Sports Betting Commercial Content. 21+. Provided by Action Network, official betting partner of The Inquirer.NFL odds, predictions: Two Week 1 bets we’re making today
The Action Network's Nick Hennion delivers his two best NFL Week 1 bets in advance of the regular season start.
Believe it or not, the NFL regular season is less than two weeks away.
The Los Angeles Rams and Buffalo Bills will kick off the newest season on Thursday, September 8, before a 14-game slate takes center stage on Sunday with the conclusion of the first week coming on Monday Night Football. And even though the start is potentially out of sight and mind for some, there are a few lookahead lines that stood out to me from a betting perspective.
So, without further delay, allow me to present my two best lookahead bets for week one. All odds are reflective at time of writing and are subject to movement.
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Best bet #1 - New York Giants (+6) at Tennessee Titans, BetMGM
Like most, I believe the Tennessee Titans are major regression candidates entering this season. And although I certainly don’t expect them to lose this game outright, signs point to a win but don’t cover situation.
It’s certainly alarming that the New York Giants ranked dead-last in rushing DVOA last season, but they fit a historically profitable system in this matchup. One Action Network PRO system — Road Dog, Low Total after Bad Season — informs a bet on the Giants. That system, which essentially looks for underdogs the public may perceive as worse than they actually are, has a 62 percent historical win rate and 21 percent return on investment.
Plus, a fully healthy Saquon Barkley should come in handy against a Tennessee defense that was average at best last season against the run (14th overall) while the presumed returns of Kenny Golladay and Kadarius Toney — both are currently listed as questionable on the injury report — should bolster a Giants offense that ranked dead-last in offensive DVOA last season, per footballoutsiders.com.
Furthermore, I’m concerned that the departures of A.J. Brown and Julio Jones will see the Titans passing game struggle and force heavy reliance on Derrick Henry. While that may just work against a bad Giants run defense, it’s nearly just as like New York packs the box and tries to force the ball out wide.
As a result, I like the G-Men to keep it close in Week 1 and would bet this down to +5.5.
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Best bet #2 - Houston Texans (+9) vs. Indianapolis Colts, BetMGM
It’s certainly nerve-wracking to take the points with one of the worst teams in the league, but signs point to a cover here for Houston Texans.
Last season, the Texans were fleeced by the Indianapolis Colts by a combined 62-3 margin, but those two games were the only divisional matchups in which they failed to stay within this number. Plus, week one divisional underdogs have historically proven quite profitable. Historically, these qualifying teams have covered at a 62 percent rate and have produced a 20 percent return on investment.
Additionally, it’s my belief there’s a contrarian appeal to the Texans in this spot. Per Action Network data, the Colts have taken 61 percent of early bets but the Texans have received 99 percent of the total handle to date. That qualifies as the largest percentage differential amongst week one spreads and tells me the public is on the Texans while respected bettors are backing the Texans.
Plus, for all of Houston’s problems last season, it should give itself a chance of limiting opportunities for star Colts running back Jonathan Taylor. Last season, the Texans ranked 23rd in total defensive DVOA and 22nd overall in rushing DVOA, per footballoutsiders.com. To me, the departure of head coach David Culley and hiring of new head coach Lovie Smith should give a boost to the defense, especially against an aging Matt Ryan.
For those reasons, back the Texans at +8 or better.
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