Giants vs. Eagles prediction: Grab the points with moneymaking New York

Is he or isn’t he healthy?

That’s the question everyone is asking about Philadelphia Eagles quarterback Jalen Hurts, who sprained his throwing shoulder nearly five weeks ago.

And because the only people who truly know the answer are inside the team’s compound — and sworn to silence — it’s difficult to handicap Saturday night’s Giants vs. Eagles NFC Divisional Playoff matchup at Lincoln Financial Field.

This much we do know: Hurts fully participated in practice all week, and he’s not listed on the injury report.

But that doesn’t mean Hurts isn’t still (pardon the pun) hurting.

So our primary wagering advice for Round 3 of Giants-Eagles is to tread carefully, be it with the point spread or total. Because Hurts is that vital to Philadelphia’s offense — and how opponents defend that offense.

As for our Giants vs. Eagles prediction, because of the unknowns surrounding the durability of Hurts’ shoulder, we have no choice but to grab the points with the NFL’s spread-covering kings of 2022-23.

Odds updated as of 11:15 a.m. ET on Jan. 20.

Thirty-four days.

That’s the gap between the moment Hurts sprained his shoulder in Chicago on Dec. 18 and when he’ll walk onto the field for Saturday night’s playoff battle with New York.

Hurts apparently suffered a Grade 1 shoulder sprain that was on the borderline of being Grade 2.

While we don’t pretend to be doctors, we are capable of doing online research. Which is how we learned that a Grade 1 sprain typically takes one to two weeks to heal. Grade 2 sprains can take from four to six weeks.

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After suffering the injury in the second half in Chicago (yet finishing the game), Hurts sat out the next two contests. The Eagles dropped both, to the Cowboys (40-34 on the road) and Saints (20-10 at home).

Those defeats kept Philadelphia from clinching the NFC East and the NFC’s No. 1 seed. Which is why Hurts was back on the field for the Week 18 finale against New York.

How best to sum up his performance in what turned out to be a lackluster 22-16 Eagles victory? Uneven.

With the Giants resting most of their starters in what was (for them) a meaningless game, Hurts went 20-for-35 for just 229 yards with no touchdowns and one interception.

He completed his first pass to No. 1 wide receiver A.J. Brown for 35 yards, and Brown also had a 37-yard reception on Philadelphia’s second drive. Otherwise, Hurts’ longest completion went for 16 yards.

But it wasn’t so much what Hurts did with his recovering right arm as what he didn’t do with his legs. Coach Nick Sirianni smartly ordered his quarterback to hang near the pocket and not extend plays with his feet (something Hurts did with great effectiveness all season long).

The result: Hurts gained 13 yards on nine “rushing” attempts, and he took three unharmful sacks.

» READ MORE: Philadelphia Eagles odds: How this year’s squad became title contenders

The decision to restrict Hurts’ mobility is a big reason why Philadelphia settled for five field goals (with just one touchdown). Because that mobility keys everything the Eagles do offensively.

The mere threat that Hurts might take off — and pick up huge chunks of yardage — is what keeps defenses honest. It opens the play-action game; it creates holes for running backs; and it forces defenses to play more man-to-man against Philadelphia’s stable of dangerous wideouts.

Now, is Hurts’ shoulder in better shape than it was two weeks ago? Undoubtedly. Will we see his mobility on display Saturday night more so than in Week 18? For sure.

But will Hurts be able to avoid big hits from the Giants’ defenders — first-string defenders who certainly will be targeting the shoulder every chance they get? And if he can’t avoid those hits, will the shoulder hold up?

Those are the big unknowns.

Which brings us back to the original diagnosis: If it was closer to a Grade 2 sprain, then Hurts is on the very back end of the projected recovery time.

So if the shoulder is not fully healed and Hurts takes a big shot and can’t continue, well, the Eagles’ season would fall into the lap of backup Gardner Minshew.

As it is, Philadelphia is facing a New York squad that’s sky high after its 31-24 upset win over Minnesota in last week’s wild-card round.

Quarterback Daniel Jones (301 passing yards, team-high 78 rushing yards, two passing TDs) was nothing short of spectacular in his first playoff start.

Jones did that damage against one the league’s worst defenses. This week, he faces an Eagles stop unit that led the league in pass defense and ranked second overall in total yards allowed.

Jones sat out the Week 18 game in Philly and was held mostly in check four weeks earlier against the Eagles at home. He had two touchdowns (one rushing, one passing) but produced just 195 total yards and was sacked seven times.

Philadelphia blasted the Giants 48-22 that day, with Hurts passing for 217 yards, rushing for 77 and accounting for three touchdowns. His performance also helped create space for running back Miles Sanders, who rushed for 144 yards and two touchdowns.

If that Hurts shows up Saturday night, Philadelphia will win and likely cover this number. But that’s a big “if”.

As it is, the blowout win in New York is the last time the Giants lost a game by more than six points. And it’s one of just two times in the last nine games dating to mid-November that the Eagles beat an opponent by more than a touchdown.

In fact, Philly is just 3-7 ATS in its last 10 games, failing to cash in each of the last four.

The Giants? They’re the best spread-covering team in the NFL at 14-4 ATS. They’re also 8-1 ATS away from New York (five straight covers) and 11-2 ATS as an underdog.

That includes the 22-16 loss at Philadelphia as a 16.5-point underdog in Week 18, when the Giants’ backups went toe-to-toe with the Eagles’ starters (including Hurts) for 60 minutes.

Couple those facts with the Hurts question marks, and we’re backing the cash machine that is the Giants. And if Hurts can’t make it to the finish line, we won’t be shocked if New York ends the Eagles’ dream season.

» READ MORE: Full sports betting coverage from The Philadelphia Inquirer

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