2023 World Series predictions: Three teams you should bet to win the Fall Classic
Searching for value in the World Series futures market? Look no further than the Padres, Blue Jays and Guardians
In October 2000, the New York Yankees completed a World Series three-peat by beating the crosstown rival Mets.
Nearly a quarter century later, baseball is still waiting for its next repeat champion.
To put the back-to-back drought in perspective, consider this: Anyone who is currently 43 years old wasn’t of legal drinking age when those 2000 Yankees knocked off the Mets in five games. That’s the reality the Houston Astros will face Thursday night when they begin defense of their 2022 title at home against the Chicago White Sox.
Then again, MLB bettors and oddsmakers sure seem to like Houston’s chances to make history in 2023. Despite losing reigning American League Cy Young winner Justin Verlander to the Mets in free agency, the Astros enter the season favored to once again be the last team standing come November.
Can they pull it off? Certainly. Will they? We’re not betting on it.
Instead, here are the three teams we think offer the best value in the World Series futures market on Opening Day — one National League club, one American League club and one dark horse.
Odds updated as of 4:30 a.m. ET on March 29.
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2023 World Series prediction: National League best bet
Team: San Diego Padres
Best odds: +1000 (Caesars Sportsbook and FanDuel)
They say money doesn’t buy happiness. Don’t tell that to the owners of the San Diego Padres.
Over the past few years, they emptied the vault in an effort to bring a World Series title to America’s Finest City for the first time in the franchise’s 53-year history.
How much money are we talking about? The supposedly small-market Padres begin 2023 with MLB’s third-highest payroll — $236.96 million. Only the deep-pockets Yankees ($268.95 million) and Mets ($334.23 million) have committed more cash to players.
In all, 10 Padres — seven pitchers and three position players — are slated to make at least $10 million this year. Leading the way is shortstop Xander Bogaerts, who will earn just shy of $25.5 million in the first year of a free-agent contract he signed in the offseason.
The longtime Boston Red Sox shortstop joins a scary lineup that includes superstars Manny Machado and Juan Soto, as well as underrated infielders Ha-Seong Kim and first baseman Jake Cronenworth.
Then there’s the electrifying Fernando Tatis Jr., who will take his spot in the lineup after completing his 80-game PED-related suspension April 20.
In addition to its stacked offense, San Diego’s pitching staff features the 1-2-3 punch of Yu Darvish, Joe Musgrove and Blake Snell, along with flame-throwing closer Josh Hader.
Everyone but Bogaerts and Tatis were part of last year’s team that pulled off postseason upsets against the Mets and Dodgers to reach the National League Championship Series for the first time since 1998 (and only the second time in franchise history).
However, the Padres’ World Series dream ended in a five-game NLCS upset loss to the Phillies. So you know the players — particularly the holdovers — begin this season with a sense of unfinished business.
With the addition of Bogaerts and the return of Tatis, we like San Diego’s chances to finish that business.
Sure, there are a lot of potholes to navigate in the NL — namely, the Dodgers, Braves, Cardinals and Mets. But to be getting double-digit odds with a team that has this much talent is an investment worth making.
» READ MORE: 2023 MLB betting preview: National League win total predictions
2023 World Series prediction: American League best bet
Team: Toronto Blue Jays
Best odds: +1300 (Caesars Sportsbook)
Meet the 2023 Toronto Blue Jays, otherwise known as the Canadian/American League version of the Padres.
Like San Diego, the Blue Jays can beat you at the plate or on the mound thanks to a perfect blend of young and veteran talent.
The 26-and-younger group includes first baseman Vladimir Gurrerero Jr., shortstop Bo Bichette, left fielder Daulton Varsho, catcher Alejandro Kirk and starting pitcher Alek Manoah.
Among those bringing the experience include infielders Whit Merrifield and Matt Chapman, outfielders George Springer and Kevin Kiermaier, starting pitchers Kevin Gausman, Chris Bassitt and Jose Berrios, and closer Jordan Romano.
Also like San Diego, the Blue Jays are no longer pinching pennies — their Opening Day payroll is the sixth-highest in MLB.
And yet another similarity to the Padres: Toronto, which hasn’t been to the Fall Classic since winning consecutive championships in 1992-93, has struggled to get over the hump in October. (Last year’s 92-win squad was swept by Seattle in the best-of-3 wild card round.)
It won’t be easy again this year, as the Blue Jays still have to contend with the equally loaded Astros, Yankees and Rays, as well as the up-and-coming Guardians and Mariners. But as long as they stay healthy, the Jays — who might have the best defense in all of MLB — will be playing mid-October baseball.
Once there, you can be sure their World Series odds will be far shorter than 13-to-1.
» READ MORE: 2023 MLB betting preview: American League win total predictions
2023 World Series prediction: Dark horse best bet
Team: Cleveland Guardians
Best odds: +3000 (Caesars Sportsbook)
It’s easy to forget because they didn’t finish the job, but the Guardians had the Yankees on the ropes in last year’s American League Division Series. Cleveland had a 2-1 lead in the best-of-5 set but couldn’t secure that clinching third victory.
With a roster highlighted by perennial MVP candidate José Ramírez, former Cy Young winner Shane Bieber and a bunch of little-known prospects, Cleveland surprisingly won 92 games last year and rolled to the AL Central crown.
This is yet another balanced club that can beat you multiple ways. It’s also a club that’s well ahead of schedule on a rebuild that required just a one-season dip (Cleveland went 80-82 in 2021).
How did the Guardians get back on track so quickly? Because a bunch of those aforementioned prospects — including second baseman Andrés Giménez, left fielder Steven Kwan and right fielder Oscar Gonzalez — quickly adjusted to life in the big leagues.
And because future Hall of Fame skipper and reigning AL Manager of the Year Terry Francona was and remains the perfect guiding light.
Those youngsters — coupled with Ramírez’s productive bat, Bieber anchoring an above-average pitching staff and Francona’s steady hand — will have Cleveland in the playoff hunt again in 2023.
Might this be the season this franchise ends its 75-year World Series drought — the longest in baseball? It’s definitely possible, and very much worth a 30-to-1 flier.
» READ MORE: Phillies shortstop Trea Turner is favored to lead the MLB in hits, but what about stolen bases?
The Inquirer is not an online gambling operator, or a gambling site. We provide this information about sports betting for entertainment purposes only.