76ers vs. Cavaliers prediction: Expect a defensive battle in Cleveland

It might be easier to successfully pull off brain surgery, while blindfolded, than make a rational 76ers vs. Cavaliers prediction for Wednesday’s showdown in Cleveland — at least from a point-spread perspective.

After all, the 76ers are hot, having won seven of their last nine games while posting a sizzling 8-1 ATS mark. But Cleveland has nearly been unbeatable on its home court, going 8-1 SU and 7-1-1 ATS.

And even though Philadelphia has won five straight games against the Cavaliers — including three straight in Ohio — Cleveland didn’t have Donovan Mitchell in any of those contests. All the former Utah Jazz shooting guard has done in his first season with the Cavs is average 28.9 points per game. That ranks eighth in the NBA.

Finally, both teams are missing multiple key contributors.

So what’s an NBA bettor to do? Move off the point spread and find value in the total, which is what we did. Here’s our 76ers vs. Cavaliers prediction for Wednesday.

Note: Odds updated as of 10:45 a.m. on Nov. 30.

If the total in this game seems insanely low in today’s high-flying NBA, well, there’s a reason: The 76ers (yes, the 76ers) are the league’s best defensive team in terms of points allowed (105.8 per game).

The Cavaliers? They rank third (107.0).

But this 76ers vs. Cavaliers prediction isn’t so much about those stats as it is those aforementioned missing key players.

Philadelphia once again will be without its starting backcourt, Tyrese Maxey and James Harden continue to nurse foot injuries.

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Meanwhile, the bulk of Cleveland’s front court is in the infirmary. Starting center Jarrett Allen (back) and veteran reserve forward Kevin Love (thumb) won’t be on the court Wednesday. Also, small forward Lamar Stevens (illness) is questionable after sitting out the Cavs’ last two games.

Here’s how much lost production we’re talking about: In 24 combined games this season, Harden and Maxey have averaged 44.9 points (along with 10.5 rebounds and 14.4 assists). Allen, Love and Stevens put up a combined 31.3 points per game to go with 20.6 rebounds and 5.1 assists.

In 12 games without Harden — who has long been a defensive liability — the 76ers are holding opponents to 102.9 points per contest. That’s nearly three points lower than their league-leading average.

During this stretch, coach Doc Rivers’ squad has given up more than 104 points just four times (with a high of 112). And not only did Rivers not have Harden for those dozen games, but Maxey sat out the last five and center Joel Embiid also missed five (foot injury and rest).

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Now look at the scores of Cleveland’s last two games without Allen, Love and Stevens: 102-94 win at Detroit, 100-88 loss at Toronto.

Prior to that, the Cavaliers had only played one game that didn’t reach 200 combined points (103-92 home win over Orlando on Oct. 26).

Since Harden hit the shelf, Philadelphia is 8-4 to the Under, with all eight Unders finishing with 212 combined points or fewer.

Meanwhile, Cleveland has stayed low in five of its last six (including its last three at home). And half of the Cavs’ last 10 games have failed to eclipse 210 total points.

Finally, from the “for what it’s worth” department: The Under is 20-7 in the last 27 Sixers-Cavs meetings in Cleveland.

So even though two of the league’s eight most prolific scorers will be on the floor tonight in Mitchell and Embiid (who ranks second at 31.4 ppg), we still see this as a 48-minute defensive slugfest.

Play the Under at Caesars Sportsbook — then pray there isn’t overtime.

The Inquirer is not an online gambling operator, or a gambling site. We provide this information about sports betting for entertainment purposes only.