How to bet A.J. Brown in Super Bowl player props vs. Chiefs

During a six-game stretch to close out the 2022-23 regular season, Philadelphia Eagles wide receiver A.J. Brown looked like the second coming of Jerry Rice.

OK, maybe not that good. But Brown was every bit as dominant as any of his modern peers.

The numbers: 42 receptions, 665 yards, four touchdowns and six games with at least 95 receiving yards (including a trio of 100-yard performances).

Then the playoffs started, the Eagles’ offense erupted and Brown … turned into a ghost.

However, some unique circumstances resulted in that disappearance — circumstances we don’t believe will be present on Super Bowl Sunday against the Kansas City Chiefs.

In fact, as you’ll see with our A.J. Brown player prop predictions for Super Bowl 57, we expect the Eagles’ No. 1 wideout to turn in an MVP-caliber performance in Glendale, Arizona.

Odds via FanDuel updated as of 1:15 p.m. ET on Feb. 7.

Seven receptions, 50 yards, zero touchdowns. That’s what Brown produced in Philadelphia’s playoff wins over the New York Giants (38-7) and San Francisco 49ers (31-7).

But within those blowout results lie the aforementioned unique circumstances: The Eagles raced out to big first-half leads — 28-0 vs. New York, 21-7 vs. San Francisco — and barely threw the ball after halftime.

To that point: Six of Brown’s seven postseason receptions and 45 of his 50 yards came in the first quarter. After that, he was targeted eight additional times, but only one of those passes connected.

Come Sunday, Brown and his teammates will be facing a Chiefs team that lost three games this season by a total of 11 points. In other words, the odds of Philadelphia building another huge lead and shifting into cruise control are slim.

A tight game should result in more action for Brown, who has displayed game-breaking talent throughout his four-year career — especially in his first season in Philly.

He had a career-best 1,496 receiving yards, matched his career high with 11 touchdowns and averaged 17 yards per catch. Those numbers respectively ranked fourth, tied for third and third among all NFL receivers.

So not only is Brown overdue for a monster game, he’s absolutely got the talent to deliver it. And he’s facing a defense that has been torched by multiple big-play pass-catchers this year, including:

The Chargers’ Mike Williams (113 yards) and Keenan Allen (94), the Bucs’ Mike Evans (103), the Raiders’ Davante Adams (124 and 73), the Bills’ Stefon Diggs (148), the 49ers’ George Kittle (98), and the Bengals’ Ja’Marr Chase (97 and 75).

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Brown isn’t the Eagles’ possession receiver — that honor goes to DeVonta Smith. And while he did average nearly 5.2 receptions per game in the regular season, Brown eclipsed five catches just five times in 19 contests.

In two of those five instances, he finished with six receptions.

So we acknowledge that this is a bit of a contrarian bet, one that probably won’t offer much wiggle room.

Again, though, this bet is connected to an educated hunch that Eagles coach Nick Sirianni and quarterback Jalen Hurts are going to want to get the football to their most explosive playmaker early and often.

Sirianni and Hurts are just as aware as everyone else that Brown has been largely absent from Philadelphia’s attack in the playoffs. They also know that, unlike in the Giants and 49ers games, they’re going to need their No. 1 receiver to have a big game to knock off the Chiefs.

So just like in the first two playoff games, we should see a lot of early Hurts-to-Brown connections. And unlike the first two playoff games, those connections should continue well beyond the first quarter.

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The rationale behind this A.J. Brown player prop recommendation can be found directly above: We expect Hurts to waste no time looking in Brown’s direction.

Yes, Smith had more receptions this season than Brown (95-88). But Brown had more targets (145-136).

Also, as previously noted, Brown had the Eagles’ first reception in the NFC title game. He also caught a pass before Smith in Week 16 against Dallas, Week 17 against New Orleans and Week 18 against the Giants.

So in the last five games, Brown has a 4-1 edge over Smith in the head-to-head first-reception department. Our money says that goes to 5-1 on Sunday.

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Have we mentioned that we expect Brown to get a lot of early looks (and touches) in Super Bowl 57?

Well, we also expect him to snap a three-game touchdown drought.

For one thing, Brown has gone four straight games without catching a touchdown just once in his 67-game career (playoffs included). It happened early last season, but he got knocked out of the second of those four games before even catching a pass and missed the next contest.

Super Bowl oddsmakers also seem confident that Brown will find the end zone at State Farm Stadium. At FanDuel, only two players — Kansas City tight end Travis Kelce (-115) and Hurts (+100) have shorter odds than Brown (+120) to score an anytime touchdown.

As for why we’re isolating the first half with this prop, it’s pretty simple: The +300 odds FanDuel is offering on first-half TD are more than double Brown’s anytime TD odds.

Also, Philadelphia has scored more first-half points than any team in the NFL — and that trend has continued in the postseason, with seven of the team’s nine touchdowns coming before halftime.

Obviously, Brown hasn’t had a hand in any of those nine postseason TDs. However, of the 10 regular-season touchdowns that Brown hauled in from Hurts, seven came in the first half.

His other three TDs with Hurts pulling the trigger were the Eagles’ opening scores of the third quarter.

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