Are the Phillies worth buying in futures markets as Bryce Harper returns?

Rejoice! MVP Bryce Harper is set to return to the Phillies on Tuesday, 159 days after he had Tommy John surgery, and we have Phillies predictions.

Philadelphia needs him. After a month of play, the Phillies are 15-15, sitting in fourth place in the NL East. The defending league champions are looking dull.

So, can Harper be a savior? And, if so, is it worth taking a shot with the Phillies in the divisional, league or World Series futures markets?

While it’s enticing to buy low on the Phillies right before their best player returns from a long injury stint, the question is more complex. It requires a deep dive into the state of the 2023 Phillies.

Does Harper’s return help the Phillies?

Yes, duh. He’s one of the best players of our generation.

However, the bigger question is: How exactly does Harper help the Phillies?

The obvious answer is in the lineup, as the Phillies’ bats have been severely underperforming. The Phillies are among the bottom 10 MLB teams in average Exit Velocity and Hard-Hit rate, so their current xwOBA is just ahead of the notoriously soft-hitting Marlins.

A big area of need is from a plate discipline perspective, as the Phillies boast the fourth-lowest walk rate (7%) and fourth-highest chase rate (31.5%) among MLB teams.

So, plopping a guy with a career .243 ISO and 14.9% walk rate in the middle of the lineup immediately cures those problems.

As an aside: I am slightly worried about Harper’s drastic decrease in walk rate during the 2022 season (10.7%). It’s easy to chalk up his overall struggles (a 138 wRC+ is struggling for him) to injury, but I’m not sure why he was swinging more than usual (his chase rate was up over 10%). But let’s not jump to conclusions until we see a fully healthy version of him this year.

Harper’s return also should boost the other guys in the lineup. Trea Turner is waiting to break out (83 OPS+), while Kyle Schwarber needs to see a few more hits fall (.234 BABIP fueling a .208 average).

Ultimately, I think the Phillies lineup is slightly undervalued with Harper back in the fold, even when considering their ultra-high BABIP number (.336, highest in MLB). There’s too much talent up and down the roster, and I expect this lineup to start firing on all cylinders.

But will that lead to more wins?

The Phillies have an elite bullpen led by all-world closer Jose Alvarado. They also have an above-average defense. Harper does nothing to affect those areas, but if I were a Phillies fan, I’d be most concerned about the rotation.

Zack Wheeler should start producing at an elite level again, as he’s a generally slow starter (career 4.31 ERA in April). But the Phillies lack starting pitching depth.

Matt Strahm is pitching well in the early going, but he hasn’t pitched over 100 innings in a season since 2019. I can’t make a statistical argument for regression, but I don’t trust him across a full season.

Trotting Bailey Falter out every five days hasn’t been fun, as he continues to post horrific batted-ball statistics despite the best extension in baseball (4.99 expected ERA).

I’m not high on Taijuan Walker, who boasts an expected ERA near 5.00. He also was pulled early from his start against Seattle, only to allow eight earned runs over 3⅓ innings to the Dodgers five days later, bringing up questions about his health.

Perhaps Ranger Suarez can return from injury and be a difference-maker, but he showed signs of regression in 2022 (3.78 expected ERA, much-lower strikeout numbers).

Normally, rotation depth isn’t a concern for the Phillies because Wheeler combines with Aaron Nola to produce one of MLB’s best one-two starting pitching punches. Those two carried the Phillies to a World Series appearance.

But Nola looks terrible in the early going, at least by his standards (4.46 ERA, 3.82 xERA). After posting a 30% strikeout rate in 2022, that number is down to 19.3% after six starts, and he’s on pace to post his highest walk rate in three years (6.2%). Also, his usually high ground-ball rate (career 47.5%) is way down (35.2%).

But the most troubling indicator of Nola’s early 2023 is the velocity. He’s never been a flamethrower, but he’s lost a tick across his arsenal and is on pace to post his lowest average fastball velocity since 2016 (92.1 mph).

That is a huge problem, and alarm bells should be ringing in every fan’s head.

Unfortunately, Harper can’t make Nola throw faster or provide any rotational depth.

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I can’t buy the Phillies in the futures market until their starting pitching woes get fixed. Their overall starting pitching metrics aren’t bad, but there are too many troubling indicators among Nola, Walker and Falter, so I’d argue the Phillies rotation is generally overvalued.

However, I do see a way we can potentially profit from Harper’s return.

In my personal power ratings, I’d make the lineup undervalued, and the rotation overvalued. So, naturally, I’d look to target a lot of Phillies’ first-five inning overs, targeting situations where Nola gets shelled while the Turner-Schwarber-Harper trio starts to generate more offense.

We could start Tuesday night with Strahm facing off against Julio Urias, the Dodgers’ struggling ace. The F5 total is 4.5 (over/+116) at FanDuel Sportsbook.

I’d avoid full-game overs in the future, as Philly’s bullpen has flipped its metrics after an awful first two weeks of the season. I’d argue the relief staff is undervalued, so you could even target live unders.

But monitor the Phillies’ situation closely. Harper could struggle in his return, or Nola could bounce back, or Suarez could provide much-needed starting pitching. The Phillies’ situation is complex, with plenty of possible outcomes.

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