Global Soccer odds, predictions: Our three best non-EPL bets this weekend

Fans of global soccer leagues not named the English Premier League get a number of great matches this weekend.

In Italy, Juventus welcome Roma for a battle between two perennial Serie A top-four contenders. In Germany, Bayern Munich faces its first real “test” of the season as it welcomes Borussia Monchengladbach to the Allianz Arena while two top-four hopefuls — Mainz 05 and Bayer Leverkusen — also play a pivotal fixture. Finally, consistent Ligue 1 winners Paris Saint-Germain face their first real match of the season at home against Monaco.

But, which matches across the remaining top four domestic competitions warrant betting action? Without further delay, allow me to present my trio of best bets for matches outside the English Premier League. All odds come courtesy of BetMGM and are reflective at time of writing.

Although Udinese will represent Monza’s easiest opponent so far this season, the Serie A newcomers have a defense made of glass and will likely continue to struggle.

In two fixtures against Torino and Napoli, Monza has conceded six goals and a whopping 13 big scoring chances, per fotmob.com. Plus, in addition to ranking dead-last in the Italian top-flight in expected goals against (5.4), Monza simultaneously ranks 17th in both shot-creating actions against and penalty area touches against to go along with a T-20th ranking in goal-creating actions against.

On the flip-side, Udinese’s attack appears to be improving. After struggling at AC Milan on Matchday One, manager Andrea Sottil’s squad generated 1.22 expected goals and two big scoring chances last week against Salernitana.

Furthermore, Udinese did well last season to clear this benchmark against low-quality opposition. In 10 fixtures against Serie A’s five worst sides, it surpassed this total in six matches while generating 1.55 expected goals per 90 minutes.

Based on those trends, I’ll back this market at +105 or better.

Both of these sides have started strong in the Spanish top-flight, but I believe it’s time to sell high on the Betis attack.

In two fixtures against Elche and Mallorca, Betis have managed a combined 5.2 expected goals. However, all three of its goals against the former came while playing up a man. Then, against the latter, Betis scored both of its goals off penalty kicks. All told, manager Manuel Pelligrini’s side generated only 0.7 non-penalty expected goals against Mallorca against 2.2 expected goals, per fbref.com.

Now Betis faces an Osasuna defense that has conceded only one goal on two big scoring chances through two matches against Sevilla and Cadiz. Additionally, while Osasuna sits eighth in the xGA table, they rank sixth in shot-creating actions against and T-6th in goal-creating actions against.

All that said, I don’t expect much from an Osasuna attack that generated zero big scoring chances in this exact fixture last season and is averaging only 0.79 non-penalty expected goals per 90 minutes this season.

Back this market at anything better than -135.

The Paris Saint-Germain attack featuring Neymar Jr., Kylian Mbappe and Lionel Messi is exactly as good as everyone thinks, but its defense has steadily performed worse as the opposition quality increases.

That was capped off last week against Lille, which created 1.68 expected goals and generated three big scoring chances against the PSG defense. Meanwhile, Monaco’s attack looks reinvigorated through its first three fixtures. Although opposition quality hasn’t been anything worth acknowledging, manager Philippe Clement’s side has combined to create 2.23 expected goals per 90 minutes, per fbref.com.

Put that up against a PSG defense that has conceded at least once to Monaco in six of its last seven head-to-head meetings and I expect the visitors grab at least a goal to cash the latter leg of this parlay.

That said, Monaco is absolutely no match for PSG, who should cruise in this match. Although the Monaco attack has looked great through three fixtures, its defense leaves a lot to be desired. Against Strasbourg, Rennes and Lens, Monaco has conceded six goals on six expected along with eight big scoring chances.

Going up against a PSG attack that has scored 17 goals on 21 big chances in its first three fixtures and is 18-0-2 (W-L-D) in its last 20 at home, expect the underdogs to leave hat in hand.

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