World Series odds: An early look at Phillies-Astros ahead of Fall Classic

The Houston Astros, the American League’s best team, are heading back to the World Series for the fourth time in six seasons. The Philadelphia Phillies, the sixth seed (of six) in the National League, are back in the World Series for the first time since 2009.

One team is in the midst of a dominant run of success, the other has captured a city and gone on an improbable run toward a championship.

David vs. Goliath? Not quite. Though there is a clear betting favorite in this series. And quite a few subplots.

No surprise here. The 106-win Astros haven’t lost in seven postseason games so far, have one of the best lineups in baseball and had the second-lowest team ERA (2.90) during the regular season. On paper it’s all Houston.

But these Phillies have showed how little paper matters. They were underdogs to advance out of the wild card round in St. Louis, but swept the Cardinals in two games. They were underdogs to advance out of the NLDS, but beat the Braves 3-1 in the best of-five-series. They were (small) underdogs to advance out of the NLCS, but won three straight home games and knocked of the Padres, 4-1.

The Phillies got another dominant performance by Zack Wheeler in Sunday’s clinching game, and have a 1-2 punch at the top of the rotation in Wheeler and Aaron Nola that make them live underdogs in this World Series. That’s without mentioning a locked-in Bryce Harper and the Rhys Hoskins Redemption Tour. The Phillies’ bats are heating up at the right time. This shouldn’t come as that much of a surprise. The Phillies were seventh in baseball in runs scored during the regular season while the Astros were eighth.

It’s just that the Phillies had trouble keeping opponents off the board, too.

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The Astros are averaging 4.4 runs per game during the postseason while the Phillies are averaging 5.2.

Where the Astros have the big advantage is in their rotation and bullpen. Houston’s 2.80 bullpen ERA was the best in the Bigs in 2022. Philadelphia’s was 4.27.

Meanwhile, Houston starter Justin Verlander will likely win the AL Cy Young award. And Lance McCullers and Framber Valdez can be downright dominant. The Phillies, on the other hand, have needed lots of bullpen innings whenever Wheeler and Nola aren’t on the mound. It worked out vs. the Padres, but this is the Astros.

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Will it be Yordan Álvarez smacking the Astros to a title? Will Bryce Harper’s bat stay hot and pound the Phillies to a world championship?

Here’s a look at the early MVP odds.

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