Giants vs. Eagles prediction: NFC East clash in Philadelphia should fall short of total

After the Philadelphia Eagles eviscerated the Giants in New York four weeks ago, most NFL observers figured the Week 18 rematch at Lincoln Financial Field would be meaningless.

And it is. Just not for the team everyone presumed.

Following consecutive losses without injured starting quarterback Jalen Hurts, the Eagles head into Sunday’s regular season finale still needing a victory to claim three important prizes: the NFC East title, a No. 1 seed and a first-round playoff bye.

On the other hand, New York last week wrapped up its first postseason berth in six years and is locked into the No. 6 seed, regardless of Sunday’s result.

With this contest meaning everything to Philadelphia and nothing to the Giants, oddsmakers made the Eagles a two-touchdown home favorite. That matches the 49ers (-14 vs. Arizona) for the largest point spread on the Week 18 betting board.

It’s a point spread we want absolutely no part of — not with so many questions still hovering over this rivalry matchup late in the week.

Rather, our Giants vs. Eagles prediction matches our Saints vs. Eagles prediction from Week 17.

Odds updated as of 2:30 p.m. ET on Jan. 6.

About those aforementioned questions — some 48 hours before kickoff, the following remain unanswered:

Will Hurts return to action after sitting out the last two weeks with a sprained right (throwing) shoulder? And if Hurts does return, will he have starting running back Miles Sanders (knee injury) behind him in the backfield?

On the other sideline, will New York coach Brian Daboll allow his starters to take the field in a completely inconsequential game? If so, who? And for how long?

All these mysteries add to the degrees of difficulty when trying to handicap this matchup. That’s why we can’t recommend laying or taking 14 points.

So we’re rolling with the Under, which should be a safe play no matter who does or doesn’t step on the gridiron.

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Starting with Philadelphia, our best guess is that Hurts will be under center. The game is too important to the Eagles’ grand plan to risk giving inconsistent backup Gardner Minshew a third start.

If Hurts does give it a go, we know he won’t be 100%. Which means we expect coach Nick Sirianni to be conservative with his offensive game plan — and brutally blunt with his instructions to his MVP-caliber quarterback.

Those instructions: Get rid of the football quickly when a pass play is called; hit the dirt at the first hint of pressure; and do not take off running unless you absolutely have to and you can safely get out of bounds.

In other words, we’re going to see an offensive approach from Philadelphia that harkens back to 1964 rather than Week 14 of this season (when Hurts and the Eagles blasted the Giants 48-22).

What about predicting New York’s approach to Sunday’s game? We can offer a far better educated guess on this one.

Even though Daboll played it close to the vest with his midweek comments to the media, it is highly unlikely that any key Giants will play meaningful snaps (if any at all).

Daboll would be a fool to risk injuries to the players who have helped New York (9-6-1) to its first winning season and playoff berth since 2016 (and just the second since the franchise won the Super Bowl in the 2011 campaign).

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At the very least, you can forget about seeing running back Saquon Barkley in uniform. The Comeback Player of the Year candidate will rest up for the playoffs and give way to second-string back Matt Breida.

Starting quarterback Daniel Jones, who has enjoyed the best season of his four-year career, also figures to sit. At most, Jones will play a series or two before giving way to veteran backup Tyrod Taylor.

Honestly, this should resemble a glorified preseason game for the Giants, with a bunch of backups playing most of the minutes. As a result, Daboll’s offensive game plan probably will be even more vanilla than Sirianni’s.

That’s why, if forced to decide, we’d lean toward betting Philadelphia -14 over New York +14. We could see the Eagles’ offense — especially if Hurts goes — facing little resistance and building a comfortable lead against a patchwork Giants defense, then sitting on the ball.

But even though a 27-7 Eagles win seems quite plausible, it’s simply too risky to lay that many points with so many unknown variables in the air.

Instead, we’ll call for a low-scoring game, with the final coming up at least a touchdown short of the posted total. Play the Under at FanDuel.

The Inquirer is not an online gambling operator, or a gambling site. We provide this information about sports betting for entertainment purposes only.