It’s surprising that Kai Wagner is still with the Union, but it also isn’t

For all that has gone right with the Union lately, it’s important to point out a cloud floating off in the distance.

At some point, Kai Wagner is going to move on. It could be this summer, or it could be after the season. We won’t know for sure until Europe’s transfer deadline passes on Sept. 1.

Wagner’s departure has been in the cards for a while. In fact, it easily could already have happened. In November 2020, word got out that he had talked with clubs in Germany and England, including the Premier League’s West Ham United.

Two months later, the Union signed him to a contract extension through this year with a team-held option for 2023. But that was meant as much to extend his rights for a sale as it was for him to actually play here.

Last December, Wagner told soccer news and data website Transfermarkt that he still wanted to go back to Europe. No one was surprised. A month later, England’s Brentford and Fulham expressed interest just before the winter transfer window closed, but the talks came to nothing.

This past February, Wagner told The Inquirer that he was happy to stay in Philadelphia until the time was right. That was polite, and there’s no reason to doubt his sincerity. But it was widely assumed that the time would come this summer. When the Union re-signed Matt Real and promoted major prospect Anton Sorenson to the MLS ranks before this season, it looked like laying more groundwork.

» READ MORE: What to know about Anton Sorenson

The rumor mill started churning again as soon as the summer transfer window opened. In late May, Germany’s Sky TV put three potential destinations on the table: Germany’s Hertha Berlin and Stuttgart, whose manager, Pellegrino Matarrazzo, is a New Jersey native; and England’s Leeds United, whose manager, Jesse Marsch, is a close friend of Union manager Jim Curtin. The scouting report would have been easy and quite a sight combined with Leeds swooping for Brenden Aaronson.

All that was enough to conclude that eventually, some team would write a big enough check to pry Wagner away. Now it’s late July. Europe’s big leagues kick off in the first week of August, and most teams already have done their shopping.

“Selfishly, I want him here for the rest of the season, to win and push and try to make a run, as crazy as it sounds, at a Supporters’ Shield,” Curtin said this week, and it’s not too crazy right now. The Union are three points back of Los Angeles FC for MLS’ best record with one more game played, and they have a pretty favorable remaining schedule.

But Curtin knows the truth and has been preparing all year for Wagner’s departure.

“We’ll see what happens — we’re prepared either way,” Curtin said. “If he does go, Matt Real has been excellent for us as well in training every day, has gotten some Union II minutes, and you obviously have Anton behind Matt. … If the money’s right, I think Ernst [Tanner] would obviously entertain it.”

» READ MORE: Brenden Aaronson joins the Premier League’s Leeds United for $30 million, including $5 million for the Union

We’re all used by now to teams staying off the record until deals are done. But it’s no secret that in much of Europe, the transfer market has dried up, and it’s especially true in Germany.

Transfermarkt’s database shows that Bundesliga teams spent a combined $1.05 billion on signings for the 2019-20 season — the summer of 2019 and the winter of 2019-20. Then the pandemic hit, forcing postpomenents and months of games with limited crowds.

Deprived of so much revenue, transfer spending for the 2020-21 season plummeted by more than half — to a combined $408.38 million. It rebounded to $535.86 million last summer, and this summer’s total stands at $410.77 million so far.

Germany’s superpowers Bayern Munich and Borussia Dortmund still are spending big, fueled by their big fan bases and Champions League revenue. But as of now, no other Bundesliga team has spent more than $20 million on a player this summer. Only four others have spent more than $10 million on one deal, and only three beyond those have spent more than $5 million.

That’s nine teams total, which is half the league.

If you wouldn’t sell Major League Soccer’s best left back for less than $5 million, then you start to get the idea.

» READ MORE: The Union’s Andre Blake and Kai Wagner are on this year’s MLS All-Star team

Of course, a lot of Philadelphia sports fans who are new to soccer wouldn’t sell him in the first place. But this is how soccer works, for the Union, MLS, and pretty much every team in the world.

England’s Manchester City, whose Emirati owners don’t need anybody’s money, banked nearly $120 million by selling Raheem Sterling to Chelsea and Gabriel Jesus to Arsenal. Liverpool sold Sadio Mané to Bayern, and Bayern sold Robert Lewandowski to Barcelona.

Manchester United would love to sell Cristiano Ronaldo, if only anyone would like to buy him. Barcelona would love to sell Dutch star Frenkie de Jong to United, but, well, that one would take a while to explain.

So let’s get back to the original point: There’s no shame in selling players, even for soccer’s superpowers. If the right offer comes for Wagner, the Union should take it, and they will.

“It’s a good problem,” Curtin said.

Now to wait for the answer.