The Phillies have a José Alvarado problem. Here’s (at least) four options to fix it

If Dave Dombrowski’s mission wasn’t clear before the All-Star break, the fog should have lifted in the ninth inning on Friday night. The Phillies needed three outs. José Alvarado got them one. A one-run lead became a one-run loss. The end of the world? No. Unless the red flags go unheeded.

Nobody should be writing off Alvarado. Volatility is the name of the game but for the most dominant of relievers. It has been more than a year since we’ve seen Alvarado perform in that realm. This is not his first rough patch. He has consistently bounced back to being a guy who any manager would love to have at his disposal.

Early last September, Alvarado had a 2½-week stretch where he allowed 15 baserunners in 7⅓ innings. Eight of them scored. He went on to strike out nine of the last 16 batters he faced in the regular season. In the postseason, he stranded 7-of-8 inherited runners and allowed one run of his own in eight innings of work. He is a pitcher who tends to find a way.

Maybe the rebound began on Sunday. Alvarado was back out there, and he was back to getting the job done. Rob Thomson called on his lefty to protect a five-run lead in the eighth. Alvarado barely broke a sweat. One baserunner, two strikeouts, 11 of 14 pitches for strikes.

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But Alvarado’s struggles are not irrelevant. In his eight outings prior to Sunday, he threw just 55% of his pitches for strikes. He struck out six of the 37 batters he faced while walking five. Sixteen baserunners in 7⅓ innings is an alarming rate.

Hope is not a winning strategy. Not when the trade deadline is eight days away and the Phillies’ path to a title is as navigable as it ever may be again. Now is not the time to sit back and feel good about where you are. It is the time to prepare yourself for where you are going. Worse comes to worst, there is no penalty for winning a title with more arms than you probably needed.

The odds say the Phillies will almost certainly find themselves needing more than they have. That was the case last postseason. It would be the case this year even if Alvarado was operating at a high level. That he isn’t only adds to the benefit of adding another high-leverage arm before the July 30 trade deadline.

Dombrowski has plenty of variables to juggle in what is shaping up to be a complicated market. As of Sunday morning, 23 of 30 teams were within five games of a playoff spot. The big question isn’t necessarily who will be buying and who will be selling. There is a price for everything. But the closer a team is to competing for a playoff spot — on paper — the more leverage it has in negotiations. You want what we got? You’re going to have to make it worth our while to sell.

Trades are never as easy as those of us on the outside tend to imagine. But then, Dombrowski has his office for a reason. There may not be a more important eight-day stretch of his tenure as Phillies president.

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There is no either-or. A right-handed bat is pretty close to a necessity. The Atlanta Braves and Los Angeles Dodgers have bullpens brimming with lefties. There is a lights-out lefty starter on the trade market who could end up starting Game 1 or Game 2 for either of the Phillies’ chief National League rivals. The White Sox’ Garrett Crochet in Dodger blue would make a whole lot of sense.

The bullpen should be just as big of a priority.

Four names that I keep coming back to:

1) Carlos Estevez, RHP, Los Angeles Angels: There’s a lot to be said for a guy who throws strikes and gets results. That’s all Estevez has done this season while saving 17 of 20 games for the Angels. There were long stretches of last season where he looked like a closer not long for the job. But he has transformed himself this season, walking just four batters in 31 innings. That has not been his profile for most of his career. But if this new him lasts, he deserves a long look from the Phillies.

2) Jason Adam, RHP, Tampa Bay Rays: Another steady strike thrower, who has a 2.07 ERA in 160⅔ innings over the last three seasons for the Rays. He has blown nine saves in 35 save situations over the last two seasons.

3) Kirby Yates, RHP, Texas Rangers: The walk rate isn’t ideal (4.2 batters per nine innings), but he is 37 and a free agent at the end of the season and could be a viable lower-cost option. Yates saved 41 games for the San Diego Padres in 2019 and is 17-for-17 as the Rangers’ primary closer this season.

4) Yimi García, RHP, Toronto Blue Jays: Like Yates, he could make some sense as a lower-cost rental option. He struck out the side on Saturday in his return from a monthlong stay on the injured list with a sore elbow. The rate stats are superb: 12.4 K/9, 2.2 BB/9, and 0.9 HR/9 with five saves and a 2.48 ERA in 29 innings.

Strikes and experience should be the priorities. The market has barely begun to unfold. But the Phillies need to be one of its most active players.