Sports Betting Commercial Content. 21+. Provided by Action Network, official betting partner of The Inquirer.MLB preview: Phillies vs. Diamondbacks odds, prediction and picks
The Action Network’s Michael Arinze examines whether the Diamondbacks can pull off the sweep against the Phillies
If you thought the Philadelphia Phillies would waltz into Arizona and take care of business against the Diamondbacks, think again. Arizona has now hung 25 runs on Philadelphia in the series’ first two games.
The Diamondbacks could complete the sweep on Wednesday when rookie, Tommy Henry, starts his sixth career game. Philadelphia will counter with a second-year starter in Bailey Falter.
On Tuesday, It took the Phillies until the eighth inning to snap a 12-inning scoreless drought. And despite their struggles in the desert, sportsbooks once again installed the Phillies as road favorites.
We’ll dig into the numbers and assess whether the Phillies are a bit overvalued in this spot.
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Phillies vs. Diamondbacks MLB odds
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Moneyline: PHI (-136) vs. ARI (+116)
Spread: PHI -1.5 (+112) vs. ARI +1.5 (-134)
Total: Over 9 (-114) | Under 9 (-106)
Phillies vs. Diamondbacks probable pitchers
Bailey Falter (2-3, 4.41 ERA) vs. Tommy Henry (3-2, 3.27 ERA)
I made a case for the Phillies to bounce back on Tuesday after blowing a 7-0 lead the night before against the Diamondbacks. For a second, I thought maybe I was experiencing déjà vu as it was the Phillies’ turn to give the Diamondbacks a nine-run head start.
However, Philadelphia was never in the game as Aaron Nola allowed eight runs in four innings of work. And now, to avoid a four-game losing streak, the Phillies have to turn to Falter to bail them out.
But if the Phillies couldn’t mount a response following Monday’s meltdown, it’s tough to see them doing so in the final game of this series.
It might be a small sample size, but Arizona does have some experience against Falter. According to Baseball Savant, in ten plate appearances, the Diamondbacks are batting .300 with a .376 wOBA. In contrast, the Phillies lineup has yet to register any at-bats against Henry.
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I think Henry is catching the Phillies at the right time as their bats have noticeably cooled off. Like Falter, Henry is a left-handed pitcher, and the Phillies’ splits (.266 / .338 / .441 vs. .246 / .305 / .410) have been better against southpaws this season.
However, it’s entirely possible that the lack of familiarity with Henry could give the Arizona rookie a slight edge heading into this matchup.
One thing we could see in this game is plenty of runs. Based on FanGraphs advanced metrics, both pitchers are candidates for regression. Henry comes into this game with a 4.68 FIP, while Falter’s is even higher at 5.50.
But given how the Diamondbacks are swinging the bats, I think the home underdogs are very live in this game.
It’s worth noting that Arizona came into this series off a three-game sweep on the road against the White Sox.
Since the All-Star break, the Diamondbacks’ offense has been much better as FanGraphs ranks them 13th with an above-average wRC+ value of 104. In the first half of the season, Arizona ranked 26th with a wRC+ value of 90.
I think the Diamondbacks are getting a boost from their young players as they recently called up Corbin Carroll, the third overall prospect, according to mlb.com. My model is starting to take note of the Diamondbacks’ improvements, making this game much closer to a pick’em.
As a result, I’ll gladly take a shot with the home underdogs.
Phillies vs. Diamondbacks pick
Diamondbacks ML +116
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