Angels are live underdogs in series opener against Phillies with Taijuan Walker on the mound

The Philadelphia Phillies host the Los Angeles Angels on Monday for Game 1 of a three-game interleague set.

While the Phillies are atop a crazy National League Wildcard race, the Angels have collapsed in typical Halos fashion. They’re 18-22 in the second half and 7-17 in August, and they’ve recently learned of Shohei Ohtani’s UCL tear.

Despite the vibes surrounding both teams, I’m still betting on the Angels on Monday.

I think the Halos are a tad undervalued in this game.

I don’t believe in Phillies starting pitcher Taijuan Walker.

I think his success comes from deception. Walker has a wacky six-pitch mix starting with a splitter (33% usage) and ending with a sinker (25%) and cutter (18%), and he can fool lineups by adjusting his usage week-by-week or start-by-start.

But Walker doesn’t have good enough stuff to be a significantly above-average starting pitcher. Eventually, MLB hitters catch up to a low-90s fastball and mid-80s secondaries.

Recently, hitters have been catching up. Walker has allowed nine earned runs over his past 17 innings, and he boasts a 4.33 ERA and a 5.22 FIP over his past six starts.

Ultimately, Walker doesn’t miss enough bats or generate enough strikes. He’s on pace to post the worst strikeout minus walk rate of his career (9.8%) and backs that up with a lackluster batted-ball profile.

Walker projects as a mid-4.00s ERA pitcher at best.

Meanwhile, I am buying low on L.A. starting pitcher Lucas Giolito, who is trying to find his footing after a disastrous start to his career in Anaheim. Giolito allowed 19 earned runs across his first 21 innings in an Angels uniform.

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But there’s no way Gio continues to perform at such a poor level. He ranks about league average by FanGraphs’ Stuff+ model (98), and his slider still ranks well above average (110). He’s still striking out about 25% of batters, and his Whiff rate ranks above the 70th percentile of qualified pitchers.

I think Walker is overvalued, and Giolito is undervalued entering Monday’s series, and I think the betting line reflects that.

The Phillies boast a better lineup and better bullpen.

However, the Phils used their two best relievers during Sunday’s 3-0 win over St. Louis – Craig Kimbrel threw 19 pitches and earned a save, while Jose Alvarado threw 15 pitches and earned a hold – so the Phillies relief advantage is substantially smaller than normal.

Considering the pitching matchup, I make this line closer to a pick ‘em than Vegas does. So, I show some value in backing Giolito and fading Walker at moderate plus-money odds, even with the offensive disadvantage.

Angels ML (+120) at DraftKings Sportsbook

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