials have made in China.”

Some surveys show voters are more worried about threats posed by China than at any point since 1990 — and connect China’s economic power to lost jobs, as well as concerns over its military power and policies on human rights. But it’s unclear if it will be an issue that motivates Pennsylvanians, who tend to be more driven by domestic issues, in the critical Senate race.

Democrats are already putting McCormick’s ties to China front and center. The state Democratic Party has blasted out releases noting that Bridgewater’s investments in China grew 108,000% while McCormick was CEO (from $1.6 million in 2017 to $1.77 billion in the final quarter of 2021) and noting that at least one company had ties to human rights abuses in the northwestern region of Xinjiang and another had ties to the Chinese military.

Meanwhile, Casey has touted his own substantial legislative record on China, which includes a recent bill that requires investors to notify the Treasury Department when they invest in Chinese companies in key sectors like artificial intelligence.

McCormick put out a statement commending the legislation — a rarity in a polarized Senate race — and then saying Casey should go a step further by cutting off U.S. investment in technologies related to national security. Casey has also indicated he supports going further on the issue by allowing the U.S. “authority to prohibit corporations from selling our national security secrets and manufacturing power to our adversaries.”

As voters remain down on the economy, Casey has tried to deflect fault away from the federal government to underlying causes like corporate greed and Chinese economic influence.

“Anything that comes up with China is really part of a bigger picture,” said Guy Ciarrocchi, a former GOP nominee for Congress. “The Democratic Party has decided inflation is a real problem and the economy is not doing well and they need to deal with it.”

For Casey, drawing a connection between China and the loss of jobs or economic woes could be especially helpful in parts of the state that have been hit hard by those losses.

“It’s a big issue especially with more blue-collar voters,” Democratic strategist Mike Mikus said. “ It has less to do with foreign policy and a lot more to do with economics and who is standing up for working people.”

Casey echoed that talking point saying he thinks Pennsylvanians, “understand the threat that China poses sometimes better than the guys on Wall Street.”

McCormick has taken a more direct approach to talking about China than he did in his primary run in 2022. His book Superpower in Peril, released in March, lays out strategies for confronting China and ensuring U.S. technological supremacy.

McCormick is arguing the very expertise Democrats are blasting him for positions him to take on issues related to China and U.S. interests. Prior to Bridgewater, McCormick was undersecretary for international affairs under George W. Bush.

“We need to stop investing in China, and I know something about investing, put restrictions on portfolio investment or direct investment that aids the CCP or the Chinese military,” McCormick said on Hugh Hewitt’s podcast earlier this year.

McCormick also testified at a House select committee on China in September that while he was CEO of Bridgewater, he held “deep reservations” about doing business with the country.

Having business experience could help McCormick, Ciarrocchi argued, as could a perspective from outside of Washington. “Any voter whose gonna dismiss him because he’s a businessman who ran companies and did business with China — 95% of those people were never gonna vote for him anyway,” Ciarrocchi said.

And McCormick will likely try to associate Casey with Biden, whom Republicans have portrayed as weak on China and whom voters distrust on the economy, according to recent polls.

“Dave can’t run away from his past (and he shouldn’t),” said Matt Brouillette, a veteran conservative activist. “But voters want candidates to talk about what matters most to them, and Dave can speak directly to how Bob and his party’s policies have harmed them and their families far more than China has.”

While foreign policy doesn’t tend to be what drives people to the polls, China’s influence dovetails with many domestic topics that do motivate voters. Casey and McCormick can draw a line from factory relocations overseas to manufacturing job losses in the Northeast; from the country’s production of fentanyl to the drug crisis in Philadelphia and from foreign companies price-gouging to inflation.

For both candidates, appearing tough on China helps build a personal narrative of standing up for Pennsylvanians.

Still, more than a year out from the general election, few strategists see it as the decisive issue in the race even if it’s one that will likely get a lot of air time.

“The China issue will be a wash because people complain about China and then they go to Target and buy the cheapest coasters,” Republican consultant Chris Nicholas said.

“It’s another way of saying, ‘McCormick bad,’” Democratic consultant Neil Oxman said. “But when you look at exit polls 50 weeks from tomorrow and people answer why did you vote for or against Casey, China will not be in the top five reasons.”