Is the NHL futures market overrating the Flyers? There’s good value to be had betting on Philly to finish last.

It’s going to be a long season for the Philadelphia Flyers.

Finally committed to a rebuild, the Flyers are projected to be one of the bottom-dwellers in the National Hockey League in 2023-24. They have the third-lowest Over/Under (76.5 points) in the Eastern Conference and are the seventh-favorite at +1000 to finish with the fewest points in the NHL next season. And still, these low bars to clear seem like an overestimation of what to expect out of Philadelphia in 2023-24.

Perhaps the market is a little higher on the Flyers because they’re a “big market team” or because of John Tortorella’s reputation for getting the most out of his roster, no matter the talent level. But both of those sentiments are not really based in the reality of the Flyers’ current situation. Not only is Philadelphia’s roster lacking in quality, but the Flyers are playing in a tough division inside of an Eastern Conference that has 14 teams that consider themselves viable playoff threats.

One of those teams, the Columbus Blue Jackets, is a long shot to make the postseason compared to the other teams in the Metropolitan Division and Eastern Conference. But the Jackets were aggressive for the second offseason in a row and their general manager, Jarmo Kekalainen, has made it clear he expects the Blue Jackets to be in the mix. His job depends on it.

The Flyers, meanwhile, hired a new general manager, Daniel Briere, and team president, Keith Jones, in the offseason and the two front office debutantes are in lockstep: This rebuild is just getting started.

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Despite the rebuilding message being loud and clear, the betting market seems to have more confidence in the Flyers than teams that are further along in their process like the Blue Jackets (+750), Arizona Coyotes (+850), and the Montreal Canadiens (+500).

While those teams have begun to fill out their lineup with ascendant young talent and some solid veteran players, the Flyers are still trying to strip things down and do whatever they can to move money out.

That philosophy — which is the right one in the long-term — has left this roster woefully short of high-end talent. Travis Konecny is a legitimate first-line player in the NHL, but outside of him there aren’t any players that would qualify as surefire top-six forwards and there’s a decent chance that Konecny gets moved before the Trade Deadline.

The defense is just as bleak.

This isn’t to say the Flyers should be the clear favorites in this market.

Two teams out West — the San Jose Sharks (+250) and Anaheim Ducks (+350) — are deserving of their spots at the top of the board and find themselves in a similar predicament as the Flyers.

Like Philadelphia, San Jose is still just trying to get a foothold on its situation. The Sharks were competitive for quite a while, but the window slammed shut and the team was left with plenty of bad contracts that were hindering its ability to turn things over to a new era. The Sharks have finally begun to do that by moving out Timo Meier, Erik Karlsson and other veterans, but there’s still plenty of work to be done before San Jose starts inching back toward relevance. It should also be noted that San Jose’s goaltending situation looks like it could be a disaster.

As for the Ducks, they’re a step or two ahead of Philadelphia and San Jose. Anaheim has one of the best prospect pipelines in the NHL and a handful of those players seem ready to make the jump to the show, giving the Ducks more upside than both San Jose and Philadelphia. Anaheim also spent the summer adding some useful veteran depth pieces like Alex Killorn and Radko Gudas to its ranks and has a decent goaltending setup as well. The Ducks will likely be bad, but at least there’s some potential here.

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It’s August, so there’s very little action coming in on the NHL and in time perhaps things will settle a bit more, but for right now I’d suggest that the odds for this bet seem wrong. I’d make the Sharks, Flyers, Ducks and Canadiens the four favorites to finish last and would listen to anybody who would argue that it should be priced as a two-horse race with San Jose and Philadelphia leading the way.

It’s funny to call a team projected to miss the playoffs by close to 20 points overrated, but it seems like the market is missing something when it comes to Philadelphia. A bet on the Flyers to finish last may seem like a tough thing for fans in the City of Brotherly Love to swallow, but if you look at it as a bet to “finish with the best odds to draft No. 1 overall” it’s not so bad, is it?

The Bet: Philadelphia Flyers to finish with fewest points (+1000, DraftKings)

The Inquirer is not an online gambling operator, or a gambling site. We provide this information about sports betting for entertainment purposes only.