NBA draft lottery primer: What’s at stake for the Sixers, and how the drawing actually works

It has been eight years since the 76ers were part of the NBA’s draft lottery, which determines the order of the top 14 selections.

That is the result of their dreadful, injury-riddled 2024-25 season. The Sixers spent their final weeks “tanking” — or making winning less of a priority by resting injured players and veterans, and letting younger players get the bulk of the minutes — in an effort to increase those lottery odds. The plan largely succeeded, as the Sixers finished with the NBA’s fifth-worst record at 24-58.

Here is a refresher on how the draft lottery works:

May 12, in Chicago. Television coverage will begin at 7 p.m. on ESPN.

The 14 teams that did not make the playoffs are put into a lottery — yes, with actual pingpong balls! — to determine the top four selections in the draft.

For the most part, the worse a team’s regular-season record, the greater its odds to land the No. 1 pick (or selections two through four). Since 2019, however, the NBA has flattened the odds, giving the teams with the three worst records the same 14% chance of landing the top pick. That change was an attempt to discourage tanking, by giving participating teams with better records a notably higher chance of moving up in the lottery. The team with the worst regular-season record, however, cannot be slotted lower than fifth.

The actual lottery drawing occurs in a separate room ahead of the reveal on live television. A small collection of NBA officials, team representatives, media, and officials from Ernst & Young (which oversees the process) will witness the drawing, but will be prohibited from using communication devices or leaving that room until the results are publicly shared.

Fourteen pingpong balls, with numbers ranging from 1 to 14, are placed in the lottery machine. Before the drawing begins, each team is assigned a collection of combinations featuring four of those 14 numbers (there are 1,001 possible combinations). The team with the first four-number combination drawn receives the No. 1 pick, and so on, until the fourth pick has been determined. If the same team comes up twice, that combination will be discarded and numbers will be redrawn.

The remaining teams will pick fifth through 14th, in order from worst regular-season record to best.

After the combinations are drawn, and the remaining order determined, envelopes are stuffed and sealed, then transported to the studio for the broadcast. Mark Tatum, the NBA’s deputy commissioner and chief operating officer, will reveal the order from 14 to 1, with another representative from each team sitting on stage.

The Sixers’ 2025 first-round pick is “top-six protected,” because it is an asset that was part of a 2020 trade with the Oklahoma City Thunder. That means that, if the Sixers land at sixth or higher in the lottery, they will keep the pick. If it lands at seventh or lower, it will go to the Thunder.

» READ MORE: Daryl Morey has no regrets about the Al Horford trade that could cost the Sixers a first-rounder

So, the stakes are massive. Keeping the pick would be a silver lining to come out of this lost season, while losing it would make it even more of a flop. If the Sixers keep the pick, they could then use that selection to select a prospect in the draft, or include it as part of a new trade.

The most important Sixers number to remember is 64%. Those are the odds that they land in the top six and keep their selection. They have a 10.5% chance of winning the lottery and the No. 1 pick.

Here are the other teams’ odds to land the top pick:

Utah Jazz: 14%

Washington Wizards: 14%

Charlotte Hornets: 14%

New Orleans Pelicans: 12%

Brooklyn Nets: 9%

Toronto Raptors: 7.5%

San Antonio Spurs: 6%

Phoenix Suns (pick traded to Houston Rockets via Brooklyn Nets): 3.8%

Portland Trail Blazers: 3.7%

Dallas Mavericks: 1.8%

Chicago Bulls: 1.7%

Sacramento Kings: 0.8%

Atlanta Hawks (pick traded to San Antonio Spurs): 0.7%

This year’s draft lottery is particularly juicy because of the top prospect available: Cooper Flagg.

Flagg, a 6-foot-9 forward out of Duke, is considered a franchise-changer because of his diverse and refined skill set on both ends of the floor, his NBA-ready frame, and his natural feel for the game.

But even after Flagg, evaluators rate this draft class as rich in talent and potential. Others who could be selected in the top six include:

Dylan Harper, Rutgers guard

Ace Bailey, Rutgers wing

V.J. Edgecombe, Baylor guard

Tre Johnson, Texas wing

Kon Knueppel, Duke wing

Khaman Maluach, Duke center

Kasparas Jakucionis, Illinois guard

Derik Queen, Maryland big man

Jeremiah Fears, Oklahoma guard

Collin Murray-Boyles, South Carolina wing

Sixers president of basketball operations Daryl Morey said at his April 13 end-of-season news conference that the front office would select the best prospect available, regardless of position.

The Sixers’ draft lottery positioning naturally was most buzzworthy during The Process years, when acquiring high picks was the primary objective.

» READ MORE: Sixers to get a better idea of draft, free agency options in NBA lottery

In 2010, the lottery moved the Sixers up from sixth to second, when they selected Evan Turner. In 2014, they moved down from second to third and took Joel Embiid. Their positioning was unchanged by the lottery in 2016, when they drafted Ben Simmons first, and in 2015, when they took Jahlil Okafor third. These drawings were all before the lottery odds were flattened.

In the 2017 lottery, the Sixers also moved down one spot, to fifth … before then making a trade to move up to the top spot and select Markelle Fultz.

Since the league flattened the lottery odds, a team with the 14% chance to get the top pick has received it in four of the six years. All four of those players — the San Antonio Spurs’ Victor Wembanyama (2023), Orlando Magic’s Paolo Banchero (2022), Detroit Pistons’ Cade Cunningham (2021), and Minnesota Timberwolves’ Anthony Edwards (2020) — have been an All-Star at least once in their careers.

Two teams have unexpectedly shot up to the top spot during the flattened-odds era. The Pelicans, who had a 6% chance at the No. 1 pick in 2019, took Zion Williamson. And last year, the Hawks had a 3% chance of winning the lottery, and used it to select Zachharie Risacher.

June 25-26, in Brooklyn.