With an improving pitching staff, is it time to bet on the surging Phillies?

I’m constantly perusing MLB odds, and I’ve thought a lot about the Phillies lately.

The Fightin’ Phils are 15-7 in June on the back of two six-game winning streaks. I doubt the Phillies will overtake (or ever catch up to) the Braves in the divisional race, but they’ve clawed their way back into the Wildcard race.

So, is now the time to buy the Phillies? Is there value in their short-term game-to-game or long-term futures markets?

In short, I’m relatively high on the Phillies in the future.

The lineup is starting to come around, having posted an above-average wRC+ since the calendar flipped to June (103). This isn’t the most dangerous lineup in MLB, but the Kyle Schwarber-Nick Castellanos-Bryce Harper trio has found its stride, and Trea Turner is finally not an offensive liability (.798 OPS since June 1).

But Philly’s value lies with its pitching staff – the Phillies will go as far as their arms take them.

The rotation struggled early because of Zack Wheeler and Aaron Nola’s struggles. The Phillies rely heavily on their top two arms to win ballgames.

But luckily, those top arms are settling in.

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Wheeler is a notoriously slow starter, and July is when he begins to turn up the heat. Add that to some expected positive regression (3.76 ERA, 3.10 expected ERA), and I expect excellent results for him in the future.

Nola’s early-season struggles were primarily because of velocity and stuff issues. But he’s slowly solved both issues, getting his fastball velocity and Stuff+ metrics back up to career averages.

Nola’s expected metrics are also far below his actual metrics (4.38 ERA, 3.54 expected ERA), so better days are ahead. He dominated the red-hot Braves in his most recent start, and I expect more of that moving forward.

If those two succeed, the Phillies rotation should return to elite status. I’m betting on success.

Additionally, I expect improved reliever numbers with Jose Alvardo healthy. The Phillies have a top-10 bullpen with everyone healthy (Alvarado, Craig Kimbrel, Greg Soto, Seranthondy Dominguez), and that unit is returning arms.

Altogether, I expect continually improved performance from the Phillies. They went on a late-season hot streak last year, and I think they could do something similar this season.

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Based on their surging play and expected positive regression, I’d recommend two potential wagers on the Phils.

Firstly, I’d play Phillies to make the playoffs (+100) at Caesars.

Baseball Prospectus projects the Phillies have a 74% chance of making the Playoffs, while FanGraphs projects around 44%. Between the two, I believe there’s a a high enough probability to shoot our shot with the 50% implied odds.

The Phillies sit three games behind the Dodgers for the third Wildcard spot. However, I think there’s a good chance one of the three current Wildcard teams flame out.

The Marlins are due for significant negative regression, given their 19-5 record in one-run games, 4-1 record in extra-inning games and -15 run differential.

I wouldn’t expect the Giants to replicate their performance from this recent 12-2 stretch.

The Dodgers need to get healthy in the bullpen to make a run for the NL West title, but that’s not guaranteed to happen.

I fully believe the Phillies can sneak into one of those three spots, and I’d bet on that.

Secondly, I’d target the Phillies more often than usual in game-to-game markets, especially in starts made by Wheeler and Nola.

Given their top two arms are undervalued, you’ll likely get the Phillies cheaper than they should be in these games over the next month.

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