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Phillies grab NLCS advantage, but who’s favored to take Game 4?

The Phillies have the advantage in the NLCS, and Game Four is a toss-up.

Seranthony Dominguez of the Philadelphia Phillies celebrates with J.T. Realmuto defeating the San Diego Padres 4-2 in game three of the National League Championship Series at Citizens Bank Park on October 21, 2022 in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. (Photo by Elsa/Getty Images)
Seranthony Dominguez of the Philadelphia Phillies celebrates with J.T. Realmuto defeating the San Diego Padres 4-2 in game three of the National League Championship Series at Citizens Bank Park on October 21, 2022 in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. (Photo by Elsa/Getty Images)Read moreElsa / Getty Images
    by Jeff Neiburg, Action Network
    Published 

Oddsmakers pegged the NLCS as a coin flip once the San Diego Padres evened the series and things shifted to Philadelphia for three games.

Then Game Three happened. The Phillies got timely hitting and fielding from Jean Segura and shutdown innings from their bullpen to nab a 2-1 advantage in the series.

Now, entering Game Four with a 2-1 lead and with starts by Zack Wheeler and Aaron Nola to follow in Game Five and Six, the Phillies are -225 favorites at BetMGM to advance to the World Series for the first time since 2009.

How are the odds looking for Game Four?

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Phillies vs. Padres Game Four odds (BetMGM)

Phillies: -110

Padres: -110

Total: 8 runs

Let’s do the coin flip thing again.

The Phillies are turning to unlikely starter Bailey Falter in Game Four and hoping to get three innings before turning to the bullpen for an all-hands-on-deck approach with the workhorse Wheeler throwing Sunday in Game Five. Falter hasn’t pitched in a game since Oct. 5 in Houston, the regular-season finale.

The Padres, meanwhile, are countering with Mike Clevinger, who had a dominant run of three-plus seasons before spending nearly two years out after Tommy John surgery. Clevinger has not been his old self in 2022, but there have been flashes... just not so much recently.

Clevinger was shelled for four earned runs on six hits and failed to complete the third inning in his start vs. the Dodgers in the NLDS. That start came on the heels of a strong outing vs. the White Sox on Oct. 1, but Clevinger had his worst month in September, posting a 7.83 ERA (20 earned runs in 23 innings across five starts).

» READ MORE: Phillies-Padres Game 3: How a meeting in St. Louis and an electric home park set the stage for a wild win

Falter, who the Phillies relied on to fill a hole in their rotation, had a solid 2022 campaign. He went 6-4 with a 3.86 ERA and a 1.21 WHIP and was performed consistently during a key stretch for the Phillies in August and early September. In 20 appearances (16 starts) on the year, he allowed more than two runs just five times.

There’s not much in this one, hence the reason why it’s priced the way it is. What version of Clevinger will we get? Will Falter get through the San Diego lineup unscathed? And what combination of arms will the Phillies use to get what could be 18-plus outs? Get ready for a long one, with multiple pitching changes, as one manager tries to even the series and the other tries to inch closer to an improbable World Series appearance.

» READ MORE: Full sports betting coverage from The Philadelphia Inquirer

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