How the NBA futures market is looking after the trade deadline as the league heads to its All-Star break
Heading into All-Star Weekend, Phoenix joins Boston, Milwaukee as top contenders to win this year’s title
Kevin Durant to the Suns. Kyrie Irving to the Mavericks. Eric Gordon to the Clippers. D’Angelo Russell to the Lakers. John Wall and Russell Westbrook to … basketball oblivion.
Last week’s NBA trade deadline featured a whirlwind of head-spinning action that saw a couple of superstars and dozens of key role players change addresses.
The flurry of deals certainly helped moving companies boost their first-quarter profits. However, they did little to alter the NBA championship odds landscape — but for two big exceptions.
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With the league set to pause for the All-Star break beginning Friday, here’s an updated look at NBA futures odds and betting action.
Odds updated as of 2 p.m. ET on Feb. 16.
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NBA championship odds
A year ago at this time, the Phoenix Suns were well on their way to posting a franchise-record 64 victories and finishing with the NBA’s best regular-season record for the second consecutive season.
Last week at this time, Phoenix was barely floating above .500 at 30-27 and sitting in sixth place in the Western Conference.
The Suns’ NBA championship odds at BetMGM when last week began: +1800 (up from +1600 the previous week). No fewer than eight teams had shorter odds to win it all.
Today? Phoenix is +450 to win its first NBA title, and only one other squad is in front of them in BetMGM’s pecking order: The Boston Celtics, who have possessed the league’s best record and been the NBA championship frontrunner all season.
That’s how much of an impact a 34-year-old, 13-time All-Star and two-time NBA Finals MVP can have on the NBA futures market.
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Indeed, Durant’s trade from the Nets to the Suns — which was executed three days after teammate Kyrie Irving begged out of Brooklyn and landed in Dallas — sent oddsmakers scrambling to adjust their NBA title odds.
Yes, Durant remains sidelined with a knee injury that has forced him to miss 17 straight games. Yes, he has yet to play a second for his new team. And yes, Phoenix (32-27) still only has the fourth-best record in the West — not to mention 10 fewer wins than Boston (42-17).
However, the mere thought of the 6-foot-10 forward running the floor with All-Star guards Devin Booker and Chris Paul, as well as center DeAndre Ayton, caused the NBA betting market to lift the Suns to the No. 2 position.
At least at most sportsbooks, anyway.
Red-hot Milwaukee Bucks holding their ground
Prior to the Durant trade, the Celtics and Bucks spent weeks as the top two NBA title favorites across the board.
While sportsbooks like BetMGM and Caesars have pushed the Suns directly behind Boston, FanDuel’s market continues to have Milwaukee (+410) ahead of Phoenix (+500) and behind Boston (+270).
And rightfully so.
Assuming they knock off the lowly Chicago Bulls on Thursday night — they’re an 8-point favorite to do so — the Bucks will head into the All-Star break on a 12-game winning streak.
A victory in Chicago also would put Milwaukee (40-17) just a half-game behind the Celtics in the race for the NBA’s best record.
Despite that stellar record and their current winning streak, the Bucks’ championship odds are actually a bit longer at BetMGM (+550) than they were six weeks ago (+500).
Of course, that miniscule odds drop is akin to stepping from a curb to the street.
The Brooklyn Nets’ freefall down the NBA futures board? That’s like jumping off the rim of the Grand Canyon — without a parachute.
On the final day of January, with Irving on the court and Durant on the mend, the Nets were tied with the Denver Nuggets for third in BetMGM’s NBA title market with +800 odds.
Today? Brooklyn is tied with the Sacramento Kings for 14th at BetMGM at 100-to-1 (+10000).
The only other team besides Phoenix and Brooklyn whose NBA title odds were significantly impacted at the trade deadline: Dallas.
In the days prior to adding Irving, the Mavericks were positioned 12th in BetMGM’s NBA futures market at +2500. That number dropped to +1400 when Irving arrived.
Dallas remains the +1400 seven choice at BetMGM, with Caesars offering the same price. FanDuel is out to +1700 on the Mavs.
The best of the rest
The Denver Nuggets have spent the last several weeks perched atop the Western Conference standings. Their 41-18 record trails only Boston and Milwaukee, and star center Nikola Jokic is the odds-on favorite to win his third straight NBA MVP.
So it’s no surprise to see Denver as the consensus fourth choice to win its first NBA championship. The Nuggets’ +750 odds at FanDuel are slightly longer than at BetMGM and Caesars (both +700).
The Los Angeles Clippers are fifth at both BetMGM (+1100) and FanDuel (+1200). However, Caesars Sportsbook has the Philadelphia 76ers (+1200) slightly ahead of the Clippers (+1300).
The Sixers are sixth at both BetMGM (+1200) and FanDuel (+1300).
Then there’s the defending-champion Golden State Warriors.
Despite heading into the All-Star break at 29-29, sitting ninth in the Western Conference standings and being without injured All-Star Steph Curry, the Warriors remain among a cluster of teams with odds of +1600 or better.
To put Golden State’s current NBA title odds into perspective, consider this: Oklahoma City (28-29) is a half-game behind the Warriors in the Western Conference. Yet Caesars has Golden State at +1400 to win another Larry O’Brien trophy and the Thunder at +50000 (500-to-1).
Not only that, but nine teams that enter the All-Star break with a better record than the Warriors have longer NBA title odds at FanDuel than the defending champs.
Those squads: the Mavericks (31-29, +1700), Grizzlies (35-22, +1900), Cavaliers (38-23, +3000), Heat (32-27, +5500), Pelicans (30-29, +6000), Nets (34-24, +12000), Kings (32-25, +13000), Knicks (33-27, +21000) and Timberwolves (31-29, +24000).
Tracking the NBA championship action
So why are Golden State’s odds so low despite their mediocre record and Curry’s injury? Because the Warriors have long been — and continue to be — one of the most popular teams among NBA futures bettors.
In fact, at BetMGM, more money has been wagered on Golden State to repeat as champions than any other team — the Warriors have attracted 17.5% of all NBA futures dollars at the book.
Next in line in terms of handle are the Nuggets (16.8%), Celtics (10.8%), Suns (9.6%) and Bucks (6.4%).
As far as number of NBA title wagers at BetMGM, Denver leads the way at 13.7%, followed by Boston (10.6%), Golden State (10.3%), Phoenix (9.0%) and Milwaukee (7.2%).
What about the 76ers? Despite owning the fourth-best record in the league, they’re seventh in ticket count at BetMGM (5.4%) and 11th in handle (3.6%).
Philadelphia takes a four-game winning streak into the All-Star break and is 18-5 since New Year’s Eve. Yet the team’s NBA title odds have barely budged, going from +1600 at BetMGM on Jan. 3 to the current +1300 price.
If Sixers coach Doc Rivers is looking for a way to get his troops charged up coming out of the break, well, relaying that fact ought to do the trick.
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