MLB Preview: Phillies vs. Reds Odds, Picks, Prediction

The New York Mets left the Philadelphia Phillies reeling after back-to-back shutouts at Citi Field. Sunday’s 6-0 loss was perhaps the biggest head-scratcher as it’s not often you see a team scatter nine hits and still fail to put a run on the board.

However, if the Philadelphia team is looking for its version of a Silver Linings Playbook, their nine hits were six more than they had the previous night in a 1-0 loss.

It’s entirely possible the Phillies ran into some quality pitching opponents. After all, the Mets lined up Max Scherzer, Jacob deGrom, and Chris Bassitt— the Mets 1-2-3, in the series.

Philadelphia won’t see that level of pitching when they head to Cincinnati for a three-game series against the Reds.

Mike Minor will get the start for the Reds as he hopes to snap a nine-game winless streak. The Phillies will look to get a boost with Noah Syndergaard on the mound as they’re a perfect 2-0 in his starts since his arrival at the trade deadline.

It should be no surprise that the Phillies are a massive favorite against a Reds team that’s 23 games below .500. As a result, Philadelphia backers might need to be a bit creative with their bet type in this matchup.

Odds provided by BetMGM

Moneyline: PHI (-185) vs. CIN (+150)

Spread: PHI -1.5 (-115) vs. CIN +1.5 (-105)

Total: Over 9 (-120) | Under 9 (+100)

Noah Syndergaard (6-8, 3.96 ERA) vs. Mike Minor (1-9, 6.24 ERA)

It’s difficult to find any positives regarding Minor moving forward. His 6.75 FIP points to even further regression given his 6.24 ERA.

The numbers speak for themselves, as his home run (2.61 HR/9) and walk (4.06 BB/9) ratios are the worst of his career. And when Minor does manage to find the strike zone, he’s not missing many bats.

According to FanGraphs, opposing hitters are making contact on 90.2% of his pitches inside the zone. What’s interesting is that Minor’s getting ahead of hitters as he has a 60.1% first-pitch strike rate.

However, he often struggles to string together successive pitches to take full advantage. Hitters have no problem waiting him out for their preferred pitches as his stuff isn’t good enough to induce swings outside the strike zone.

If we look at his velocity, his 90.4 mph fastball is a career-low and unlikely to overpower professional hitters when they step inside the batter’s box.

As for Syndergaard, his advanced numbers are more favorable as his 3.79 FIP would suggest some positive regression.

While the right-hander hasn’t looked like the same pitcher before undergoing Tommy John surgery, he’s still able to average around 94.5 mph on his fastball.

Even with less velocity, Syndergaard stands a better chance than other pitchers to have success because he’s always had impeccable command. Throughout his time in the majors, he has a 2.11 BB/9 ratio.

Syndergaard will face a Cincinnati team that he’s had tremendous success against while a member of the New York Mets. Five of his six outings against the Reds resulted in a quality start, and the Mets won all six meetings.

On Monday night, we’ll find out if the Phillies’ performance over the weekend was more about their bats going cold or simply that they ran into a buzzsaw of pitchers in the Mets rotation.

Philadelphia should be able to get to Minor early as their current lineup is hitting .346 against him with a .428 wOBA and .547 xSLG.

The Phillies also also fare better against southpaws given their .258 AVG / .334 OBP / .438 line vs. .245 AVG / .303 OBP / .411 vs. right-handers.

As a result, I’ll look to isolate Minor by fading him in the first five innings.

According to our Action Labs database, Syndergaard is also a perfect 6-0 when facing the Reds on the first five run line.

Rather than laying the -185 moneyline for the entire game, I’d instead take a shot with the Phillies to lead after five innings at -125 odds.

Phillies F5 RL -0.5 (-125)

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