Grizzlies vs. 76ers prediction: Lay the short price with streaking Philly

The Philadelphia 76ers come out of the All-Star break with the NBA’s fourth-best overall record, fourth-best road record and second-best point spread record. They also boast the league’s second-leading scorer in All-Star center Joel Embiid.

Additionally, the Sixers return to the court Thursday riding a four-game SU and ATS winning streak. That’s part of a 26-7 SU and 21-12 ATS run that dates to Dec. 9.

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Yet despite all those facts, five teams still have better odds than Philadelphia to win the 2022-23 NBA championship.

On top of that, the 76ers are just a modest favorite to knock off the Memphis Grizzlies at Wells Fargo Center on Thursday. That would be the same Grizzlies who have dropped nine of their last 13 games — including seven straight on the road (1-6 ATS).

Not sure what the 76ers have to do to get some respect in the NBA betting community. But we’re giving them some respect in this matchup with Memphis.

Odds updated as of 11:45 a.m. ET Thursday.

Before heaping some more praise on Philadelphia, let’s dissect Memphis’ current slump.

Since Jan. 20, the Grizzlies have only defeated Indiana, Chicago, Minnesota and Utah. Of that quartet, only the Timberwolves (31-30) have a winning record and are currently in the playoff picture (they sit eighth in the Western Conference).

And that Feb. 10 victory over Minnesota at home was offset by a 111-100 loss in Minneapolis as a 1.5-point road favorite two weeks earlier.

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The double-digit defeat capped a winless five-game road trip for the Grizzlies, who have since gotten pummeled in two additional road games: 128-113 at Cleveland as a 6-point underdog and 119-109 at Boston as a 3.5-point underdog.

Those latter two results look even worse when realizing the Cavaliers’ best player (Donovan Mitchell) only scored six of his team’s 128 points, and Boston didn’t have its starting backcourt (Jalen Brown and Marcus Smart are hurt).

Oddly enough, Memphis’ current 4-9 SU and ATS slump was preceded by a season-best 11-game winning streak.

So why the sudden about-face for the Grizzlies? We think it has a lot to do with the loss of center and leading rebounder Steven Adams, who has been sidelined with a knee injury since posting a third straight double-double (10 points, 16 rebounds) in a 112-110 loss at Phoenix on Jan. 22.

That was the second game of Memphis’ winless five-game road trip. In the last 11 contests without Adams, the Grizzlies have lost five times by double digits (four of those on the road).

Think Embiid is a bit giddy that he won’t have to deal with the physical, 6-foot-11 Adams, who averages nearly twice as many rebounds (11.5) as any of his teammates? (Power forward Jaren Jackson Jr. is second at 6.7.)

Speaking of Embiid, he continues to deal with a nagging left foot injury. But he chose to play in Sunday’s All-Star game and scored 32 points in 28 minutes. So he’ll be on the court Thursday, and he’ll be fully rested.

With Embiid in uniform, Philadelphia is 16-3 SU and 13-6 ATS since New Year’s Eve. Granted, four of the last 13 wins have been tight (four points or less). But only one of those — a 137-133 win over Brooklyn on Jan. 25 — was at home.

Since that contest, the 76ers are 5-1 SU and ATS at Wells Fargo Center. That includes a 126-119 victory over MVP frontrunner Nikola Jokic and the Nuggets (who have a five-game lead over second-place Memphis in the Western Conference).

The point spread in that game against Denver? Philly -3, nearly identical to Thursday’s line.

In fact, the 76ers have the NBA’s best ATS record at home (21-10). The Grizzlies? They have the NBA’s third-worst ATS record on the road (9-18-1).

Throw in the fact that the home team has won 10 of the last 11 Grizzlies vs. 76ers meetings — with the winner covering the spread in all 11 — and we’ll happily lay this cheap number at FanDuel.

The Inquirer is not an online gambling operator, or a gambling site. We provide this information about sports betting for entertainment purposes only.