Why the Phillies will hit the Over and top 87 wins for the first time since 2011

The Philadelphia Phillies begin defense of their 2022 National League pennant in Texas on Thursday afternoon.

They’ll do so with a new shortstop in Trea Turner, a multitalented two-time All-Star and standout for Team USA in this month’s World Baseball Classic, a new No. 3 starter in veteran right-hander Taijuan Walker and a new closer in veteran Craig Kimbrell.

Those three key additions join such holdovers as National League home run champion Kyle Schwarber and standout catcher J.T. Realmuto.

A three-time All-Star and two-time Gold Glove winner, Realmuto once again will be receiving pitches from right-handed co-aces Aaron Nola and Zack Wheeler, who combined for 23 victories last season.

So Philadelphia enters the 2023 campaign with a lot of positives. Unfortunately for the Phillies, they’re offset by a couple of big negatives — so big that oddsmakers have the team projected for fewer regular-season wins than in 2022.

With Opening Day on the horizon, here’s a look at the Phillies’ 2023 MLB win total odds and our betting recommendation.

Odds updated as of 2:15 p.m. ET on March 27.

Let’s rip off the ol’ Band-Aid and get right to the negatives.

Two-time MVP/team leader/2022 postseason hero Bryce Harper is recovering from offseason Tommy John surgery. The Phillies’ right fielder/designated hitter will start the season on the injured list and there’s no definitive time table for his return.

Surviving as much as half the season without Harper’s bat was going to be difficult enough for Philadelphia. Then came another huge blow late last week when slugging first baseman Rhys Hoskins tore his left ACL while fielding a ball in a spring training game.

Hoskins — who had 30 home runs last year, belted six more in the playoffs and was off to a hot start this spring — will miss the entire 2023 season.

» READ MORE: Sizing up Phillies betting markets ahead of the 2023 MLB season

That’s a lot of lost production for an offense that finished seventh in MLB in runs and eighth in OPS in 2022.

The silver lining? Philadelphia still has plenty of offensive firepower returning from last year. And it starts with Turner, who undoubtedly will be a top-of-the-order spark plug that the Phillies lacked a year ago.

Signed as a free agent in the offseason, the former Washington National and Los Angeles Dodger makes consistent contact, has surprising power (as he showed in the World Baseball Classic) and is as fast as anyone in MLB.

Beyond Turner, Schwarber and Realmuto, Philadelphia has two rising-star infielders in third baseman Alec Bohm and second-year starter Bryson Stott, who moves from shortstop to second base.

If designated hitter Nick Castellanos can bounce back from a down year (13 HRs, .694 OPS in 136 games), and if rookie Darick Hall (28 HRs in 101 Triple-A games in 2022) can somewhat fill Hoskins’ shoes at first base, the Phillies will score more than their fair share of runs.

Also, Turner’s addition should drastically improve a defense that ranked fourth in MLB in fewest errors last season but 25th out of 30 teams in runs saved (-33).

» READ MORE: Baseball is speeding up in 2023, and new Phillie Trea Turner shows no signs of slowing down

To put it bluntly, we’re not sold on Kimbrel as the answer to anchor a bullpen that was tremendous during the 2022 playoff run. After all, the 34-year-old lost his closing gig with Los Angeles late last season.

However, the pitching staff ahead of Kimbrell — from starters to middle relievers to setup men — should be a strength. So if Kimbrel falters, second-year manager Rob Thompson will have multiple replacement options.

As for the Phillies’ 2023 schedule, there’s both good news and bad. The team is stuck in the loaded NL East, where both the Mets and Braves reloaded after 101-win seasons last year.

However, with MLB switching to a balanced schedule, Philadelphia will play only 13 division games instead of 18 or 19. The counter to that: For the first time in MLB history, every team will play at least one three-game series against the other 29 clubs, including 46 total interleague games.

That means the Phillies will have to run up against such American League juggernauts as the defending champion Astros, Yankees, Blue Jays and Rays, plus rising teams like the Mariners, Guardians and White Sox (not to mention Mike Trout, Shohei Ohtani and the Angels).

Then again, every team will face the exact same challenges, including the Braves and Mets.

Granted, Philadelphia only reached 87 victories last year — the franchise’s highest total since a 102-win campaign in 2011. But 56 of those victories came in 112 games from June 1 onward — including a bunch while Harper was sidelined two months with a broken thumb.

So while losing Hoskins is huge, we’re still bullish on the 2023 Phillies. If they can play .500 ball until Harper returns — and avoid any further catastrophic injuries — they should be poised for another strong second half and finally get over the 90-win mark.

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