Why is Quentin Grimes’ restricted free agency taking so long? We asked a salary-cap expert.
To get more insight on why this portion of the offseason is dragging — and if the Sixers should be worried — The Inquirer sought the insight of salary-cap and CBA expert Keith Smith.
We are three weeks into NBA free agency, and Quentin Grimes’ situation remains unresolved.
Ditto for the NBA’s other prominent restricted free agents: Jonathan Kuminga (Warriors), Josh Giddey (Bulls), and Cam Thomas (Nets).
To get more insight on why this portion of the offseason is dragging — and if the 76ers should be worried about it ending poorly — The Inquirer sought the insight of Keith Smith, who lends his salary-cap and collective bargaining agreement expertise to Spotrac, the NBA Front Office podcast, and The Basketball Bulletin.
This interview is lightly edited for clarity.
Q: Why is restricted free agency essentially at a standstill right now? How much is the new CBA affecting this aspect of roster-building?
A: Restricted free agency has always been tough on players. That’s by design. But this year has been even rougher than usual. Only the Brooklyn Nets had meaningful cap space; the Milwaukee Bucks and Memphis Grizzlies manufactured cap space, but for very specific purposes. That’s made it nearly impossible for a restricted free agent to get even so much as an offer sheet.
The impact of the new CBA is that because so many moves can now hard-cap a team at the first or second apron, teams are reluctant to lock into new contracts or to use various other mechanisms for acquiring players because of the potential issues with the aprons.
Q: Which teams could theoretically still offer Grimes (or any restricted free agent)? Brooklyn felt like the most likely team before it traded for Michael Porter Jr.
A: It’s pretty much Brooklyn at this point. Utah could get to cap space, but that would mean getting rid of a rather large traded player exception. That seems unlikely. And to this point, the Nets don’t seem overly likely to use their remaining cap space to chase restricted free agents.
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Q: Daryl Morey has said on the record that a reason the Sixers could not re-sign Guerschon Yabusele is because it would curtail their ability to retain/match Grimes. Do you agree with that, based on the deal Yabusele got with the New York Knicks and the type of deal you envision Grimes ultimately receiving?
A: That was definitely a factor. Because Philadelphia only had non-Bird rights for Yabusele, who was coming off a minimum deal, they couldn’t offer him much using those free agent rights. That meant they would have had to use the non-taxpayer or taxpayer midlevel exception. Using the former would have hard-capped the Sixers at the first apron, while the latter would have meant a second-apron hard cap.
If a team with cap space had then come in with an offer sheet that would have taken the Sixers over either of those hard caps, they would have been forced to let the player go, barring a move to create enough space under that hard cap.
Q: How much are the other restricted free agents all affecting one another? Is a domino effect possible, where once one player agrees to a new deal that the others rapidly follow? Or should they all be considered individualized situations?
A: I think they are impacting each other in the first sense that you laid out. One of them could set the market for the others. I don’t think they are impacting each other in the sense that a team could sign one of them and that changes things as far as teams chasing the others. I do think it’s kind of a situation where Giddey and Kuminga are a bit linked, as they are likely to get bigger deals. And Grimes and Thomas are linked, as they are guards who are likely to get similarly sized contracts.
Q: How long could this Grimes situation continue to linger? Should Sixers fans worry about him taking the qualifying offer instead?
A: It might go for a while. Generally, teams usually give in and will give a guy a bit more, while the player comes down a bit and takes a bit less. They sort of meet in the middle. But in this situation, because of the restricted status, there’s little reason for Philadelphia to give in. It’s unlikely Grimes will go anywhere else or that their hand will be forced via an offer sheet.
I usually think that by mid-August, the player’s chances of signing the qualifying offer go way up. Most guys want a deal done in advance of getting back into the local market in September for informal workouts, scrimmages, et cetera. As for Grimes, I think every day that goes by, there’s a better chance of signing the qualifying offer and betting on having a better deal waiting until unrestricted free agency next offseason.
Q: What are we missing that would help fans understand all of this better?
A: I think one important thing to note is that if Grimes does sign the qualifying offer, he gets a one-year no-trade clause. That’s because he’ll lose his Bird rights if he’s traded while playing on that qualifying offer. Also, somewhere between seven and 10 teams could have significant cap space next summer, which makes free agency an enticing path for some guys.